Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. In this series, I look at 10 measures to show what makes a great retirement-oriented stock.
Few things have transformed the global economy as much as steel. With all the uses for the heavy metal that have bolstered infrastructure and construction projects around the world for years, steel has played a vital role in economic growth. At the center of the world steel industry, ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT ) has built itself into a huge leader. But with European woes having weighed on the company for years, can ArcelorMittal recover? Below, we'll revisit how ArcelorMittal does on our 10-point scale.
The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.
Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.
When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:
- Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
- Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
- Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
- Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
- Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at ArcelorMittal.
What We Want to See
Pass or Fail?
|Size||Market cap > $10 billion||$22.5 billion||Pass|
|Consistency||Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years||3 years||Fail|
|Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years||2 years||Fail|
|Stock stability||Beta < 0.9||1.48||Fail|
|Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20%||(68.5%)||Fail|
|Valuation||Normalized P/E < 18||10.46||Pass|
|Dividends||Current yield > 2%||5.2%||Pass|
|5-year dividend growth > 10%||(3.6%)||Fail|
|Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years||0 years||Fail|
|Payout ratio < 75%||182.5%||Fail|
|Total score||3 out of 10|
Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.
Since we looked at ArcelorMittal last year, the company has dropped a point. The stock has seen a similar decline, falling 10% in the past year as the steel industry struggles to support a world with waning growth prospects.
ArcelorMittal is the biggest steelmaker in the world. The company is also vertically integrated, meaning that it owns its own iron ore production facilities. That allows it to bypass third-party iron ore producers such as Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF ) and Vale (NYSE: VALE ) , giving it a vital edge when iron ore prices are high.
But ArcelorMittal is trading at a big discount to its book value. Overall steel demand is only rising very slowly, and with a potential slowdown looming in China, it's hard to be sure exactly when the industry will recover more quickly. Moreover, unlike U.S.-based Nucor (NYSE: NUE ) and U.S. Steel (NYSE: X ) , ArcelorMittal has particularly strong exposure to Europe, where many fear that a recession is imminent.
Analysts are increasingly convinced that things in the steel industry will get worse before they get better. A rash of downgrades hit the industry late last month, with ArcelorMittal failing to escape the carnage. Until earnings can catch up with even modest multiples, steel stocks may struggle to hit bottom.
For retirees and other conservative investors, buying cyclical stocks at the bottom of the cycle is typically a recipe for long-term success. But you have to be comfortable taking a lot of risk. If you're not willing to bet on a turnaround, then you'll want to look beyond ArcelorMittal to find some safe alternatives.
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.
If you really want to retire rich, no one stock will get the job done. Instead, you need to know how to prepare for your golden years. The Motley Fool's latest special report will give you all the details you need to get a smart investing plan going, plus it reveals three smart stocks for a rich retirement. But don't waste another minute -- click here and read it today.
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