Dogged by quality concerns with its airplanes, a management shakeup, and -- most recently -- a report that Southwest Airlines (LUV -0.70%) will accept delivery of only 20 Boeing jets this year, down from the 85 it once expected, Boeing (BA 3.75%) stock fell for a tenth straight day Friday. Pouring salt into the wound, JPMorgan on Friday cut its Boeing price target to $210 a share.
But here's the good news: Boeing stock costs $170 a share today. A move to $210 would be a 23.5% improvement!
Is Boeing stock a buy?
And so, despite Boeing's many problems, JPMorgan still insists Boeing stock is a blue-chip buy. Commenting on TheFly.com Friday, JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman argues that now that Boeing has released its Q1 2024 numbers -- 83 total airplanes delivered -- investors are probably reconciled to the fact that Boeing's not building planes as fast as it used to. It's not going to earn as much as some investors may have hoped, or as fast, either.
This is obviously not great news for Boeing stock. Boeing's decision to slow production, and take more time to ensure its planes are properly built, means it's going to take longer for Boeing to work through its backlog of 5,668 ordered-but-undelivered airplanes. If Boeing, as a result, earns only the $2.82 per share that analysts currently forecast for 2024, then Boeing shares sell for an astounding 60 times current-year earnings.
On the plus side, though, this means Boeing arguably has more years of faster growth ahead of it. Those 5,668 planes will have to be built eventually. Once Boeing gets its house in order, earnings should rise rapidly -- perhaps as high as nearly $16 per share by 2028. So this, in a nutshell, is the buy thesis for Boeing: Not that it's a bargain at 60 times earnings today (because it isn't). But that Boeing might become a bargain four years from now, with today's share price only 10x 2028 earnings.
Here's hoping.
