Recs

5

Foolish Forecast: Watch eBay Warily

Online auctioneer eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY  ) has been through a lot in recent months -- new CEO, new fee structure, and the same worldwide economy crisis as the rest of us. Some see the buying opportunity of a lifetime, while others fear that the cheapness could be a grand illusion. Do we even have enough information to figure out who's right and who's wrong?

What Fools say:
Here's how eBay's Motley Fool CAPS rating stacks up against some of its peers and competitors:

 

Market Cap (billions)

Trailing P/E Ratio

CAPS Rating (5 max)

Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  )

$22.6

38.5

**

Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO  )

$15.6

18.8

**

eBay

$16.9

8.7

***

MercadoLibre (Nasdaq: MELI  )

$0.57

47.0

****

Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK  )

$0.22

N/A

*

Data taken from Motley Fool CAPS and Yahoo! Finance on 01/20/2009.

eBay has scheduled is fourth-quarter conference call for this afternoon.

New management and a new fee structure seem to have angered a few of our CAPS commentators. All-Star ripstruct82 can't sell items on eBay anymore due to a "good, just not perfect" rating of shipping services. "I am now banned from selling, and many others are experiencing the same problem. Get out of this stock as fast as you can." Others have chimed in with similar stories of woe.

However, BoiseKen is bullish: "still throwing off loads and loads of cash." The current bargain-basement P/E ratio creates "deep value for a growth stock."

What management does:
These figures are based on non-GAAP data to remove the one-time effects of that $1.4 billion writedown of Skype's goodwill. You'd think that people would buy and sell more stuff in cheap auctions when budgets tighten up, but it looks like the reverse is happening here.

Margins

6/2007

9/2007

12/2007

3/2008

6/2008

9/2008

Gross

78.0%

77.6%

77.0%

76.6%

75.9%

75.2%

Operating

25.3%

25.4%

26.1%

25.8%

25.7%

25.9%

Net

17.0%

16.9%

17.4%

17.2%

17.1%

17.1%

Free Cash Flow/Revenue

28.5%

28.5%

28.5%

28.9%

28.7%

28.3%

Growth (YOY)

6/2007

9/2007

12/2007

3/2008

6/2008

9/2008

Revenue

29.3%

29.3%

28.5%

27.6%

24.9%

20.4%

Earnings

25.0%

33.1%

37.5%

30.8%

25.1%

21.9%

Data from Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

One Fool says:
The proof is in the tiramisu, as always. If eBay's new policies are indeed scaring off or shutting out quality sellers, then the company's financial results will suffer dearly -- independent of whatever the macroeconomic picture is doing. On the other hand, the changes could simply remove bad sellers and end up creating happier buyers. That would mean higher sales over time, after a short but painful period of shaking out the slow and the dishonest from the seller crowd.

Gross merchandise volume in the last quarter was down 1% year over year. That's not enough data to tell "scared sellers" apart from "shakeout." Keep an eye on that particular stat over the next quarter or three to get a true read on how eBay's changes are really working out. Hey, great investing takes patience.

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MercadoLibre is a Motley Fool Global Gains pick. eBay is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. eBay and Amazon.com are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. Or just sign up for a free CAPS account to get in on the fun and profit.

Fool contributor Anders Bylund holds no position in any of the companies discussed here; he is a very infrequent eBay buyer and seller. You can check out Anders' holdings if you like, and Foolish disclosure is the Punxsutawney Phil of financial forecasting.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 21, 2009, at 2:09 PM, ScarletVarlet wrote:

    As a ten year veteran of eBay I must say I feel their glory days are rapidly receding into the past.

    Many users are angered and frustrated by yet-another annoying interface change thrown at them. Personally, I find it gives me some eye strain and is too busy. Less is more, an eBay Lite view would be a welcome option. All this javascript is whizzy irritation and distraction where users really just want to buy, sell and search and don't go to eBay for a beautiful web experience.

    Working in the logistics industry for years taught me the value of a simple, easy to navigate interface. When an airline changed their air cargo website from functional HTML to whizzy flash we found it time consuming to use and I contacted my counterpart there and advised them it was now a detriment to both our business and theirs. The person on the other end conveyed much suffering and being put upon in one sigh, stating it was the choice of the executives. He didn't care for it either.

    Change for the sake of change may enhance a resume or portfolio for some worker bees, but it must be done with utmost care, lest it impact the bottom line.

    When visiting one of eBay's online chat rooms, the very chat rooms eBay staffers appear to avoid at all cost, the venom and frustration of users was palpable. How many more times can eBay afford to anger their customers, particularly sellers?

  • Report this Comment On January 21, 2009, at 2:13 PM, ScarletVarlet wrote:

    A parting shot - too bad I can't edit a post, or can't find an apparent way - eBay is in an enviable position during economic downturns. People will turn to the online auctioneer to clear out their garages, closets and attics to raise some scratch and where better than on the one site most responsible for redistributing the world's stuff one piece at a time?

    eBay would better serve themselves catering to these one-off or infrequent sellers as in their moment of looking for a few dollars they may turn into the entrepeneurs eBay depends upon to become regulars.

