The Hunt for the Next 10-Bagger

10-bagger (n): A stock whose price multiplies 10 times over, leaving the shareholder euphoric, giddy, and ... rich.

Individual investor (n): An adventurous hunter waiting for that trophy buck -- i.e., you.

Boom.
We all want a few 10-baggers to mount in our investing display case. Peter Lynch said it best when he coined the term in his iconic One Up on Wall Street: The more right you are about any one stock, the more wrong you can be about all the others and still triumph as an investor.

Let's illustrate this point: You'd need to lose 100% on nine separate stocks to cancel out the effect of just one 10-bagger. And if you merely lose an average of 10% on every other stock you own, you'd need to hold a whopping 90 mediocre investments to cancel out just one 10-bagger. The effect is that powerful on your portfolio.

Imagine the benefits a 10-bagger or two can offer when you're not making 90 lousy investments in a row.

Once burned, twice shy
We can all appreciate this fairly simple mathematical thinking in the proper context -- but we rarely implement it in our investment practices. Why?

Thanks to our ancestors’ days of battling sabertoothed tigers and perfecting the flight-or-fight response, a large part of our investing brains is hardwired by emotion. This same side of the brain cringes when the market takes a dive, tells you to change your approach after three or four investments have gone sour, and urges you to hide in fear when you should be getting aggressive.

Missing 10-baggers is generally the result of one of three things:

  1. A lack of patience.
  2. An abundance of fear.
  3. A failure to swing the bat frequently enough to hit a home run.

Swing big and strike out a few times, and it becomes tempting to bat for singles and doubles -- or, heaven forbid, to head for the bench and call a financial advisor to stick it all in mutual funds.  

But the great investors know that staying in the game makes all the difference.

Swing early and swing often
Shelby Davis owned literally thousands of stocks -- and turned a $50,000 initial investment into more than $900 million by the time he retired. He reaped huge gains from baskets of great companies, and he got in early on stocks like American Express (NYSE: AXP  ) and Travelers (NYSE: TRV  ) , exercised some mental discipline, and just let them ride.

Such 10-baggers have made other careers, too. Look what Motorola (NYSE: MOT  ) did for Philip Fisher, or what Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN  ) has done for Bill Miller at Legg Mason.

Ralph Wanger of Acorn Investments said, "I might have owned 300 stocks at any given time; most disappeared into the laundry basket. But 10 might go up many times in value, and they made all the difference." Not every investment turned out to be gold -- but the ones that did easily carried the rest of his portfolio.

So how did all these investors catch the elusive 10-bagger amid the lesser opportunities? They bought -- and held -- great companies.

Amen to that
We're well on our way to two 10-baggers of our own in the Motley Fool Stock Advisor investment service. Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL  ) -- an eight-bagger -- and Activision (Nasdaq: ATVI  ) -- a nine-bagger -- represent 43% of our total returns across the service. The power of returns like that is huge.

It's hard to predict which stocks will go on to 10-bagger status – but with every great company you invest in, the probability goes up that one of them will. Like the Virginia lottery commercials say, you've got to play to win.

As an analyst on the Stock Advisor service, I expect I'll see several 10-baggers in the years to come. Just as an example, I think Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) stands a fantastic chance of blowing away expectations with its top-notch brand, miniscule valuation, and a market opportunity that's immense. There are many others.

If you'd like to take a risk-free look at our past and present recommendations, click here for a 30-day free trial. There's no obligation to subscribe, and you'll find dozens of great companies and a few that just might make your trophy case.

Nick Kapur is on his way to 10-bagger status with his shares of Marvel Entertainment. Amazon, Marvel, and Activision are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. American Express is an Inside Value selection. Under Armour is a Hidden Gems and Rule Breakers pick. The Motley Fool owns shares of Under Armour and American Express. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (4) | Recommend This Article (19)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 20, 2008, at 7:08 AM, Ryantrader wrote:

    I like the idea behind the article, but how about throwing us a bone or two? Suggesting Under Armour as a possible anything bagger at this point is a bit ridiculous. Let's see: a company that specializes in compression athletic clothing and currently trades for about $28 is highly unlikely to even double at that price. Either way folks just go to the CAPS screener and find the 5 stars with a large number of All-Star outperform picks. Anything under $10 is worth a deeper look. I love the investment strategy though and I love this site!

  • Report this Comment On July 25, 2008, at 11:12 AM, stocksforever33 wrote:

    Here is one: PWRV. http://www.powerofthedream.com

    Take a look at their last PR, read it an fallow to the product page, and then use that demo. http://www.iglueit.com

  • Report this Comment On July 25, 2008, at 8:47 PM, JayInJapan wrote:

    Ryantrader wrote:

    Suggesting Under Armour as a possible anything bagger at this point is a bit ridiculous. Let's see: a company that specializes in compression athletic clothing and currently trades for about $28 is highly unlikely to even double at that price.

    Me:

    As a point of information, the price of the stock, whether it is $5 or $500, has absolutely nothing to do with whether it will double or become a ten-bagger. As evidence, look at google or Berkshire for companies that don't split their shares. You'll have to do some more digging for companies that do splits.

  • Report this Comment On September 20, 2012, at 10:49 PM, Heath185 wrote:

    Ryantrader, just as an example of a buy and hold stradegy, had you bought UA on the date of your post and held it until today you would be up 306.34%...I quote you "Suggesting Under Armour as a possible anything bagger at this point is a bit ridiculous."

    306% ain't bad for such a ridiculous suggestion.

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