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A Wealth-Building Strategy for the Next 10 Years

The past 10 years made up an absolutely horrendous decade for stocks -- the worst calendar decade in recorded history, in fact. However, one strategy handily beat the broad market, enabling investors to build real wealth, instead of experiencing losses even before factoring in the cost of inflation. Before I get to that, let's consider the extent of the damage suffered by broadly diversified stock investors:

Jan. 1, 1999 – Dec. 31, 2009

S&P 500

S&P 500 (including dividends)

Annualized Average Return

(2.7%)

(0.9%)

Total Return

(24.1%)

(9.1%)

Source: Standard & Poor's.

The two sets of numbers show that dividends cushioned the blow of lower prices, but that's cold comfort when one's total return over an entire decade remains negative. Still, the table below shows that a dividend-focused strategy could have made a material difference on outcomes at the end of the same 10-year period:

 

S&P 500 (including dividends)

Morningstar Dividend Composite Index

Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index

Dividend Yield

1.9%

3.4%**

5.5%**

1999–2009 Annualized Average Return

(0.9%)

3.7%

6.7%

Theoretical value of $1,000 invested at the beginning of the period*

$909

$1,439

$1,925

*Assumes zero costs.

**At Nov. 30, 2009.

Sources: Standard & Poor's, Morningstar, and author's calculations.

Although the difference in annualized returns may appear small, they start to add up with compounding. In terms of the end value of your initial stake, the Morningstar Dividend Composite is up on the S&P 500 by nearly 60%, while the Morningstar Dividend Leaders is ahead by more than 100%!

No academic debate
You might object that this discussion is largely academic, because you can't go out and buy these indexes. However, with the development of exchange-traded funds, you can almost do just that. While there are no ETFs based on the Morningstar indexes I refer to, the iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund (NYSE: DVY  ) , tracks the (what else?) Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend index. With a 6.3% annualized return over the past decade, its performance is close to that of the Morningstar Dividend Leaders index. Moreover, the expense ratio of the ETF is an acceptable 0.40%.

The above table also illustrates that as your dividends rise, so too do your returns. As we noted earlier, Morningstar's Dividend Leaders, which contains the 100 highest-yielding stocks in the Dividend Composite index, significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and its parent index. That's not as self-evident as it may seem.

Higher dividends = higher earnings growth
On the one hand, high dividend yields contribute directly to total returns; however, in theory, earnings that are paid out as dividends can't be reinvested in the business, thereby reducing future earnings growth. The real world works differently, however; Rob Arnott and Cliff Asness used market and fundamental data from 1946 through 2001 to show that the higher the current dividend payout ratio, the higher the subsequent earnings growth. They suggest that a higher payout may prevent corporate management from engaging in "empire-building" and other value-destroying stunts.

There are more than 700 companies listed on major U.S. exchanges with a market capitalization in excess of $500 million and a dividend yield greater than that of the S&P 500. A significant number of these companies are expected to grow their earnings faster than the benchmark index, too. They include:

Company

Dividend Yield

Long-Term Earnings Growth Estimate

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT  )

3%

11.4%

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  )

3%

30.4%

Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC  )

2.6%

12.3%

3M (NYSE: MMM  )

2.5%

11.3%

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  )

2%

11.2%

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

(Let me be quite clear: These stocks are not recommendations, though they may be worth looking at in more depth.)

So there you have it: You can build real wealth over extended periods by investing in stocks that pay a sustainable, high dividend. Of course, not all dividends are created equal -- the trick is being able to identify which dividends are sustainable and which aren't. During last year's turmoil, even stalwart General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) was forced to cut its dividend by two-thirds.

Do you want to be wealthier 10 years from now?
Sustainable or not? That's a question the folks at Motley Fool Income Investor spend a lot of time on; they can show you how to build -- and more importantly, how to manage -- a portfolio of sustainable dividend payers that will be working relentlessly to compound your wealth. Income Investor's approach is built around six "Buy First" stocks -- "stable, best-of-breed companies that should be paying rich dividends in 10, 20, or 30 years." You can find out which Buy First stocks the team is recommending by taking a 30-day free trial of the service today -- it's a simple first step toward being wealthier in 10 years' time.

You can follow Fool contributor Alex Dumortier on Twitter. He has no beneficial interest in any of the companies mentioned in this article. 3M and Wal-Mart Stores are Motley Fool Inside Value picks. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

 


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 16, 2010, at 2:33 PM, madmilker wrote:

    Invest in America......enough said.

  • Report this Comment On January 16, 2010, at 7:42 PM, johnhenr wrote:

    Couldn't agree more, Enough of these Chinese stocks and other foreign investments. The Communists can nationalize a business anytime they want and their goes your investment. Anyone want to say Venezuela and Hugo Chavez? How about Tianneman Square?

  • Report this Comment On January 16, 2010, at 8:27 PM, jrusso9722 wrote:

    AMEN!! How about the poison chemicals in Chinese baby formulae. etc. etc. Allowing cheap Chinese goods into this country will permanently wipe out our manufacturing base, then, we'll be just like the Blue Fin Tuna population, probably never to recover. Personally I think many people in Congress are the biggest crooks around. They know how to rob America and get away with it.

  • Report this Comment On January 17, 2010, at 5:17 AM, FMilano wrote:

    Dividend Aristocrats are companies in the S&P 500 that have increased dividend payouts to shareholders every year for the last 25 years:

    http://www.TopYields.nl/Top-dividend-yields-of-Dividend-Aris...

  • Report this Comment On January 17, 2010, at 5:48 PM, sanju007 wrote:

    wat bout tax on dividends? how wud that reduce those "good looking" returns

    and over extended periods i think it would be impossible to beat s&p500 index with any "other index." investing in a 100 stock index is more risky than 500 stock index over the long term.

    if china can nationalize a business anytime, then US business fundamentals can deteriorate anytime as well, there is no safe heaven

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