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Market Data Table

Breakfast News: SpaceX Snub Rains on AMD's Parade

August 5, 2026

Tuesday's Markets
S&P 500 7,737 (+1.79%)
Nasdaq 26,585 (+2.59%)
Dow 54,086 (+1.71%)
Bitcoin $63,998 (+0.16%)

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1) Rocket Lab or SpaceX?

Meilin Quinn, Team Hidden Gems

Our Hidden Gems style of investing led us to first recommend Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) in May 2025 at $25.15. Then, in barely a year, investors bid it up past $150. The stock has since roughly halved from its high. We've now made over 20 recommendations of RKLB across our services. Our first position remains up 196%. And our conviction is only strengthening. Rocket Lab features:

A launch business that keeps winning. Electron is the world's most-launched small orbital rocket, reliably earning repeat government work. Its contracted backlog hit $2.2 billion last quarter, more than double a year earlier.
A bigger rocket, a bigger league. Neutron, its larger rocket, is the next big advancement. If the launch succeeds, Rocket Lab can compete for the heavier, higher-value missions that go to SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Blue Origin today.
Its own satellite network. Rocket Lab's recent acquisition of Iridium was costly, but it brings a working satellite network and over $850 million in revenue. That gives Rocket Lab its own version of what SpaceX has with Starlink.

Our HG five-year price target for Rocket Lab is $163.21. Shares are around $74 today.

Our HG five-year price target for SpaceX is $217.52. Shares are around $116 today.

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Chart showing AMD's revenue over the past 10 years rising from about $1.5 billion in early 2016 to to $11.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026.

2) Is AMD's AI Era Just Getting Started?

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) reported a 50% revenue rise year over year (YOY) with its second-quarter results, hitting $11.5 billion. It was boosted by data center revenue reaching $6.7 billion, as non-GAAP EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) tripled.

CEO Lisa Su's year-long pivot toward AI inference and agentic workloads: These numbers show how AMD's move away from just selling chips and into the artificial intelligence (AI) and data center business looks like it's paying off. Data center revenue doubled year over year. Foolish (capital F!) investors need to keep tabs on how competition could shape future profits.
Anthropic's 2 gigawatts of MI450 GPUs: A plan to deploy AMD silicon and Helios systems by Anthropic provides a potential long-term boost. It follows AMD's planned equity investment of up to $5 billion in the company behind Claude AI. Management forecasts approximately $13 billion in revenue in Q3. But at the same time, SpaceX's announced intention to use Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) chips exclusively presents long-term investors with conflicting sentiment. AMD fell by over 8% this morning in response.

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3) Is SpaceX's $18 Billion Spending Spree Worth the Risk?

SpaceX fell more than 7% in pre-market trading, despite a 92% YOY jump in Q2 revenue to $7.81 billion. The company saw Starlink revenue rise 66% as subscribers doubled, AI revenue surge 247%, and space revenue rise 29%. But the company posted a $541 million net loss -- though that was better than the $1 billion loss a year earlier.

"It was the largest and most hyped IPO in American history, dropped in the middle of high market valuations…": TMF co-founder and CEO Tom Gardner explained how the initial public offering (IPO) hype and the reaction to these results helped justify our pre-IPO call on SpaceX, advising Fools with a long-term investing horizon not to buy shares on day one.
Capital intensity ahead: $18 billion in infrastructure and research spending left investors nervous. CFO Bret Johnsen said capital expenditures should remain at similar levels for the next two quarters. Looking ahead, Elon Musk brought his $1 trillion annual revenue target forward to 2030. And Tom added, "I do think at some point SpaceX becomes a long-term buy."

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4) AI's Odd Couple: Arista and Upstart Both Soar 10%+

Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) and Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) are players at different levels in the AI world, and both popped more than 12% this morning on the back of expectations-busting Q2 results. Both have been recommended by Team Hidden Gems and Team Rule Breakers.

1.6 terabits per second artificial intelligence fabric platform rolling out: Arista reported a quarterly revenue figure of $3 billion for the first time, building on its overtaking of Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) as the largest Ethernet switch vendor in the data center market. Tom Gardner described Arista as "a dream business with phenomenal leadership," as quality management is key to long-term investing success.
Finding loans through automated cloud channels that bypass traditional banks: Upstart, meanwhile, provides an AI-based customer service that hits the key need for financial services. And a Q2 revenue surge of 41.7% over the same quarter last year, as net income almost tripled, shows how well it’s doing it. Investors need to watch automation and conversion rate directions as indicators of AI underwriting competitive advantage.

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5) Next Up: Merchants, Motors, and Mickey on Deck

Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) popped over 20% after making good on hopes for strong first-half growth. In the words of President Harley Finkelstein, "This was a monster quarter." Revenue in the second quarter soared 34%, with free-cash-flow margins reaching 18%. Management now expects the full year to deliver revenue growth "at a low-thirties percentage rate."
Uber (NYSE:UBER) saw Q2 revenue rise 12%, as CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said, "We've added more first-time users over the past twelve months than in any period over the past five years." The stock dipped 3% in response, as investors weigh up ongoing robotaxi competition. The results come after Uber announced a $14.8 billion all-cash deal in July to acquire Germany's Delivery Hero.
Disney (NYSE:DIS) reported a 7% rise in Q3 revenue, as the company told us, "Toy Story merchandise helped deliver our strongest quarter of year-over-year growth in Consumer Products revenue in 20 quarters." Toy Story 5 has exceeded $1 billion in global box office, taking the franchise to $4 billion. Parks & Experiences revenue increased 10%, following pressure in the previous quarter. The stock gained over 4% in early trading.

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6) Today's Take: Will This Trend Come to an End?

For me, the difference between a tech trend and a cycle mostly comes down to time frame: a trend lasts longer and is more durable -- even if not permanent -- while a cycle tends to ebb and flow quickly. For instance: memory. High prices encourage capacity buildout until supply outpaces demand and prices fall, starting the loop again. That's a cycle. A trend is driven by something more directional, like population changes or falling costs, without a clear counterforce. It's easy to see the difference in hindsight, harder in the moment. I extrapolated pandemic e-commerce adoption as a trend when a lot of it was cyclical. My litmus test: how fast could a competitor meet that demand? If quickly, you're probably in a cycle even if demand keeps rising. -- Emily Flippen, Team Rule Breakers

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7) Your Take

If SpaceX is on your watch list, what would you need to see before you'd consider buying?

Debate with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying!

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