If you were to peruse a list of stocks trading near 52-week lows, you'd likely find a bunch of bad businesses. Indeed, I struggled to find any that would be worthy of a $5,000 investment. In short, investors should approach poorly performing stocks with a healthy dose of skepticism. They're probably down for good reason.
However, it's sometimes still possible to find promising growth stocks trading near lows. I believe that's the case right now for Kellogg (K -1.23%) and Black Rifle Coffee (BRCC -0.24%). Here's why investors might consider this duo right now.
1. Kellogg
Before you tar and feather me for calling Kellogg a growth stock, please hear me out. It's true that the company is over 100 years old and that net sales were only up 10% in the first quarter of 2023 -- this hardly seems worthy of a growth stock label. However, Kellogg will split into two separate companies this year, and one of these could rightly be considered a growth investment.
The North American breakfast cereal business will be handed off to a new entity called WK Kellogg Co., and it will continue paying the dividend that investors have come to expect with this high-yield dividend stock. For its part, the newly formed Kellanova will handle everything else, including snacks like Pringles and Cheez-It, cereals in international markets, and its plant-based meat brand MorningStar Farms.
Further, Kellanova will be comprised of 80% of Kellogg's current business. Management is basically spinning out the North American cereal business -- perhaps the most modest growth opportunity it has in its portfolio.
In my view, investors get the best of both worlds here. Kellogg's portfolio of brands is top-notch and sales are consistent. In short, investors can feel comfortable investing a large sum like $5,000 in this business.
However, by spinning off the lower-growth opportunity into WK Kellogg, investors also get a chance at some market-beating growth with Kellanova. That makes this a unique situation to consider, especially considering Kellogg stock trades near 52-week lows.
2. Black Rifle Coffee
Right up front, understand that Kellogg is everything that Black Rifle Coffee is not. Whereas Kellogg is well-known, Black Rifle is relatively young. Kellogg went public in 1952 -- investors know what they're getting at this point. Black Rifle went public in 2022 via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC).
In short, there's plenty of reason to approach Black Rifle stock with caution. And I wouldn't recommend investing $5,000 unless that represents a very small percentage of your net worth. That said, there's also good reason to give Black Rifle a look here near its 52-week lows.
For starters, Black Rifle has all the makings of a high-loyalty consumer brand. It has the largest branded coffee subscription business today, and direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales comprised over 50% of revenue in the first quarter of 2023. Achieving this level of DTC sales is impressive for a brand that still has relatively low consumer awareness.
Moreover, Black Rifle emphasizes hiring military veterans and giving to veteran charities. With over 16.5 million veterans in the U.S., this emphasis resonates with a large swath of the population who have either served or who have veteran family members.
The strength and potential of the Black Rifle brand is the starting point for an investment thesis, and the company has some compelling growth opportunities that round out the story.
It recently started gaining momentum in the wholesale category. The company rolled its products out in over 4,400 Walmart locations about a year ago and has already captured 3.8% of Walmart's coffee sales. That level of success has grabbed the attention of other national mass-merchant chains. And management says it plans to do another major wholesale rollout in 2024.
Turning to the ready-to-drink category, Black Rifle only launched products in 2020. But these coffee beverages should be in over 100,000 convenience store locations by the end of the year. Sales data says it's already risen to take the third-place spot for sales, trailing only Starbucks and Monster.
Finally, Black Rifle only has 29 physical stores as of Q1 -- 16 are owned by the company and the rest are franchised -- but long-term, management believes there's space for 1,300 locations nationwide.
For perspective, Starbucks has over 16,000 U.S. locations, and Dutch Bros aspires to have 4,000 locations someday. In short, 1,300 locations doesn't seem like an overly ambitious target for Black Rifle. And even opening up a fraction of this goal could dramatically increase the company's overall revenue.
If you're looking for growth potential, a stock trading near its low, and a measure of safety, Kellogg stock is your best bet here. It may not have enough growth to beat the market (we'll have to wait and see once Kellanova is its own company), but I believe investors are unlikely to lose much on this investment long term.
In contrast, Black Rifle carries much higher risk, and it likely shouldn't make up more than a minor portion of an investment portfolio. That said, the potential for outsized growth is certainly there -- and now that it's down more than 80% from its all-time high, it could be worth a small position.