    Opportunity is knocking, is anyone listening?

  • Report this Comment On January 21, 2009, at 2:28 PM, RicRoe wrote:

    Mr Donahoe will pump up the growth in listings citing a now useless metric as millions of listings are placed for free by his favored Diamond Sellers.

    Mr Donahoe will pump up new PayPal accounts which he will claim are a result of his declaration that sellers may no longer announce they accept checks or moeny orders to complete purchases. Truth is that many new accounts can be attributed to the resurrected Micropayments accounts which require users to open second accounts in order to take advantage of a reduced fee structure.

    Mr Donahoe will attribute eBay's decline to the faltering economy, and will fail to shoulder the resopnsibility for failed policies and fee increases which have severely damaged the marketplace.

    Mr Donahoe will continue to assert that eBay is on the right path for a better future, ignoring the stampede of small sellers his policies and system changes chased from the core markeplace.

    In other words, Donahoe will continue to run like a bull through a china shop, changing the business model from one that was the most successful into one which imitates unsuccessfully so many other Internet retail sites.

    Mr Donahoe is used to being a consultant, where he simply makes recommendations, collects a check for his time and effort and walking away.

    In assuming the reigns at eBay, Mr Donahoe still performs as if he was in a consulting role, imposing changes and policy revisions into a marketplace with which he has virtually no experience in as a buyer or as a seller.

    It is this lack of experience that has brought eBay to the tipping point and has the company facing a steady stream of buyers and sellers bolting to other more user friendly venues.

    Sellers are unable to profit from selling on eBay as the fee structure under Mr Donahoe has made it impossible for sellers to offer pricing which eBay was famous for while still allowing sellers to receive a reasonable markup on products listed.

    Until Mr Donahoe faces the reality that it is his poorly implemented policy and system changes that have brought the site to its current state of poor performance, eBay can be expected to face further declines in market share over the coming year.

    At this stage, buyers and sellers have voted with their feet, and moved to newer and more friendly venues that are much more buyer friendly, and which also enable sellers to offer better pricing while still being able to make a reasonable profit.

    The true growth will be in a spread of new and smaller sites which are currently realizing unprecedented expansion due to Mr Donahoe's alienation of buyers and sellers from eBay.

  • Report this Comment On January 21, 2009, at 5:14 PM, NYMArts wrote:

    The Cliche "Can't see the forest for the trees" applies here.

    Sight of THIS FACT has been Completely Lost :

    Ebay is No Longer Recession - proof

    BECAUSE THEY NO LONGER "ALLOW" us to collect checks and money orders.

    Ebay Stepped WAY OUT OF LINE ( even broke the law...Sherman Act) when they stuck their BUTTINSKI NOSE where it Does Not Belong.

    5 years of doing business with only checks and money orders. Not ONE problem. THAT's Fraud - proof AND recession - proof.

    100% satisfied clients across the USA.

    Ebay is only a venue. It produces NOTHING. Ebay got "too big for its breaches".

    Now Ebay (as it was) will die.

    Stock will become worthless.

    Economy, Schmeconomy....

    Checks and money orders are Paramount to success.

    As proven in "The History of Ebay".

    Go Ahead, I DARE EBAY to "allow" Checks and Money Orders again,

    and watch the stock go back up.

  • Report this Comment On January 22, 2009, at 10:53 AM, dhpearce wrote:

    Until eBay accepts their decline is a direct result of gestapo management and an intolerable attitude toward their sellers, their stock will continue to plummet. Yesterday, eBay turned the Powerseller Account Managers telephones off with a recording attributing it to inclement weather. When I was able to reach someone (who was of no help) and inquired about the weather, I was told it was a beautiful day. The truth is they could not handle the volume of Powerseller complaints as they were ending auctions that referenced Checks and Money Orders. I ended 47 auctions yesterday and I am closing my eBay store today. eBay Powersellers must unite and send a strong message to the Board and Shareholders, "Enough". We will no longer tolerate the dictatorship mentality. To Mr. Donahoe regarding his frustration, I say, "THE FISH STINKS FROM THE HEAD!"

  • Report this Comment On January 23, 2009, at 6:57 AM, NYMArts wrote:

    Please now visit: nymartsDOTcom.

    Click on the REQUIRED READING links for an EYEFUL of what's in store for Ebay this year.

    Do It Now Before you do another thing.....

    NOW !

  • Report this Comment On January 27, 2009, at 1:37 PM, ocdgirl2000 wrote:

    Ebay's prime pick, the Diamond seller, buy.com, has been given the top exposure, the best selling deal, and is ebay's favorite seller.

    Now, go and look at the site called re-seller ratings, and find buy.com's feedback ratings. They are a 2.86 out of 10.

    That should tell everyone something about the choices and decisions the CEO's and Board of Directors of the company are making.

    You might also want to read something from Alan Lewis. He used to work there, and has some amazing insights into how this company has lost it's mojo.

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Related Tickers

2/14/2012 4:00 PM
EBAY $32.96 Down -0.20 -0.60%
eBay CAPS Rating: ***
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MELI $95.23 Down -0.25 -0.26%
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