What would happen to Google's
These are the kinds of questions I'm thinking about as I comb through recent articles discussing the "inevitable" economic downturn in China. There are some good arguments out there. For instance, James S. Chanos -- the superinvestor who made millions by sniffing out bubbles and then shorting homebuilders, troubled banks and companies like Enron -- says he's now betting against China. China's central bank just slightly raised a key interest rate, perhaps in an effort to slow overheated growth. Heck, this week's edition of The Economist even reads "Bubble Warning." And during my trip to Shanghai, I was amazed by mile after mile of new high-rise construction on the outskirts of the city. I was so struck by the seeming excess of new buildings that my wife had to make me promise to stop using the word "overcapacity."
This isn't to say I think a bubble is a foregone conclusion; there are many brilliant economists forecasting a sustained boom in the Far East. And as I wrote here, I think emerging middle-class consumers will be an economic force to be reckoned with over the next decade. But for the sake of argument, let's consider the impact of a punctured Chinese economy.
Firms involved in the Chinese construction boom would likely be hit hard. As noted in this article, companies like Aluminum Corp. of China
However, other companies could find great opportunities, just as Ford Motor
What is your opinion on the chances of a Chinese bubble? Which companies will be most affected, and which will find ways to strengthen their presence abroad? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below.
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