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Roundtable: Best Dividend Play

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Based on a reader's question on our Twitter feed, we recently held a roundtable on the best dividend stocks for beginners.

It was well received, so today it's time to take it up a notch -- let's remove the "beginner" requirement with this question:

At today's prices, name your favorite stock with a chunky dividend yield (3% or greater).

Here are some of our top analysts' answers:

Matt Koppenheffer, Fool contributor
This is a really tough call because there are a lot of high-quality dividend payers that look really enticing right now. Rather than go for an easy mark like Johnson & Johnson or Intel -- both of which I own -- I'm going to give a big dividend thumbs up to another stock I own, France's Total (NYSE: TOT  ) .

With other big boys like ExxonMobil and Chevron often dominating U.S.-investor stock talk, Total seems to be the forgotten global supermajor. But whether we're talking financial might, efficient operations, or shareholder returns, Total deserves to be in every conversation about the oil and gas big boys.

Right now Total is changing hands at less than seven times expected 2010 earnings and it's yielding a mouth-watering 6.8%. And though there's a lot of concern over what the U.S. oil and gas backlash is going to be, Total has very little exposure to North America as a whole.

Rick Munarriz, Fool contributor and Rule Breakers analyst
I'm not a fan of the banking giants, but I think there's money to be made in the smaller Hudson City Bancorp (Nasdaq: HCBK  ) . The old-school New Jersey banker didn't belly up to the TARP bar, and it continues to grow by providing the banking services that we thought the big boys were doing.

Hudson City's 4.8% yield is chunky. It's also attractively priced, given Wall Street's expectations of $1.15 a share in earnings this year and $1.27 a share in profitability next year.

Tim Beyers, Fool contributor and Rule Breakers analyst
When I'm not buying high-growth tech stocks, I'm buying dividend stocks. When I get to combine both strategies, I get giddy. That's what I'm doing with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM  ) , which I've owned since 2006 and whose dividend yield has remained above 3% throughout.

History should matter to you as a dividend investor. The best of the best dividend stocks -- Mergent's list of well-heeled "Dividend Achievers," for example -- have spent decades raising their payouts. Through the end of 2009, Taiwan Semi's dividend payments per share had increased by an average of 8.7% annually over the past five years, Capital IQ reports.

Growth also matters, of course, and Taiwan Semi has plenty to offer. Thanks to a worldwide shift toward more powerful and more portable digital devices, its customers -- chip designers such as Texas Instruments and NVIDIA -- are increasingly in need of its contract chip-manufacturing services. As a result, analysts expect per-share earnings to improve 15% a year for the foreseeable future.

Two parts growth, one part income. That's a dish your dividend portfolio will love.

Alex Dumortier, CFA, Fool contributor
In seeking out the best dividend play, I'm going to rely on three of the four criteria I applied to my search for the best dividend stock for a beginner:

  • Dividend yield at least one percentage point higher than that of the S&P 500.
  • Operating in a defensive industry: I like stable, defensive businesses in the best times, but I find them particularly attractive in a recovery that may not be self-sustaining.
  • Reasonably valued: Overpaying for shares is an excellent way to fritter away your money – regardless of how high the dividend yield is.

I looked at a number of candidates that meet these criteria, including pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) (dividend yield: 6.1%) and utility Public Service Enterprise Group (NYSE: PEG  ) (dividend yield: 4.5%). In the end, however, I felt that none could match the combination of safety of dividend and growth prospects that I found in the stock I pointed beginner investors toward: Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG  ) .

Between a dividend yield of 3.2% and estimated earnings-per-share growth of 8.6%, P&G investors can reasonably expect an annualized total return of 11%-12% over the next three to five years. In a world in which the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is equal to Procter's dividend yield, I believe the incremental growth is more than adequate compensation for bearing equity risk on one of the world's finest companies.

Morgan Housel, Fool contributor
I think the perpetually fascinating dividend play is Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY  ) . The current yield is over 15%, and that's about where it's been for the better part of the past two years.

Annaly buys mortgage bonds, leverages up, and milks the income spread, so it's no wonder its business model scares people silly. But the real difference between Annaly and Wall Street blowups is that Annaly sticks with government-backed mortgage securities, so there's virtually no credit risk.

Where there is risk, however, is in interest rates and funding issues. If interest rates start swinging wildly in either direction, Annaly could get squashed. And if capital markets froze up again, funding its balance sheet could get a little itchy.

But given management's track record on interest rate hedges and the incredibly nice 15% yield, the risk-reward trade-off seems pretty lucrative. 

Those are the dividends we find tasty. Now share your ideas in the comments section below. Or go read our roundtable on stocks to avoid entirely.

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Intel is a Motley Fool Inside Valuerecommendation. NVIDIA is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Total A. are Motley Fool Income Investor selections. The Fool has created a covered strangle position on Intel. Motley Fool Options has recommended buying calls on Intel. Motley Fool Options has recommended buying calls on Johnson & Johnson. The Fool owns shares of Procter & Gamble. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

This roundtable article was compiled by Anand Chokkavelu, who owns shares of ExxonMobil and NVIDIA. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2010, at 3:40 PM, tomd728 wrote:

    Anand.......it is very gratifying to see a regular Fool contributor offer a piece that finds this writer

    in total agreement.

    I too am long NLY TOT and JNJ buying on this last

    beat down across all measures.I am also holding boring but steady PM and CPNO for the dividend and Nat gas play.

    The latest NAZ performance has made some quality tech names very attractive IMHO.

    I do not like HCBK because of certain key management guys but the price and yield would be compelling in here were it not for my personal

    experience with the players.

    Nice piece I look forward to more.

    Thank you,

    Tom

  • Report this Comment On June 10, 2010, at 9:56 PM, rd80 wrote:

    Hatteras (HTS) - similar business to NLY.

    As long as the Fed continues to keep rates at zero and Uncle Sugar stands behind Frannie paper, NLY and HTS might as well have licenses to print money.

    Long HTS

  • Report this Comment On June 11, 2010, at 6:01 AM, NewOldMoney wrote:

    TOT is not only an under valued oil major but also well diversified in renewable energy with strong production and much more in the works.

  • Report this Comment On June 11, 2010, at 8:47 AM, DivingDan wrote:

    Also long on NLY, since 2006. They have shown that they can do well in both good times and bad, delivering a constant stream of dividends. I'm long on JNJ too and think PG is the play in the household goods market.

    YAY! for dividends!

  • Report this Comment On June 11, 2010, at 1:00 PM, nickolassc wrote:

    WIN, EDE, SDRL, there's also a lot of REITs paying good dividends but the higher taxation and risk in many REIT's means I would steer clear.

  • Report this Comment On June 11, 2010, at 5:37 PM, sagitarius84 wrote:

    As a long-term dividend investor, I find this list as a great starting point:

    http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2010/04/16-quality-div...

    The market has gone lower since April, so much more dividend growth stocks are attractively valued as well - add in KO and EMR.

  • Report this Comment On June 15, 2010, at 3:52 PM, use2managemoney wrote:

    The time will come wheninterest rates have to rise. When that happens, HTS and NLY will take a major hit. Speculate on HTS and NLY by all means, if you want to, but recognize their juicy yields won't last. Be ready to jump ship when the time comes.

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5/24/2012 4:00 PM
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