Get Your Guess?

By Seth Jayson December 6, 2007 Comments (0)

2 Recommendations

Once again, we have one of those so-so monthly sales reports. Discounters like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Costco (NYSE: COST), and Target (NYSE: TGT) do better than expected, but at the same time, we get ominous warnings -- like the one from Target -- that post-Thanksgiving sales haven't been so exciting. Meanwhile, apparel retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) have posted flat and uninspiring comps.

Where do you go for relief? You could do worse than Guess? (NYSE: GES). As this week's earnings report shows, the comeback apparel retailer (and wholesaler) is continue to outperform most of its peers. Take a peek at the raw numbers. Global revenue increased 43% to nearly $470 million, while European revenue (which earned an almost 29% operating margin) increased at a quick 79% pace. North American same-store sales were up 15.8% in the quarter, and although management guided Q4 to mid-single-digits, it noted that sales seem to be mirroring the Q3 pace so far.

There were, of course, numbers worth watching. Gross margins were pinched a bit -- owing to lower product margins in Europe, according to what management said in the call. And inventory is beefing up. Again, management says that's necessary to support the new store growth. Makes sense, but always worth watching.

Clearly, Guess? is bucking the trend that's afflicting other apparel retailers. That's what can happen when you're working from a smaller base of sales, and gaining on the competition from a few yards back. But to me, the best reason to own Guess? is that it's truly an international company. For the first three-quarters of this year, North America provided 43% of operating profit. Guess? relies less and less on U.S. sales -- and that's good insurance in our sagging economy.

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DocumentId: 548199, ~/articles/articlehandler.aspx, 7/4/2008 10:32:33 PM, No ticker

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Related Tickers

Guess?, Inc.

GES Down! $35.66 -1.09 (-2.97%) 1:00 PM
CAPS Rating:
338 Outperforms
52 Underperforms
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