Thanks, Dave, for the extra ammunition against Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) you handed out. Then again, it only seems fair, because I paid you back in kind. If you only learn one thing from this Duel, it will probably be that the RIM story is hard to tell in black and white.
But when Dave says that the company has braved the same headwinds for several years and has always come out ahead, I think he forgot about the lawsuits that were aimed right at the heart of the BlackBerry operation. Two years ago, you couldn't say for sure that RIM would still be in business today. Those concerns have been around for ages and ages, but they seem to have gone the way of the dodo bird lately.
And the fickle Mr. Market responded with irrational exuberance. You could have held RIM stock between August 2004 and July 2006 without even beating the S&P 500's return. In the 16 months since, the share price has more than quadrupled. The true value of the company today lies somewhere in between those extremes of pessimism and optimism, and imaginary expectations probably add about $30 billion or $40 billion of phantom value to the company.
It feels like a cop-out to point back to the BlackBerry time and again, but it really is the only saving grace on which RIM can lean. Take that product away, and the whole company crumbles to devils and dust. There's simply no way this inspired but moat-less gadget makes a company worth more than multitrick ponies like Motorola (NYSE: MOT), LM Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERIC), or Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), and puts it on almost even footing with Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM).
RIM is enjoying an unsustainable backlash from an equally misguided, pessimistic market. Enjoy it while it lasts, shareholders. Just don't expect it to stay around for very long.
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