By
Brian Orelli, Ph.D.
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August 19, 2010
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After selling some of its stake last year, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A ) (NYSE: BRK-B ) has once again become a buyer of health-care giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ) . During the second quarter, Warren Buffett bought 17.4 million shares of the health-care giant. At yesterday's close, that's a cool $1 billion on top of the $1.4 billion he already owned.
It's pretty clear what the Oracle of Omaha sees in Johnson & Johnson: the diversified health-care giant is as cheap as it's ever been. Pick your favorite valuation metric:
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Metric
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2004
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2005
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2006
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2007
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2008
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2009
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Current
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Enterprise Value/Revenue
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3.65
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3.74
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3.36
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3.30
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2.92
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2.56
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2.50
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Price/Book Value
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5.80
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7.71
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4.64
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4.46
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4.06
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3.51
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3.09
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Price/EPS
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20.71
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21.62
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17.21
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17.73
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16.27
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12.68
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12.26
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Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Average valuation for years indicated.
So should you follow Buffett's lead? Only if you have the same time horizon -- how's forever sound to you? -- and I'm not sure you need to buy as quickly as Buffett did. Keeping in mind, we don't know if he's done yet.
Like its pharma compatriots -- Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) , Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY ) , and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY ) in particular -- much of the lower valuation is due to current and future patent expirations that have slowed growth. But Johnson & Johnson has also been knocked down by myriad recalls recently.
I think there's an excellent chance that Johnson & Johnson turns things around. You don't get too many chances to buy excellent companies at beaten down prices, but I'm not convinced it's going to be a quick turnaround either.
The loss of revenue from its recall-related plant closure isn't the major problem -- that only amounts to about 1% -- but the quality control issues are going to take a lot of management's focus that could be spent working on ways to increase revenue and expand margins.
The best way to play Johnson & Johnson may be to buy in over time, enjoy the solid 3.6% dividend yield, and realize you're in good company.