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This Week's 5 Dumbest Stock Moves

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Stupidity is contagious. It gets us all from time to time. Even respectable companies can catch it. As I do every week, let's take a look at five dumb financial events this week that may make your head spin.

1. Netflix buries the lede
A funny thing happened with the way Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX  ) describes itself this week in its press releases. Instead of referring to Netflix as a place with "more than 25 million members" around the world, Netflix is now serving "more than 20 million streaming members" around the world.

Yes, Netflix is now keying in solely on its streaming subscribers, but why 20 million? Are things worse than last month's guidance suggests? Netflix had 22.93 million streaming subscribers at the end of the third quarter, and its guidance calls for it to close the current quarter with 21.6 million to 23.5 million streaming couch potatoes.

One can argue that Netflix favors round numbers like 20 million and 25 million, but earlier this year it had no problem referring to itself as a service with "more than 23 million" members worldwide.

2. It's all about the Ohhhhhh
Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK  ) is backing away from its O.co rebranding.

After months of confusing shoppers with its shorter domain through ads, apps, and even the O.co Coliseum in Oakland where the Raiders, A's, and Golden State Warriors play, Overstock is going back to its original moniker.

It will still keep O.co for its mobile and international initiatives -- and even the stadium name -- but it's retreating quickly to Overstock.com for the holidays.

A company executive confesses to Advertising Age that too many people confused O.co with O.com (which is currently not available for registration). I'm sure the folks at Advertising Age had a good laugh about the botched strategy that will continue to send mixed messages.

3. The price is right at GameStop
GameStop (NYSE: GME  ) shares took a hit after another disappointing quarterly report yesterday. However, this is the second quarter in a row that finds the company sticking to its fiscal 2011 profit guidance, while hosing down its revenue and same-store sales growth projections.

This isn't a matter of margin resiliency. GameStop's guidance is getting worse. The video game retailer has been buying back its stock like there's no tomorrow. The move whittles away at the shares outstanding denominator in the EPS equation, masking the weakness in the numerator (i.e., earnings).

There is nothing wrong with share repurchase plans, especially if a company is able to buy back stock at the bottom. However, physical distribution -- and the resale of physical goods -- isn't a good long-term bet in the realm of video gaming.

4. Linked out
Corporate-minded social networking website LinkedIn (Nasdaq: LNKD  ) completed its secondary offering this week, but it was flooded by a larger number of insiders selling than the market originally expected.

Secondary offerings aren't fatal. It's a popular course these days for companies that go public with a limited number of shares offered, only to hit the market with a secondary offering at higher prices several months later.

Insiders selling shares aren't dilutive, but they do beef up the float. In short, the thin supply that was orchestrated before is now no longer a factor keeping the shares afloat. Given LinkedIn's lofty valuation -- the shares are trading for 258 times next year's earnings -- don't be surprised if the stock is trading lower a few months from now.

5. Joe DiMaggio hangs up his fund-managing cleats
Shares of mutual fund giant Legg Mason (NYSE: LM  ) slipped 3% yesterday, worse than the soft market as a whole, after the announcement that legendary fund manager Bill Miller would step down as co-manager of the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust. He'll continue to serve as chairman and co-manage a smaller fund.

There's no one that can take away Miller's amazing streak. His flagship fund beat the market 15 years in a row from 1991 through 2005. This is unlikely to happen again in our lifetime. It's a hitting streak of DiMaggio proportions. However, the fund's performance since then has been abysmal. The fund has lost badly to the S&P 500 in four of the five past years, including a gut-wrenching 55% defacing in 2008. The same fund that once watched over more than $20 billion in assets four years ago is now a $2.8 billion vehicle today.

Peter Lynch has been able to carve out a guru career because he went out on top at Fidelity Magellan. Miller won't have that kind of marketable luxury, making it odd that Legg Mason shares would get pounded on the news.

If you want to track these companies to make sure that they don't make another dumb mistake soon, consider adding them to My Watchlist.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

The Motley Fool owns shares of GameStop. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Netflix. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended writing covered calls in GameStop. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz calls them as he sees them. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story, except for Netflix. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 18, 2011, at 10:39 AM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    "However, physical distribution -- and the resale of physical goods -- isn't a good long-term bet in the realm of video gaming."

    Yes especially with Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 failing to sell as many copies as its previous version.

    I think First 5 days of Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 sold about 1.2 million Units only.

    /end of sarcasm

    Gamestop is expanding internationally their Trade-In programs and their Power up rewards program.

    Together that means Gamestop is expanding into the Smartphone and Tablet markets.

    That is just 1 example where Gamestop is working to offset the possible prospect that Physical Software Sales keep slipping.

    You don't go long GAMESTOP anymore for the Physical.... You go LONG GAMESTOP for the breathtaking DIGITAL sales expansion.

    Just look at the "Other" category in their balance sheets this year.

    It won't be long before we see Digital take up 10%+ of overall revenues. Maybe before 2012 year is out.

  • Report this Comment On November 18, 2011, at 10:41 AM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    P.S. 1 Day after Earnings Report Shares of GAMESTOP are HIGHER!

    Take a look at the share price move in GAMESTOP today RICK!

  • Report this Comment On November 18, 2011, at 10:58 AM, asortofdream wrote:

    It's difficult to say but I think that Gamestop's profitability is largely based on its physical model in which few hot selling items are discounted. Alternately, the digital medium is so heavily n a growth phase that phenomenal promotions are consistently being offered by the competition.

    While games sale revenues are increasing so is competition among distributors that is driving down game prices (or at least requiring new marketing strategies like the full-priced "partial-game" or frivolous downloadable content.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:00 PM
NFLX $70.22 Down -0.05 -0.07%
Netflix CAPS Rating: **
OSTK $6.70 Down -0.03 -0.45%
Overstock.com CAPS Rating: *
GME $19.52 Up +0.35 +1.83%
GameStop CAPS Rating: **
LM $25.52 Up +0.35 +1.39%
Legg Mason, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****

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