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A Mining Slide That Spells "Opportunity"

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All of a sudden the world's metals markets are making it appear that many of us should slink off into the corner and sit quietly, topped by high-pointed dunce caps. The latest evidence of the appropriateness of that approach has come from London-based mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP  ) .

After months of assuming that China's voracious appetite for minerals would likely be endless -- even amid sputtering economies of the OECD (developed nations) -- Rio Tinto has raised a cautionary flag, indicating that Chinese commodities demands are slowing. According to Rio's CEO Tom Albanese, who is in the midst of attempting to fend off a buyout incursion from Melbourne-based BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP  ) , the Chinese slowdown involves the nation's economy "pausing for a breath," but that its longer run vibrancy likely will be reignited by industrialization and urbanization.

However, the breath-taking also has played a major role in other ways. For instance, copper prices have been cut nearly in half just since July, resulting in a  precipitous 75% slide in the share price of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX  ) . Further, given the global economic softness, Rio Tinto will delay planned asset sales, which had been intended as debt-reduction measures following its nearly $40 billion purchase of Canadian aluminum producer Alcan last year.

And if all that weren't enough, a 12% joint stake in Rio Tinto taken down earlier this year by Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH  ) -- Chinalco -- and Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) appears to be frozen in Hong Kong as an offshoot to the liquidation of Lehman Brothers. The shares had been acquired in an effort to thwart BHP's intended purchase of its British rival.

So in short order, the mining sector has been transmogrified from the envy of global industry to appearing to be the work of Alice in Wonderland creator Lewis Carroll.

Nevertheless, for those Fools well steeped in patience, there likely have been some compelling longer-term values created in the group -- almost overnight.

My salient overall takeaway here is that, while Freeport-McMoRan -- and copper itself -- could slide for a while longer, a year to 18 months could yield significant profits in one of the world's largest publicly held copper, molybdenum, and gold producers. It's a prospect well worth Foolish attention.  

Despite its slide, Freeport-McMoRan continues to be accorded five stars to Motley Fool CAPS players. Does that rating include your vote?

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Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 4:53 PM, Brettze wrote:

    We will be awashed in a copper glut as a giant copper/gold/molybdenum deposit is now under development in Alaska. It is now in a process of permits and will be open in 2015 or sooner. It is a really big mine!!! I will not tell you the name of the mine! It has 60 billion pounds of copper and 20 million ounces of gold and two billion pounds of molybdenum.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 5:00 PM, Brettze wrote:

    Copper already had its heyday and will not be back for another 20 years or more... Aluminium hasnt yet... Aluminium will be the next hot metal ... China will require much more aluminium than today and China will not be able to meet demand with its own domestic smelters because all of the future smelters will be powered by coal powerplants .. We will not be so kind to coal powerplants in the future because of global climate change...I seriously doubt that China will succeed in meeting its aluminium requirments all on its own in the future. China will start net imports anyday!!! We already have surplus aluminium ready to ship to China!! it will be a matter of weeks before the surplus will be gone! aluminium prices will soar like copper did.. Of course, we will build new smelters only with hydropower, alternate energy or nuclear powerplants as source of electricity. We will not use coal to produce addtiional aluminium capacity. I simply dont think so or our world governments are not doing thier job of fighting global climate change at all.. We simply cannot add more coal powered plants... Governemnts must be able to predict trouble ahead instead of reacting to disasters too late...We will pressure China into giving up the idea of self sufficieny in aluminium... China doesnt need that!

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 9:52 PM, valari25 wrote:

    I'll tell you the name of the mine, it is called the Pebble Mine. There was a ballot iniative up here in Alaska to try and prevent it from being built.

    Granted it was by the eco-nazis, but there is still resistance to the mine being built. It is likely that Pebble ends up in court for years and years and years and years before it gets built.

    (yes, it has to be pebble. All the other big ones are up and running and the rest are small or already have been cancelled.)

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 10:07 PM, TMFSinchiruna wrote:

    Brettze... don't count copper out so easily. :)

    On another pont... here's an update fom Chalco about the reports of its RTP stake being frozen. They're stating all is well:

    http://www.chalco.com.cn/zl/web/chalco_en_view.jsp?TID=20081...

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 1:22 PM, Brettze wrote:

    valari

    congrats you won the prize! yes it is the pebble mine... it is too big to pass up simple as that... if it is smaller, then it might not be worth the ecological argument.. It is better to mine in fewer locations than many smaller locations as logic goes... This mine might spare ten other smalller mines elsewhere and spare a lot of wildlife.. I dont believe in small mines if we can avoid them..

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 1:26 PM, Brettze wrote:

    as for chalco alcoa investment stuck in a dead Lehman account,, I repeat my plea that everyone takes out a stock certifiicate .. It is a hassle for small shareholders, but not so for big investors like mutual funds and corporations owning other chunks of others... Stock certificates is a portable vehicle that you can sell with any broker or agent instead of being stuck with same broker like Lehman. When will anyone ever learn?? Stock certificates also shields short sellers from borrowing your shares for short selling.. This is true... Why isnt anyone listening to me? I dont have any stock certificates because it is a hassle for a small investor liek myself.. I am waiting for the day to come when I can have an electronic form of stock certificate that I can get and return online...

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 1:28 PM, Brettze wrote:

    Stock certificates is not for decorating walls.... Stock certificates protect your investments like title deeds protect your real estate with your very name written on it... "Street name" just dont cut it..

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 1:28 PM, Brettze wrote:

    Stock certificates is not for decorating walls.... Stock certificates protect your investments like title deeds protect your real estate with your very name written on it... "Street name" just dont cut it..

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 1:29 PM, Brettze wrote:

    We probably wouldnt have this god awful stock market crash if everyone of us get a stock certificate. This would prevent all kiinds of speculators from messin' with our investments for their own accounts..

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 1:30 PM, Brettze wrote:

    If a short seller wants to borrow my shares , he cant ...

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Related Tickers

12/31/1969 7:00 PM
RTP.DL $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Rio Tinto plc (ADR… CAPS Rating: ****
BHP $76.79 Down -1.63 -2.08%
BHP Billiton Limit… CAPS Rating: ****
FCX $42.96 Down -1.70 -3.81%
Freeport-McMoRan C… CAPS Rating: ****
AA $10.21 Down -0.12 -1.16%
Alcoa, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
ACH $13.05 Down -0.38 -2.83%
Aluminum Corp. of… CAPS Rating: ****

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