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Investment Play in Blu-Ray?

By Seth Jayson (TMF Bent)
January 7, 2005

One of the big stories from this year's Consumer Electronics Show will be the much-hyped next-generation DVD battle between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. In case you've been camping under a rock, Blu-Ray is a multicorporation standard led by Sony (NYSE: SNE), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), and others. The problem is, media heavyweights such as Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) have lined up, at least provisionally, on the side of NEC-led HD-DVD even though it will hold a ton less multimedia fun than Blu-Ray: 30 gigs instead of 50.

The chorus from the bum side of the tech curve is that Blu-Ray discs will cost too much to manufacture. Please! Once millions are being churned out, the difference will be less than the sales tax you pay on your purchase. So, while tech nerds and media junkies like colleague Rick Munarriz and me have been keeping up with the future competition as the teams choose up, let's face it; the real question for investors is, "Dude, how can I make a buck off this?"

Unfortunately, there aren't any screaming-obvious Rule Breakers that look poised to fly on this impressive technological leap. Most of the players in this league are already titans. But keeping an eye on some smaller gaming favorites might give you an idea of who stands to profit from the upcoming expanded capacity.

Today, some key Blu-Ray oaths of loyalty gave hints of where you might cast your glance. Joining tech fogies Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: SUNW) and Texas Instruments today in raising their right hands were Vivendi's game wing -- publisher of Fool fave World of "Warcrack" -- and Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS).

Imagine an Electronic Arts that's more of a movie studio, complete with advertising revenue. Some of us have. Games bundled with movies bundled with other extras to play on integrated media consoles with Internet connectivity and hot search and purchase links? Yeah, the technology just drips with cash-generating opportunities, and there's just more room for them on Blu-Ray.

For those who prefer companies that sell shovels to the miners, try looking at an established German firm, Singulus Technologies, a leader in the big machines that actually make media discs. By selling equipment for either standard, this firm -- which only trades on the pinkies, alas -- may stand to benefit no matter which way the wind blows.

So keep your eyes open and your mind nimble, Fools. New times demand new imagination. The future is always much cooler than we guess, and so are the opportunities for investment profits.

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Seth Jayson is always scheming, but he's yet to find a better way to make money than stocks. At the time of publication, he had positions in no company mentioned. View his stock holdings and Fool profile here. Fool rules are here.