Get Ready for the Bounce

"Don't catch a falling knife." Thus commandeth the old saw (to mix a cutlery metaphor).

But if people weren't tempted to catch cutlery in the first place, there'd be no need for this little bit of investing wisdom, would there? The idea of buying a former highflier at a discount price certainly has its attractions. The trick, of course, is to increase the odds that when you make your grab, you're catching haft, not blade. That's where we come in.

In The Motley Fool's continuing effort to keep your investing dollars safe, today we once again assume our position beneath Mr. Market's silverware drawer. As the knives plummet, we'll measure who's fallen farthest. Then we'll head over to Motley Fool CAPS, and ask which of these stocks Foolish investors think are ready to rebound to new highs -- if any.

With that said, let's meet today's list of contenders, drawn from the latest "52 Week Low" list at Nasdaq.com:

52-Week High

Currently Fetching

CAPS Rating

Cedar Fair  (NYSE:FUN)

$30.65

$23.84

***

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG)

$75.87

$46.50

**

Louisiana-Pacific  (NYSE:LPX)

$23.51

$16.78

**

Cosi (NASDAQ:COSI)

$6.77

$3.24

**

PGT Inc. (NASDAQ:PGTI)

$15.55

$9.68

*

New York Times  (NYSE:NYT)

$26.90

$19.80

*

Verasun (NYSE:VSE)

$26.90

$11.92

*

Companies are selected from the "NASDAQ 52 Week Low" list published on Nasdaq.com on the Saturday following close of trading last week. 52-week high and current pricing provided by Yahoo! Finance. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.

Knives and knaves
Pickings are slim in today's edition of MSN's "shot list." We've got several-high profile names on offer -- Harley, the Times, and Verasun to name a few, but not a single CAPS fave in the bunch. The stock that comes closest to popularity, with a mediocre three-star rating, isn't technically a stock at all. Rather, Cedar Fair is a master limited partnership, whose shareholders own "units" rather than "shares."

That distinction doesn't keep it from being the top "stock" on the list, however. Nor does it keep this amusement park operator off the recommended stocks list at Motley Fool Income Investor.

Income Investor members can find out advisor James Early's most recent thoughts on the company by clicking here. (Nonsubscribers, feel free to click as well. Sign up for a free trial, and you can read the analysis just like the rest of us.) In the meantime, let's find out why ordinary CAPS investors like the company.

The bull case for Cedar Fair
What's in a name? The Bard might answer "not a lot," but Cedar Fair's decision to make fun not just its mission in life, but its ticker "name," has won the hearts of many a Fool. Typical of many of the comments you'll find on CAPS is this one from FoolsGold001: "Reasonable share price, already good but rising dividend, good financials, and only a few competitors. Besides, with a ticker like FUN, why not invest?"

One of the genius results of the folks at Fool management in deciding to make CAPS a free service is we attract comments from a lot of investors with first-hand experience on the companies they rate. Case in point, CAPS All-Star ProtegeAA, who confides:

I worked at Valleyfair as a teenager. Regional parks, especially in the less touristy states (Minnesota and Ohio vs Cali or Florida) are virtual monopolies that draw people from nearby states. The dividend provides a strong base and the recent acquisitions will be wonderful in a few years.

Monopolism seems a common theme. Yet another All-Star, this time sandvig, writes that:

Times change, but folks still take their kids to the amusement parks in the summer. ... While at the park, they have a captive audience to buy their food, drinks, and trinkets. It is a steady business that almost has monopoly status. There isn't a big risk that someone will build a competing theme park next to one of their existing parks. The company is well run. They pay a nice dividend and increase it regularly. ... This pick will not clobber the market, but I think it will outperform the market with the help of the generous dividend.

That dividend, by the way, currently yields a cotton-candy-fluffy 7.6% -- nearly four times the average yield of "stocks" on the S&P 500. What's more, the lower the stock price goes, the bigger Cedar Fair's yield. Eventually, you just know the yield will attract attention, and buyers. This, my friends, is a formula for built-in bounciness.

Time to chime in
Of course, the aim of this column isn't just to tell you what I think about Cedar Fair -- or even what other CAPS players are saying. We want to hear your thoughts on the company. If you've got an opinion, we've got a place to voice it.

Motley Fool CAPS: It's fun, it's free, and it just might make you famous.


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