By
Toby Shute
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More Articles
August 20, 2007
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PetroChina (NYSE: PTR ) has finally eased excessive enthusiasm surrounding its fabled oil find. The world's second-largest public oil company after ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM ) acknowledged last week that its big discovery in Bohai Bay might not be the bonanza investors believed it to be.
But hey, I'd already told you this wasn't that big a deal. At the time, it looked like China would get about four months' worth of oil from the Jidong Nanpu field. Now, given PetroChina's recoverability estimate (632 million BOE) and the EIA's latest demand forecast for China (7.6 million barrels/day), we're looking at less than three months of supply.
And that's at today's consumption levels. Chinese crude oil demand is growing in excess of 5% annually, and production from the field won't ramp up for years.
Between the Jidong Nanpu hoopla and the announcement of a People's IPO, there was something of a frenzy to grab PetroChina shares. The Oracle of Omaha appears to have taken this as an opportunity to lighten up his position just a tad. In hindsight, this turned out to be the top. Buffett still holds a large stake in the firm, however, and there are plenty of fireworks still to come.
Now that the wind has been let out of the firm's sails a bit, PetroChina's shares are suddenly looking more attractive. Between this company, Petrobras (NYSE: PBR ) , and Sasol (NYSE: SSL ) , you have three solid, dividend-paying energy giants growing faster than their American and European peers. While I'm not quite ready to write off powerhouses such as Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) and Total (NYSE: TOT ) , their emerging-market rivals look like the better buys today.
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Fool contributor Toby Shute doesn't have a position in any company mentioned. Sasol is a Global Gains recommendation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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