As most firms on Wall Street this earnings season line up to report the first numbers of their new fiscal years, Swiss computer equipment producer Logitech (Nasdaq: LOGI) is already putting the wraps on its own. Fourth-quarter and full-year 2007 results are due out Wednesday afternoon.
What analysts say:
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Buy, sell, or waffle? Fully 16 analysts now follow Logitech, up four from just three months ago. Thirteen of them rate it a buy, two more say hold, and there's just one seller.
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Revenues. On average, analysts estimate 16% quarterly sales growth to $538.9 million.
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Earnings. Profits are predicted to rise 12% to $0.29 per share.
What management says:
In its own words, Logitech reported its "best quarter ever" in February. Reviewing the results, my Foolish colleague, Anders Bylund, agreed: "Sales increased nearly 15% year over year, net income rose even faster at 36%, and free cash flow went ahead and quadrupled."
With demand for its products surging, the firm believes it has the pricing power to achieve gross margins of at least 34% this year (referring to tomorrow's news). Furthermore, it hopes to close out fiscal 2007 with pro forma (non-GAAP) operating earnings up 30% from last year (the previous estimate topped out at 25%), even if sales grow no more than the previously expected target of 17%. In fiscal 2008, management sees both sales and operating earnings decelerating to a more modest 15% rate.
What management does:
Logitech stopped the slide in its gross margins nearly one year ago, and they've been rising ever since. Likewise, both rolling operating and net margins are on the march upward.
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Margins
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9/05
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12/05
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3/06
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6/06
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9/06
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12/06
|
|
Gross
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33.1%
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32.3%
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32%
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31.7%
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32.5%
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33.8%
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Operating
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11.2%
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11%
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11.1%
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10.9%
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11.5%
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12.2%
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Net
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9.9%
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9.8%
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10.1%
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10.2%
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10.4%
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11.1%
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All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.
One Fool says:
Arguing that "Logitech is executing better than [its] distant cousins" Micron (NYSE: MU) and SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK), and commenting favorably on its move to complement product offerings from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Anders said he was "tempted to take a position [him]self." (Of course, thanks to the Fool's well-known disclosure rules, you all can clearly see that he has not yet done so.)
I can't speak to why Anders hasn't yet pulled the trigger -- but I can say why I wouldn't. As great a job as Logitech has done year-to-date -- actually, probably because of this great job -- the shares don't look particularly attractive today. With a trailing P/E of 24, analysts projecting future growth of about 16% per year, and Logitech itself predicting that this year's growth will be just 15%, the stock scores a PEG ratio of 1.5 at best. While that may not be wildly overvalued, and is in fact equivalent to the PEG ratio scored by hardware maker Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), for example, and cheaper than Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), it's no obvious bargain.
Personally, I'd rather sit back and wait for Logitech to stumble, for the market to overreact to a blip on this firm's superb growth story, and pounce only when and if that happens.
What were we expecting from Logitech last quarter, and what did it produce? Find out in:
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Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any company named above.
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