Autodesk Will Rise Again

By Anders Bylund February 27, 2008

5 Recommendations

That's the lesson that springs to mind when reading the latest earnings report from Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) and looking at the 16% haircut its share price experienced overnight. The stock is now back to levels not seen since the summer of 2006.

Fine, call me a broken record. I've voiced similar "undervalued!" catcalls on plenty of companies recently, like data security firm VASCO (Nasdaq: VDSI), needs-no-introduction Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), and business advisor Corporate Executive Board (Nasdaq: EXBD). The simple truth is that Mr. Market has been panicking a lot lately, and he needs to get back on his meds.

In the meantime, consider the excellent value you get in Autodesk right now. The company reported GAAP earnings of $0.40 per share, flat compared to the year-ago quarter, but stronger sales than expected at $599 million. The sales growth happened in emerging markets like Latin America and the Pacific Rim, while domestic revenue barely moved at all.

The computer graphics and industrial design software maker delivered a 20% sales boost while decreasing the cost of revenue by about 8%. The flatness on the bottom line happened because the company is scaling up research and sales support faster than the gross income trajectory. Autodesk is planning for the future, investing in it, and looking beyond the short-term costs of getting there.

If you have to invest a few million dollars today to build an international sales force that can generate dozens or hundreds of millions in future sales, it has to be worth the investment. The same goes for spending money to develop the next generation of income-producing products. And I thought stock prices were supposed to reflect future earnings power ...

Autodesk has identified some opportunities, and is doing its best to capitalize on them. Good for Autodesk, I say. Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE) and Avid Technology (Nasdaq: AVID) better watch out.

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