A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for a U.S. president. In the same spirit, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days with our service. Some of our best players -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved dazzling scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since research shows that the best stocks to buy have earned top ratings, might we also assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there's a correlation?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is AirForceFool, who sports a nearly perfect 99.97 member rating. A member since August 2006, AirForceFool has made more than 800 stock picks and has 195 active. Achieving 79% accuracy in that time, AirForceFool has also attracted 153 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this leading member's most recent stock selections and how the stocks have been rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating (5 Max)	Call	Price*	Current Score
AMR	*	Underperform	$11.30	(8.13)
Continental Airlines	*	Underperform	$16.62	(7.84)
Circuit City (NYSE: CC  )	*	Underperform	$1.91	6.55
Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE  )	***	Underperform	$2.50	28.01
Elan (NYSE: ELN  )	***	Outperform	$11.04	(5.03)
Corning (NYSE: GLW  )	*****	Outperform	$20.25	5.07
US Airways (NYSE: LCC  )	*	Underperform	$7.94	(18.50)
Syncora Holdings	*	Underperform	$1.59	(4.06)
Tesoro (NYSE: TSO  )	****	Outperform	$17.91	(1.96)
UAL	*	Underperform	$11.04	(20.73)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
*Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a player is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

No silver lining
Investors are starting to realize that during this commodities bubble, not all investors reap the benefits or get punished alike. For example, exchange-traded fund iShares Silver Trust is down 30% from its recent highs as it tracks the price of silver, but silver miner Coeur d'Alene Mines has fallen by about 60%. A tarnished second-quarter earnings report, higher production costs at its Bolivia mine, and delays in its Mexican startup have exacerbated the effect that the pullback in silver's price has had on the company's shares.

On the other hand, CAPS All-Star member jangopanama still believes that despite some management snafus, Coeur d'Alene Mines is a rare find because it remains largely undiscovered.

Undervalued because [it's] not on the tip of the tongue like Goldcorp or Newmont, which every "man in the street" knows about. Some management blunders have also affected it. But prospects are good for mine expansion in Mexico, and reserves are rising.

Wanted: A prescription for growth
This hasn't been a pretty time for biotech Elan, now, has it? First, it recently reported potential safety issues from a phase 2 trial of its Alzheimer's therapy bapineuzumab. Second, it reported two new cases of a rare but often deadly brain disease associated with its MS-treating drug Tysabri. And third, a Massachusetts state court refused to transfer a Tysabri lawsuit to a federal court that might be more favorable to the biotech's arguments.

Although the spate of bad news has hurt Elan's share price, CAPS All-Star member BeautifulPlumage points to the good news in the bapineuzumab report and finds the sell-off a bit overdone: 

The stock was a little overpriced, but a 40% drop on OK news from its phase 2 trial for bapineuzumab puts it right back in the 'reasonably valued' class, and although the chances of gigantic success from bap have taken a baby step backwards, there is [still] lots to look forward to, including natalizumab [Tysabri] and its brilliant trajectory so far, and its safety profile which [keeps] looking better with every passing month.

Still short-circuiting
Struggling electronics retailer Circuit City is finding its circuits still jammed, as it attempts to find a way to reverse its slide against bigger competitor Best Buy (NYSE: BBY  ) . Circuit City is scaling back its plans for capital expenditures, and an analyst at Citigroup figures that store closings will have to become part of any restructuring the company attempts. It will take some careful maneuvering to avoid a complete short-out.

That reality is on the mind of CAPS member Jim5769, who recently wrote: "The financials indicate that they will continue to lose money and are overextended on their debt to income ratio. Without some immediate attention by management, CC has a doubtful future."

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, you miss 100% of the shots you never take. At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?