I am always looking for a good deal, whether that means buying an extra box of my favorite cereal when it's on sale or pouncing on undervalued stocks. The idea that anybody would sell a stock for less than its worth may seem silly, but legendary value investor Ben Graham tells us, by way of allegory, how we can look out for these situations.
In The Intelligent Investor, Graham introduces readers to a wacky chap named Mr. Market. His game is to pay you house calls on a daily basis, in an attempt to sell you interests in businesses he owns or to buy from you interests in businesses you own. Sometimes Mr. Market will show up at your door very excited and offer you premium prices for your holdings, and at other times he'll be inconsolably depressed about the future and will offer to sell you what he has for as low as pennies on the dollar.
So to find some of the stocks that Mr. Market is depressed about, I've turned once again to The Motley Fool's CAPS investor community. Just 30 days ago, our community of investors gave each of the companies below a five-star rating, the highest possible.
|
Stock
|
30-Day Return
|
One-Year Return
|
Current CAPS Rating
|
|
CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE )
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(19.8%)
|
(74.1%)
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*****
|
|
Harvest Energy Trust (NYSE: HTE )
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(16.6%)
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(51.0%)
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*****
|
|
Ensco International (NYSE: ESV )
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(14.9%)
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(53.7%)
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*****
|
|
National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV )
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(13.8%)
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(66.8%)
|
*****
|
|
Petro-Canada (NYSE: PCZ )
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(12.4%)
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(58.7%)
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*****
|
|
Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU )
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(9.8%)
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(64.3%)
|
****
|
|
Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN )
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(9.3%)
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(25.8%)
|
*****
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Data from Motley Fool CAPS as of Dec. 30.
As the table shows, these stocks are all still very well regarded in the CAPS community despite their underperformance over the past month. These are not formal recommendations, but they could be a great place to kick off some further research. I'll even get you started with some thoughts on Ensco International.
Why so blue?
Though the current market downturn seems to have a knack for making a day seem like a week and a week seem like a decade, it wasn't all that long ago that there seemed to be no stopping oil prices. In those heady days, oil drillers such as Ensco were in greater demand than face paint at a Kiss concert. But just as the substitute math teacher with the Gene Simmons makeup starts to feel silly once the last guitar riff has faded, investors are far less excited about drillers now that crude can't even fetch $40 per barrel.
The reason is pretty simple -- when oil prices were through the roof, there was no quenching the thirst that oil companies had for new wells, and so they were willing to pay up for the drillers' services. But now that oil prices are tanking, it's unlikely that drillers will be able to command the same kind of dayrates that they did when oil was booming.
What the bulls say
Just as there were those calling shenanigans on oil when it was peaking above $140 per barrel, there are those who think the extent of the crash has been unwarranted. For these petrobulls, the shambles left behind where there were once energy stocks present a great opportunity.
Ensco, for one, has some nice contracts already locked up -- something that CAPS member Alwaysgolong noted when giving Ensco a thumbs-up earlier this month:
Booked soild. This company has contracts in hand. Day rates are good. Good strong company.
Fellow Ensco bull and CAPS All-Star sandvig gave a thumbs-up back October. After dropping some Latin on us ("Pretium iustum est -- The Price Is Right."), this member gave us a more detailed pitch for the stock:
This company has little debt, a P/E ratio of about 5, and has a ROI around 23%. Even with the price of oil "down," I will go out on a limb and suggest we have not seen the end of drilling. I would think that the chances are pretty good that the shares prices will double within three years.
So do you think the recent drop has created a good buying opportunity? Or will Ensco continue to be dragged down by the lackluster energy market? Let the community know what you think -- head over to CAPS and share your thoughts with the other 125,000 members currently part of the community. Even if you'd prefer to pass on Ensco, you can check out a couple of the other stocks listed above, or any of the 5,400 stocks that have ratings on CAPS.
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