When investors think of AI stocks, Upstart (UPST -2.77%) may not be the first that comes to mind. However, the company has a strong claim to the title. It's harnessed the power of machine learning and data science for a new credit platform that has been more accurate at assessing creditworthiness than conventional FICO scores, according to Upstart.
As a stock, Upstart has been one of the more volatile names in the market as the business has considerable potential, but it has also struggled to turn a profit in recent years. Plus, any credit business is inherently risky, since loans could go bad if the economy sours, or Upstart's credit partners could stop buying its loans, eliminating the funding it needs to operate.
Upstart's latest earnings report offered more reasons to be optimistic. Its transaction volume jumped 102% in the first quarter to 240,706 with originations up 89% to $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, its conversion rate improved from 14% to 19.1% because of an update in its AI model that makes as many as 1 million predictions per applicant to determine whether to lend to the applicant and what interest rate to charge.
Overall, revenue jumped 67% to $213 million, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improved from a loss of $20.3 million to a profit of $42.6 million.
Now, several Wall Street analysts have turned bullish on Wall Street, and some see considerable upside to the stock.
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What Wall Street thinks about Upstart
According to Tipranks, of the 11 analysts that have rated Upstart in the last three months, four analysts rate it a buy and seven call it a hold. However, the average price target for the stock is $65.33, or a 39% upside on average.
Among the analysts that are most bullish on Upstart are Peter Christiansen of Citi, who rates the stock a buy and gives it a price target of $83; Dan Dolev of Mizuho, who gives it a buy rating and a price target of $83; and Kyle Peterson of Needham, who gives it a buy rating and a price target of $70.
Christiansen has noted Upstart's increasing interest from private credit managers and improving partner network. Dan Dolev recently reiterated a buy rating after double upgrading the stock last year in response to the company's improved profitability, and it's capturing the benefits from AI in its updated model. Kyle Peterson of Needham also sees an improving funding backdrop and balance sheet at Upstart driving the stock higher.
Is Upstart a buy?
Wall Street forecasts on their own aren't a good reason to buy the stock, but they can alert you to good buys. Upstart has its share of naysayers as well. Nearly 25% of the stock is sold short, and Goldman Sachs gave it a sell rating in February with a price target of $15.
However, Upstart's business is improving in multiple ways. In addition to the preceding numbers, the company is increasingly tapping into the auto and home loan markets, which represent the biggest addressable markets in front of it. In the first quarter, auto originations grew five times over the last year to $61 million, while home loans grew six times to $41 million. That still represents a small fraction of the company's business, but there is potential for it to get much larger.
Upstart's business model is also scalable. The tech platform fully automates more than 90% of loan applications and can therefore scale up to make more loans at a relatively low marginal cost. Operating expenses grew by just 11% in the first quarter even as fee-based revenue was up 34%.
Overall, Upstart's technology appears to give it a competitive advantage, and it's seeing momentum in customer demand and funding partnerships. If its momentum continues, its profit should rapidly improve.
With a long runway of growth, Upstart looks like a good buy.
