This Just In: Upgrades and Downgrades

At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." So you might think we'd be the last people to give virtual ink to such "news." And we would be -- if that were all we were doing.

But in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We'll also show you whether they know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for rating stocks and analysts alike. With CAPS, we'll be tracking the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and brightest -- and worst and sorriest, too.

And speaking of the best ...
For today's guest analyst pick, we cross the pond, catch a train, then switch tracks at the old Iron Curtain and cross into Mother Russia. There we find our old friend Credit Suisse upgrading shares of Russian milk magnate Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods (NYSE: WBD), apparently oblivious to the dairy price spike that's prevailing around the globe.

Well, not oblivious, exactly. The Swiss banker takes more of a stoic stance, acknowledging the higher milk prices, and conceding that they may cause fourth-quarter earnings (due out later this month) to disappoint. Looking farther down the cow path, however, Credit Suisse believes that long-term, Wimm-Bill-Dann will profit as it rolls up small operators in the dairy industry.

When it comes to evaluating companies in foreign lands, we're often asked to take analysts at their word. Few of us have the resources to travel and check out the situation on the ground, so having an on-the-ground advisor we can trust becomes the next best thing. The question is, can we trust Credit Suisse when it says Wimm's a winner?

Let's go to the tape
Judging from its record on CAPS -- to coin a phrase -- "Yes, we can." You see, according to our scorecard, Credit Suisse is one of Wall Street's best bankers. This analyst boasts 53% accuracy on its picks, and a CAPS rating well within the top 10%, helped by recommendations such as:

So Deere, Agrium, Apple -- seems Credit Suisse has a good handle on stocks tied to agriculture. (Wait a minute ... Apple? Oh, I get it.) Meanwhile ...

One thing's for sure: Credit Suisse does better with the ag stocks than with the airlines. And for what it's worth, I have high hopes that yesterday's Wimm-Bill-Dann recommendation will work out well for Credit Suisse.

The valuation certainly looks propitious. With Wimm selling for 33 times trailing earnings, analysts expect it to grow those earnings at 35% per year over the next half-decade. And while skeptics may point to the company's lack of free cash flow over the past year, I'd argue that 2007 was an exceptional year for dairy concerns. Before the price spikes we saw last year, Wimm had been growing its free cash flow strongly, and generated positive free cash flow for three years in a row.

Foolish takeaway
Between Credit Suisse's record, my own familiarity with Wimm-Bill-Dann's products, and the company's record of outperformance in recent years, I'm siding with the Swiss on this one. Wimm's a winner.