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GE’s Dividend Head-Fake

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At the beginning of the month, I wrote that General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) CEO Jeffrey Immelt was signaling to the market that he was favoring maintaining the firm’s dividend over its AAA credit rating. Either I misread him or he changed his mind in the interim. Immelt announced today that the company would cut its dividend by two-thirds, from $0.31 per share to $0.10 per share.

Actually, it’s no big surprise by now
In truth, the cut had already been factored in by investors; based on yesterday’s closing price, the dividend yield on GE shares was 13.6% -- a bit rich to be sustainable. Even at $0.10 per share, the annual dividend yield is 4.4%, or about one and half percentage points above the 10-year Treasury yield.

The reduction in the dividend will produce significant cash savings, approximately $9 billion on an annual basis. The move is also a gesture of goodwill toward the credit rating agencies that are reviewing GE’s rating.

Come on in, you’re on the list
Immelt is eating a little crow over the dividend, but he is simply joining a crowded banquet. The list of companies that have cut their dividends recently reads like a who’s who of corporate America (admittedly, many of them are financials), including JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) , Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW  ) , Motorola (NYSE: MOT  ) , and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) .

Who’ll be next? Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) looks like it might be due -- the shares are currently yielding around 10% -- despite having increased its dividend in the third quarter of last year.

Numbers speak louder than words
The lesson here is that CEOs are having as much difficulty wrapping their heads around the magnitude of the current crisis as anyone else. Investors can’t rely on executives’ reassurances that a company will maintain its dividend, as these may not be based on an objective assessment of economic fundamentals. However, the numbers don’t lie: Dividend-oriented investors must be extra diligent in analyzing a firm’s financial position and earnings power through the downturn. It’s the only way to avoid being faked out by an over-optimistic CEO.

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Alex Dumortier, CFA, has a beneficial interest in Wells Fargo, but not in any of the other companies mentioned in this article. Pfizer and JPMorgan Chase are former Motley Fool Income Investor picks. Pfizer is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On February 27, 2009, at 4:55 PM, osborta wrote:

    GE was supposed to be different. This is a company that barely completes a sentence without using the word "integrity". Look out below Monday! As investors digest that, when it comes to integrity and Management's control of the business, GE is no better (and possibly much worse) than AIG, Lehmann Bros, Citi, BAC, GM, F, . . . . .

  • Report this Comment On February 27, 2009, at 9:39 PM, StarWitchDoctor wrote:

    If managemnet was restponsible, the cut would have been 100%. As a GE investor I am upset about the lack of response and transparency in the face of what is indeed an upsetting economy. If you are worried about your 21 cents, so be it but some one said its dividend wise is stock value foolish.

  • Report this Comment On February 27, 2009, at 9:40 PM, StarWitchDoctor wrote:

    duh. if management was resonsible, .......the cut would have been

  • Report this Comment On February 27, 2009, at 11:24 PM, Newton50 wrote:

    How can you tell the difference between an "overly optimistic CEO" and a liar? When a CEO makes a commitment to holding the dividend, then cuts it a month later, that's called being a liar in my book. He should go to prison for fraud. As far as I'm concerned, GE is now a company run by a deliberate liar. Break my trust and guess what I do? Take my losses and leave this future penny stock in the dust.

  • Report this Comment On February 27, 2009, at 11:29 PM, Newton50 wrote:

    How can you tell the difference between an "overly optimistic CEO" and a liar? When a CEO makes a commitment to holding the dividend, then cuts it a month later, that's called being a liar in my book. He should go to prison for fraud. As far as I'm concerned, GE is now a company run by a deliberate liar. Break my trust and guess what I do? Take my losses and leave this future penny stock in the dust.

  • Report this Comment On February 28, 2009, at 10:51 PM, esxokm wrote:

    I know the company I am about to mention doesn't fit the theme of this article per se, but when you ask "who'll be next" to engage dividend reduction tactics, I think we should all look at WWE and its cash-flow situation.

    Getting back to GE, I have to say that I truly am amazed at how this mighty blue chip has fallen so far. It's a complete mess of a business. And yes, Immelt is obviously a liar. If he isn't, then he's stupid. What GE management should do now is put their imagination to work and think about where the company will be 5 years from now -- and be honest about it. Present worst-case scenarios to go along with the rosy ones. Let shareholders know what's truly going on. GE Capital is, by all accounts, possibly worth zero as some have said; some have even opined it might be worth a negative number. Does management believe that GE, in its current state, is an entity on its way to a breakup? Let us know, guys...

  • Report this Comment On March 01, 2009, at 3:12 PM, TMFAleph1 wrote:

    esxokm,

    I'm not sure if you are reacting to Newton50's comment or my article when you write:

    "Immelt is obviously a liar."

    To clarify: I did not call Immelt a liar; that is a serious accusation and one which is difficult to prove. I think one should be more circumspect before making such accusations.

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