Foolish Forecast: Motorola's Mayday Signals

Recs

2

Mobile-handset designer and telecom infrastructure specialist Motorola (NYSE: MOT) is set to report second-quarter earnings tomorrow morning.

What Fools say:
Here's how Motorola's CAPS rating stacks up against some of its peers and competitors:

Company

Market Cap (Billions)

Trailing P/E Ratio

CAPS Rating

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)

$139.7

30.8

****

Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)

$130.0

17.2

****

Nokia (NYSE: NOK)

$101.3

11.7

****

Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM)

$66.5

43.6

**

Motorola

$16.9

N/A

**

Data taken from Motley Fool CAPS and Yahoo! Finance on July 30, 2008.

CAPS players with a bullish opinion on Motorola often cite the stock's low, low price. But the bears are unimpressed by the current lineup of handsets, in light of impressive smartphones such as Apple's iPhone and the various BlackBerrys, and they like to suggest that the cell-phone division should be spun off so the company can concentrate on network infrastructure instead.

What management does:
Mayday! Man overboard!

Trailing net margin plunged into negative territory two quarters ago, and looks like it's ready to go even deeper. Sales stopped growing and started shrinking before that, and cash flows followed suit a bit later. Motorola is in a desperate situation these days.

Margins

12/06

3/07

6/07

9/07

12/07

3/08

Gross

29.8%

28.7%

28%

27.2%

28.2%

29.1%

Operating

9.7%

7.4%

5%

2.8%

2.2%

2.2%

Net

8.5%

6.6%

3.4%

1.2%

(0.1%)

(0.2%)

FCF/Revenue

6.6%

5.1%

3.9%

1%

0.5%

(0.6%)

Y-O-Y Growth

12/06

3/07

6/07

9/07

12/07

3/08

Revenue

21.3%

14.9%

2.6%

(5.7%)

(14.5%)

(18.8%)

All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.

One Fool says:
Megainvestor Carl Icahn is the main proponent of a Motorola break-up that would separate handsets from everything else, and the company has been looking for buyers for months without much success.

The company just reorganized its business units, splitting the old "home and networks mobility" segment into three pieces. Setting wireless telecom equipment aside from cable networking and high-tech broadband solutions might be in preparation to sell handset design and cell-phone infrastructure operations in a package deal. With a structure like that, perhaps infrastructure giant Ericsson (Nasdaq: ERIC) might give Motorola a sniff, and we've all seen how hungry Cisco can be for sensible pathways into the consumer space.

Until we see an announcement of a deal like that, it's best to assume that Motorola is stuck with its underperforming cell-phone operations, and that the light at the end of the tunnel is both dim and distant. Anything else would come as a massive surprise to this Fool.

Related Foolishness:

“The Next Great Investment”… That’s how a top global investor describes India’s potential. On Nov. 28, The Motley Fool’s Tim Hanson returns to India to prove it. Follow along in real time and get his TOP pick first (Hanson returned from China in July with a stock that’s up 169%!). Enter email below.

Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. And sign up for your free CAPS account today!

Fool contributor Anders Bylund holds no position in any of the companies discussed here. You can check out Anders' holdings if you like, and Foolish disclosure is the Punxsutawney Phil of financial forecasting.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Be the first one to comment on this article.

Compare Brokers

TD AMERITRADE
more info
ShareBuilder
more info
Power E*Trade

more info
Scottrade
more info
Fool Disclosure

DocumentId: 696382, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 11/24/2009 11:19:05 AM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

The Must-Read Story on Fool.com
Live Chat on India, China, and the Demise of the Dollar

Related Tickers

11/24/2009 10:47 AM
MOT $8.32 Up +0.02 +0.24%
Motorola, Inc. CAPS Rating: **
NOK $13.34 Down -0.09 -0.67%
Nokia Corp (ADR) CAPS Rating: ****
AAPL $204.01 Down -1.87 -0.91%
Apple, Inc. CAPS Rating: ***
CSCO $23.77 Down -0.13 -0.54%
Cisco Systems, Inc… CAPS Rating: ****
ERIC $10.06 Down -0.09 -0.89%
Telefonaktiebolage… CAPS Rating: ***
RIMM $59.42 Down -0.58 -0.97%
Research In Motion… CAPS Rating: ***

Community: Investing Wiki

Term Of The Hour

Monetary policy: Monetary policy is conducted by the Federal Reserve and consists of changes in the money supply to change the level of spending in the economy.

Want to learn more or edit this definition?
Click here to read more!