What happened
Shares of First Republic (FRCB) traded nearly 14% higher at one point earlier today, ahead of the bank's scheduled first-quarter earnings report, which is set to be released after the market closes today. This will most likely be the most important earnings report the bank has ever had to make. As of 11:26 a.m. ET today, shares of First Republic have pared some of those gains and are trading more than 7% higher.
So what
First Republic has been more caught up in the recent banking crisis than the broader industry. After the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, investors became very concerned about First Republic due to the number of uninsured deposits the bank had and the billions of unrealized losses sitting in its bond portfolio.
This made depositors nervous, and they pulled an estimated $70 billion of deposits from the bank at one point, according to The Wall Street Journal. The 11 largest banks in the U.S. also deposited $30 billion into the bank in an effort to shore up liquidity.
When first-quarter earnings are released today, the big focus will be on deposits, specifically how much in outflows the bank experienced in the first quarter and how deposits have trended in April.
"There are a lot of questions if the bank will be profitable after Q1," said Morningstar analyst Eric Compton, according to Barrons. "If they are not, what is the plan? What will they do about it? Is there a way out of it?"
The issue with losing deposits is that the bank has to replace them with higher-cost sources of funding. First Republic is also a heavy lender of mortgages that yield low interest rates, many of which carry fixed interest rates that don't reprice as the Federal Reserve raises rates.
Now what
While First Republic's stock is down 87% this year, I do expect the bank's earnings to have taken a big hit in the first quarter. It's likely going to be an uphill battle unless First Republic somehow got back a lot of the deposits it lost.
That's why I would recommend selling this recent rally if you own the stock. Things are too uncertain right now to gamble on the earnings report, and the bank's plans are also uncertain.
