"Actions speak louder than words." There's more than a grain of truth to the old chestnut, I'll warrant. But why does the media focus so much attention on what Wall Street says about companies? After all, upgrades and downgrades are mere words. What really matters is how the big boys act.
Luckily for Wall Street watchers, the Internet has made it easy to find this out, too. We simply need to read MSN Money's list of the companies institutions are buying. Of course, "Monkey see, monkey do" may not make for the soundest of investment strategies. As we view the professionals' words with skepticism, we might also want to think twice before blindly imitating their actions.
Yet there are times when Wall Street is buying, and the smartest investors on Main Street agree. At Motley Fool CAPS, we track the opinions of 75,000-plus lay and professional analysts, then overweight the most successful raters' opinions, arriving at a "CAPS rating" between one and a maximum five stars. When opinions on Wall Street and Main Street intersect, it just might be the time to buy.
Here's Wall Street's latest wish list, complete with CAPS' opinions:
|
Currently Fetching
|
CAPS Rating
|
|
FCStone Group (:FCSX)
|
$45.90
|
****
|
|
Priceline.com (NASDAQ:PCLN)
|
$115.40
|
***
|
|
Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ)
|
$23.93
|
**
|
|
deCODE genetics (NASDAQ:DCGN)
|
$3.81
|
**
|
|
DepoMed (NASDAQ:DEPO)
|
$3.39
|
**
|
Companies are selected from the "Institutional Ownership Up Last Month" list published on MSN Money on the Saturday following last week's close of trading. Current pricing also provided by MSN Money on the same date. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.
Wall Street vs. Main Street
Main Street investors have mixed feelings about Wall Street's top picks this week. Most stir below-average enthusiasm among our rank and file, and one they're ambivalent about. But CAPS players see promise in at least one of Wall Street's faves: FCStone Group.
A business involved in "commodity risk management" hardly seems a candidate for rocket stock treatment. Then again, everybody loves a hot IPO, and at nine months and change, FCStone is a relative babe on Wall Street (although the company's been around a good four decades). It also doesn't hurt that FCStone's earnings produced a clean triple last quarter. Reason enough for us to take a closer look at ...
The bull case for FCStone Group
Let's lead off with CAPS All-Star HoustonMatt, who seems to have gone right to the source to find out just what FCStone has done:
FCStone offers proven commodity risk management programs, including our comprehensive IRMP, to clients dealing with the following commodities and financial risks: Bean Oil * Bio-Diesel * Canola * Cocoa * Coffee * Corn * Cotton * Cotton Seed Meal * Cotton Seed Oil * Crude Oil * Currencies / Foreign Exchange * Dairy Products * Diesel Fuel * Distillers Grains * Edible Beans * Electricity * Ethanol * Financial Instruments * Gasoline * Home Heating Oil * Jet Fuel * Livestock & Meats * Lumber * Natural Gas * Orange Juice * Propane * Soybeans * Soy meal * Sugar * Weather * Wheat.
Ooookay. So we know what it deals with. But what does it do? fpgabuilder explains: "Businesses that need these commodities as raw materials need to be able to estimate their cost to price their products. FCSX can help businesses hedge their raw material costs."
Now that's a little clearer. Basically, FCStone tells commodity sellers and buyers how to navigate the topsy-turvy seas of price fluctuations. Seems to me that service should be in high demand, with commodity price swings buffeting earnings at food-makers like Hershey (NYSE: HSY ) and Kraft (NYSE: KFT ) , for example.
But is FCStone any good at this? According to ttocsmij, it is:
This is an experienced company. Their specialty is in analysis and advice in regard to products that we need and use every day. And they seem to be good at it.
But is FCStone good enough to justify paying 32 times next year's earnings estimate? I'm not convinced -- but I could be. On one hand, analysts predict this company will grow its profits at 17% per year over the next half-decade. That's good, but I think it's not good enough for the stock's current lofty multiple.
On the other hand, these same analysts have been wrong on their guesses in both of the two quarterly reports FCStone has made since going public. The company turned in earnings 26% higher than expected in May, then thumped the analysts again in August, beating estimates by 86%.
Time to chime in
Of course, the aim of this column isn't just to tell you what I think about FCStone Group -- or even what the other CAPS players are saying. We also want to hear your thoughts on the company. If you've got an opinion, we've got a place to voice it.
RSS Headlines
Fool UK