Stock Smackdown: Cramer vs. CAPS

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There's no denying that Mad Money host Jim Cramer is entertaining, popular, and passionate. On many occasions, he's even right. So he's smart, funny, and the closest thing to a stock market rock star -- but is he smarter than you?

Cramming for Cramer
The Fool's free investing community, Motley Fool CAPS, aggregates the opinion of more than 135,000 members, assigning ratings for each stock's likelihood of outperforming or underperforming the market.

Below, we look at some top stocks that Cramer picked and panned during last week's "lightning rounds," and compare his opinions to the CAPS community's view of their future:

Stock

Lightning Round Show Date

Cramer's Rating 

CAPS Rating

CME Group (NYSE: CME)

Monday

Bullish

****

Manitowoc

Monday

Bearish

*****

Altria (NYSE: MO)

Tuesday

Bearish

****

ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)

Tuesday

Bearish

****

Suntech Power (NYSE: STP)

Wednesday

Bearish

****

Cameco

Wednesday

Bearish

*****

NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA)

Thursday

Bearish

****

YUM! Brands

Thursday

Bullish

****

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)

Friday

Bullish

***

Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG)

Friday

Bearish

**

Cramer says …
At what point does a tax burden become unsustainably vast, destroying the business on which it's been imposed? Cramer thinks we may be approaching that tipping point now with Altria. The cost of a pack of cigarettes in some cities is around $9 or more, with federal taxes contributing $1 of that after a massive tax hike back in April. In some states, including New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, taxes can compose 40% or more of the average cost of a pack. Some analysts -- and Altria subsidiary Phillip Morris itself -- think this hefty taxation will cause a 9% annual decline in cigarette consumption.

As Cramer opined:

It kills me that I sold it...I feel that Altria is Phillip Morris...here is the problem with Altria, why I decided to sell it... I decided to sell it because I could not take the headline risk anymore... I was able to deal with it under the Republicans, I knew there would be no problem... under the Democrats, it seemed like their would be no problem... but when I go to my newsstand and I talk to my friend Sid, all he tells me is that when it got to $8.50, the customers finally quit... I think that that is going to catch up with Altria... but the dividend is fine... I think that it is just not going to go anywhere... it is kind of like owning a bond with a little more risk.

CAPS says …
The tax hikes are difficult, but cigarette makers are passing along a large portion of those costs to consumers. The Centers for Disease Control estimates that in the past, a 10% hike in taxes resulted in a 4% decline in the number of smokers. While the CDC expects the huge increase in federal levies to spur as many as 1 million people to quit, there are still 45 million adult smokers in the U.S.

That kind of resistance to confiscatory tax policies brightens CAPS member Dvinity's outlook for Altria:

As the market leader Altria should be able to pass the recent tax hikes through to customers without losing market share. And, the acquisition of UST should provide the next growth engine for Altria. Although, the litigation possibility still remains.

Have your say
While CAPS members may stand with Jim Cramer, or on opposite sides of the field, our investor-intelligence community is more than the opinions of a handful of All-Stars, even if they are TV personalities. What do you think? Is Cramer right, or off his rocker? Head to CAPS right now and sound off with your thoughts on whether Altria is going up in smoke.

With its four-star rating, Altria is one of the top-rated companies in the CAPS Tobacco tag, which carries a three-star average. Motley Fool CAPS is a great place to start your own research on these stocks. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page. Best of all, it's free.

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NVIDIA is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. Suntech Power is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. The Fool owns shares of and options on Cameco. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey also owns shares of and options on Cameco, but does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings. Give the Motley Fool's disclosure policy a full checkup.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2009, at 11:33 AM, pondee619 wrote:

    "a 10% hike in taxes resulted in a 4% decline in the number of smokers"

    BUT, what is the effect upon Altria? That 10% hike was not to their revenue but to the governments. Unless they can raise THEIR price that 4% cut in smokers will cost them money. Even if they can pass the whole tax increase to the users, Altria still losses the 4%. Are enough kids and/or non-americans taking up the habit/addiction to off set the loss due to increased taxes and restraint or use?

