Is VASCO Data Security a Sell?

Should you sell VASCO Data Security (Nasdaq: VDSI  ) today?

The decision to sell a stock you've researched and followed for months or years is never easy. If you fall in love with your stock holdings, you risk becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias -- listening only to information that supports your theories, and rejecting any contradictions.

In 2004, longtime Fool Bill Mann called confirmation bias one of the most dangerous components of investing. This warning has helped my own personal investing throughout the Great Recession. Now, I want to help you identify potential sell signs on popular stocks within our 4-million-strong Fool.com community.

Today, I'm laser-focused on VASCO, ready to evaluate its price, valuation, margins, and liquidity. Let's get started!

Don't sell on price
Over the past 12 months, VASCO has risen 27.2% versus an S&P 500 return of 11.3%. Investors in VASCO have every reason to be proud of their returns, but is it time to take some off the top? Not necessarily. Short-term outperformance alone is not a sell sign. The market may be just beginning to realize the true, intrinsic value of VASCO. For historical context, let's compare VASCO's recent price with its 52-week and five-year highs. I've also included a few other businesses in the same or related industries:

Company	Recent Price	52-Week High	5-Year High
VASCO	$7.80	$8.98	$44.30
Symantec (Nasdaq: SYMC  )	$16.38	$19.16	$34.10
McAfee (NYSE: MFE  )	$47.28	$47.44	$47.40
Check Point Software Technologies (Nasdaq: CHKP  )	$43.36	$43.40	$43.40

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

As you can see, VASCO is down from its 52-week high and way down from its five-year peak. If you bought near the peak, now's the time to think back to why you bought it in the first place. If your reasons still hold true, you shouldn't sell based on this information alone.

Potential sell signs
First up, we'll get a rough idea of VASCO's valuation. I'm comparing VASCO's recent P/E ratio of 33.9 with where it's been over the past five years.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

VASCO's P/E is lower than its five-year average, which could indicate the stock is undervalued. A low P/E isn't always a good sign, since the market may be lowering its valuation of the company because of less attractive growth prospects. It does indicate that, on a purely historical basis, VASCO looks cheap.

Now, let's look at the gross margins trend, which represents the amount of profit a company makes for each $1 in sales, after deducting all costs directly related to that sale. A deteriorating gross margin over time can indicate that competition has forced the company to lower prices, that it can't control costs, or that its whole industry's facing tough times. Here is VASCO's gross margin over the past five years:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

VASCO is having no trouble maintaining its gross margin, which tends to dictate a company's overall profitability. This is solid news; however, VASCO investors need to keep an eye on this over the coming quarters. If margins begin to drop, you'll want to know why.

Next, let's explore what other investors think about VASCO. We love the contrarian view here at Fool.com, but we don't mind cheating off of our neighbors every once in a while. For this, we'll examine two metrics: Motley Fool CAPS ratings and short interest. The former tells us how Fool.com's 170,000-strong community of individual analysts rates the stock. The latter shows what proportion of investors are betting that the stock will fall. I'm including other peer companies once again for context.

Company	CAPS Rating	Short Interest (% of Float)
VASCO	*****	5.5%
Symantec	**	2.8%
McAfee	**	1.6%
Check Point Software Technologies	***	3.4%

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

The Fool community is rather bullish on VASCO. We typically like to see our stocks rated at four or five stars. Anything below that is a less-than-bullish indicator. I highly recommend you visit VASCO's stock pitch page to see the verbatim reasons behind the ratings.

Here, short interest is at a high 5.5%. This typically indicates that large institutional investors are betting against the stock.

Now, let's study VASCO's debt situation, with a little help from the debt-to-equity ratio. This metric tells us how much debt the company has taken on, relative to its overall capital structure.

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

VASCO reduced its already-minimal debt to zero over the past five years. This is great news in addition to the company's growing total equity.

The last metric I like to look at is the current ratio, which lets investors judge a company's short-term liquidity. If VASCO had to convert its current assets to cash in one year, how many times over could the company cover its current liabilities? As of the latest filing, VASCO has a current ratio of 4.96. This is a healthy sign. I like to see companies with current ratios equal to or greater than 1.5.

Finally, it's highly beneficial to determine whether VASCO belongs in your portfolio -- and to know how many similar businesses already occupy your stable of investments. If you haven't already, be sure to put your tickers into Fool.com's free portfolio tracker, My Watchlist. You can get started right away by clicking here to add VASCO.

The recap

 

VASCO has failed only one of the quick tests that would make it a sell. This is great, but does it mean you should hold your VASCO shares? Not necessarily. Just keep your eye on these trends over the coming quarters.

Remember to add VASCO to My Watchlist to help you keep track of all our coverage of the company on Fool.com.

If you haven't had a chance yet, but sure to read this article detailing how I missed out on more than $100,000 in gains through wrong-headed selling.