UnitedHealth Looking Healthier

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Investors are downright giddy that UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) isn't quite as sick as it appeared earlier this month, when it slashed yearly guidance by as much as $0.60 per share. They've sent the stock up 16% since the health insurer released earnings on Tuesday. The news even dragged up fellow insurers Coventry Health Care (NYSE: CVH) and Cigna (NYSE: CI).

Revenue rose 7% year over year with the addition of 2 million members, but that's pretty much the only thing that improved over last year. The most troubling issue is the rising cost of health care. The company's medical care ratio -- the percent of premiums paid out for care -- jumped 2.9 points over last year to 83.2%. Combine the increased costs of paying for all of the doctor visits and lab tests with operating costs that were also up over last year, and there isn't a whole lot left to trickle down to the bottom line.

Adjusted earnings per share were just $0.67. That's down 25% compared with last year, but it beat the lowered guidance the company had given earlier in the month. As UnitedHealth continues to cut costs -- at least the ones it can control -- investors should be hopeful that it might beat its lowered guidance for the second half.

Right now, UnitedHealth trades at just 9.4 times the low end of its yearly guidance. That's slightly lower than Humana (NYSE: HUM) at 10.7 and the 10.2 times forward guidance that Aetna (NYSE: AET) sports. Investors are basically factoring in no growth for the health-insurance industry, and that just seems crazy to me, especially since the industry can adjust its prices every year to account for the higher medical costs.

Investors may have to wait a while to see the stellar growth return, but at these prices, the industry looks more like a value play than a value trap.

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Fool contributor Brian Orelli, Ph.D., doesn't own shares of any company mentioned in this article. UnitedHealth is also a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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  • Report this Comment On July 28, 2008, at 8:38 PM, js2776 wrote:

    Mr. Orelli, you are WRONG!

    I work for UNH, specifically I enroll companies (and their employees) in UNH healthcare plans, and I can most assuredly attest that “adjusting prices every year to account for the higher medical costs” is no longer a viable option for UNH or its competitors.

    Every year the number of employees “declining coverage” increases for the simple fact that they CAN NO LONGER AFFORD COVERAGE. Why, because their costs have been “adjusted” every year to the point where health insurance has become a luxury that they can no longer afford. I know it may be incomprehensible but it is the sickening truth.

    A married employee with childern often pays upward $1500-2000 a month in health insurance premiums, this does NOT include dental, vision, or any type of life insurance coverage. This does NOT include co-pays and deductibles which are also being “adjusted” up every year. Now factor in groceries, mortgage, car payment, etc.

    Wages are stagnat, inflation is rising, gas prices are up, something has to give. Frankly, I believe this industry is nearing its breaking point. Profit margins will continue to shrink as more employees lose their jobs and the remaining employees simply can not afford it.

    The old saying goes “ you cant squeeze blood from a turnip”, applies perfectly to this industry and your belief that its growth will resume.

    Additionally, count on more “unexpected increases in claims” to arise from UNH and its competitors in the coming quarters. As more employees lose their jobs or anticipate being laid off they are making sure that they visit their physician for everything possible before their benefits expire.

    I’ll say it again loud and clear, these companies can NOT continue to raise premiums, the fat from the good old days is gone and they are now clawing at flesh and bone.

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