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2009, at 8:45 PM, truthisntstupid wrote:

    OK. People keep looking at ATRIA through rose-colored glasses. Keep it up. It WILL cost you money, unless the government backs off. And I actually hope the government does back off. I would love to have that dividend myself. But if Uncle Sam doen't back off....

    My girlfriend and I EACH smoked for about 35 years apiece. I'll give you one guess why we finally quit in Jan. Same reason many of the others will. So...let's get this straight... the biggest demographic that smokes is poor people? And poor people, they can somehow pay $7, $8, $9 a pack? Hey, you all! Be one of the few people that get it!

    This is no longer an investment...it has become a gamble and not even a good one as long as this continues.

    Need another company that pays dividends on the same dates to replace MO? GlaxoSmithKline...and guess what...GSK is the maker of COMMIT lozenges...pays a pretty good dividend and is an INCOME INVESTOR recommendation. I don't own GSK but I sure have thought about it...my girlfriend still isn't sure she can do without tose COMMIT lozenges, oh well they're cheaper than cigarettes and she's slowed down on them some since Jan....

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2009, at 8:56 PM, ActionAlertsPlus wrote:

    I have tracked AAP for the past year. So Cramer is just one more CAPs player. His record is right here.

  • Report this Comment On June 09, 2009, at 9:06 PM, NOTvuffett wrote:

    hey truth, I know you are investing for dividends. I haven't really researched it but have you looked at VOD (Vodafone)?

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2009, at 9:28 AM, VirginiaView wrote:

    Although the tax increase was onnerous, and put a huge tax increase on the part of the population which can least afford it - and ironically, are the same people who probabaly put Obama in office, Altria has been able to pass on the tax - and then some, and people are going to continue to pay it. Think about, in NYC cigarettes were $9.25 a pack BEFORE the tax increase, now they are $10.00 a pack - seriously, this is not a significant enough increase to get people to stop. Now, in Virginia, where I am, yes the increase as a percentage was greatrer going from $2.75 ish to $3.40 ish, but again, for people addicted to this product, they will pay it... Now, all of this being said, I unfortunatly say forget about Altria and go with PM, as you avoid the US government and outrageously litigious society in the US - as a kicker, you get actually cigarette growth, no litigation, and less taxation - its a real shame when the rest of the world has LESS intrusion into its citizens lives, than does the US....

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2009, at 4:44 PM, truthisntstupid wrote:

    NOTVuffet

    I just glanced at it. VOD pays an 8.5% semi-annual dividend every Aug and Feb, was recently downgraded from hold to sell by S&P, and doesn't currently offer a DSPP, which is the only way I invest. Direct stock purchase plans offer low or no fees and I live a good drive from the nearest broker. According to DIVIDENDINVESTOR.COM they had a net loss of something like $30B although their cash flow was about $20B. Payout ratio was quoted @ 166%. Debt/equity 49%. These are just figures from DIVIDENDINVESTOR.COM. I won't spend any more time on it since the dividend is semi-annual, there's no DSPP, and it's dividend is kind of irregular.

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2009, at 5:55 PM, truthisntstupid wrote:

    A few figures from the free content of SCOTTRADE:

    MO

    Sales growth, last 5 years .....- (that's MINUS) 25%

    Debt/equity.............................4.92 (say what? Isnt that a little higher than some of you might remember since you last checked?

    EPS growth, last 5 years..........a little over 2 (two) %

    You are very smart to choose PM instead.

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Related Tickers

11/30/2009 4:00 PM
WFC $28.04 Up +0.90 +3.32%
Wells Fargo & Comp… CAPS Rating: ***
STP $14.95 Up +0.77 +5.43%
Suntech Power Hold… CAPS Rating: ****
CME $328.23 Up +5.58 +1.73%
CME Group, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
XOM $75.07 Up +0.20 +0.27%
ExxonMobil Corp CAPS Rating: ****
NVDA $13.06 Up +0.27 +2.11%
NVIDIA Corp CAPS Rating: ****
HIG $24.46 Up +0.74 +3.12%
Hartford Financial… CAPS Rating: **
MO $18.81 Down -0.19 -1.00%
Altria Group, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****

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