China's Risk to Your Portfolio in 2011

China's scored plenty of obvious economic successes in the past few years. The Chinese have a bulky currency reserve; they produce and export a surplus of goods; and they have been averaging double-digit GDP growth for several years. These accomplishments have people believing that the good times will keep on rolling -- but I'm not so convinced.

I can't seem to shake one nagging worry about China. Its economy today relies heavily on new fixed investment. Things like new buildings, factories, and equipment account for more than 60% of each year's GDP, or about $3.3 trillion. This has been going on for some time, and China has already used its past investments to build an impressive capacity in a variety of goods. But what will it do for an encore?

The government and its citizens are finding it harder and harder to come up with large sums of adequate new investments. Several commentators have pointed out a few of the more embarrassing results of this increasingly fruitless search. Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates estimates that China's idle steel capacity by itself is greater than the combined production of Japan and South Korea. Time magazine's tour of a multibillion-dollar project to house 1.5 million people found the city empty. And famed short-seller Jim Chanos estimates that China's completing 30 billion square feet of office space right now. Never mind all the existing office space already sitting vacant; that construction alone could put every Chinese man, woman, and child into a five-by-five-foot cubicle. Add to all that China's frenzy to build and buy up homes with no one living in them, and the economic lunacy begins to sound suspiciously familiar.

These aren't trivial sums we're talking about, either. That 30 billion square feet of office space would cost at least $1 trillion in U.S. dollars to build, and crazy schemes like that are actually being listed as contributions to GDP. And that's what's so scary. Fixed investment is typically the most volatile component of GDP, and in China today, there are a lot of reasons to wonder how the country can justify those figures continuing into the future. This slice of the Chinese economy, which accounts for more than half of its GDP, may suddenly see a sharp pullback.

China shakes the world
I believe 2011 will be an inflection point for China. Facing inflation of more than 5% in late 2010, the Chinese central government has had to raise interest rates twice in the last two months. But interest rate hikes have a funny way of exposing bad investments. Those who remember recent U.S. history will remember that a system of gradual interest rate hikes ultimately undid our own housing bubble, sending major ripple effects throughout the world.

The consequences of a Chinese recession would be no less dramatic. Despite its smaller economy, China is a key participant in a number of major markets. The most telling examples are in commodities. Mining companies such as Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO  ) and BHP Billton (NYSE: BHP  ) have become incredibly reliant on China, because the country now consumes 58% of the world's iron ore, 33% of its aluminum, and 30% of its annual copper consumption. These materials are used heavily in new construction, and if China slows down, these mining companies will suffer both lower prices and shrinking volumes.

The Asian-Pacific region is also exposed. China accounts for more than 30% of the region's GDP, and the country imports more than $400 billion in goods from its Asian-Pacific partners. In instances like South Korea and Taiwan, exports to China make up 12.4% and 24% of their respective GDPs. A Chinese recession would be debilitating for the region. That would be bad news for investment products tied to those regions, such as the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF and iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (NYSE: EWT  ) . Companies like POSCO (NYSE: PKX  ) and Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM  ) will also suffer, because of the large amount of business they do in Asia.

Even U.S. and European companies may be at risk. Many businesses have expanded into China in an effort to grow sales. Especially vulnerable are exporters of electrical machinery and power-generation equipment, which account for $360 billion worth of Chinese imports. Industrial stocks like GE (NYSE: GE  ) and Siemens (NYSE: SI  ) see nearly 15% of their sales go toward Asia, and they will feel an impact if the world's industrial powerhouse undergoes a correction.

The bottom line
A Chinese recession is a credible threat that's not getting its fair share of attention. If it happens, it will reverse several of the high-flying investment themes of the last few years. Commodities, emerging markets, and Chinese stocks would all lose a major support for their current valuations.

Because people have become so accustomed to reports of China's potential, they have left their portfolios exposed to some very real -- and very big -- risks.

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Fool contributor Nick Nejad owns no companies mentioned in this article. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On January 07, 2011, at 5:25 PM, dojodan444 wrote:

    More anti-China rhetoric I see. China and especially Taiwan will continue to see unprecedented growth that America will not be able to contain, though I'm sure we will try. Many are mistakenly comparing a 2000-era China to that of an 80's Japan. The difference is though that China's trading partners are much more diverse than Japan's ever were and Japan always had the American military threat within her borders to contend with, something China doesn't need to worry about. Don't be surprised to see America try to escalate political issues between China and Taiwan in an effort for us to go over there pretending to "defend Taiwan's democracy." But that aside, China and Taiwan are set for continued growth.

    Of course Motley knows that the mere mention of a downturn in China's economics will cause Americans to panic, and we all know that panic drives the market. Honestly, can you be anymore transparent Motley?

    By the way, I'm still waiting for the Sirius XM radio crash you've been talking about for a couple of years now.

  • Report this Comment On January 08, 2011, at 3:44 PM, ROEfiend wrote:

    That 60% of GDP on fixed investment is interesting. It would be great to know your source for further research.

    Before the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997, south east Asia was booming similarly to China is today. A lot of real estate development, speculation and a gobsmacking price boom.

    When the house of cards fell, there was a massive pullback of foreign money and plenty of local money fled for the exits too.

    While during the boom in SE Asia we all thought it was because of internal growth, when the capital flows suddenly reversed I think we all realized how much of the growth was really just foreign investment moving its way around the economy.

    From 1996 to 1999 I was a journalist at Asian Business Review and had a front row seat to the debacle in SE Asia but I'm totally out of the loop as far as China goes.

  • Report this Comment On January 08, 2011, at 4:38 PM, RRobertsmith wrote:

    I don't see any disclosure statement where the author is putting some money where his mouth is...ie shorting some china stocks! What is this just a long Stand Aside lecture?

  • Report this Comment On January 09, 2011, at 12:02 AM, jomueller1 wrote:

    Is this just spreading fear, the favorite motivator of Wall Street? There is no solid information. Sure Siemens depends on Asia for 15% of exports. SO what? Even in a recession China would not drop dead.

    US companies have a short sighted behaviour and constantly cause booms and busts. The Chinese and some Europeans have a more long term view. That's why Europe never has the growth rates that the US has - but it also does not have the sliding that the US has. That is conveniently "forgotten" by the gurus of capitalism.

    If it was for me I would close all the schools of economy because the best they produce is a rehashing of the past. And for that we pay money?

  • Report this Comment On January 10, 2011, at 7:12 AM, ROEfiend wrote:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/39288120/China-the-Mother-of-All-G...

    This 55 page slideshow is pretty interesting and probably the inspiration for above article. Includes:

    - photos of empty city from Time magazine

    - says because of 1 Child Policy, China's worker participation rate peaked in 2010, will now face similar aging population as Japan

    - says GDP growth rates overstated by Chinese Govt

    - says massive overcapacity build-up in steel production for government infrastructure

    Slides 45 to 55 are about Japan and how much trouble it is heading towards.

  • Report this Comment On January 11, 2011, at 3:54 AM, nnejad wrote:
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