Agricultural Angst Ahead?

• Email
• Share
• Print

Yesterday, Lindsay (NYSE: LNN) proved that it's not only eco-friendly, but also profit-friendly.

On a quarterly basis, the irrigation equipment specialist saw revenues double, while per-share earnings nearly tripled to $0.90 diluted. Full-year results were nearly as fantastic.

Over the summer, I singled out CNH Global (NYSE: CNH) as an equipment player benefiting from the Big Ag bonanza, and I pointed to AGCO (NYSE: AG) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) as two additional firms feasting on flush farmers. Lindsay's rousing results demonstrate that the ag boom is still in bloom.

Or do they?

The company fell far short of affirming a strong near-term outlook, saying instead that it was unable to assess the impact of recent commodity weakness and credit-market mayhem. Lindsay provided some reasons to be optimistic -- including the USDA's projection of 10% higher farm income this year -- but if you wanted to be told that everything would be OK, you tuned into the wrong call yesterday.

Monsanto (NYSE: MON), which reported the same day, went much further to reassure investors about the outlook for global agriculture. If you have any investments in this sector, you're doing yourself a disservice if you're not listening to these guys. Don't be like me. I've ignored Monsanto's presentations for too long.

One handy figure Monsanto cited was a debt-to-asset ratio for U.S. farmers of 10% to 12%. That's quite a bit less leverage than firms like Deere (NYSE: DE) or Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) employ. Further, there was the comment that about a third of farm financing comes from the government-backed Farm Credit System, with another 40% or so coming from regional and community banks. This indicates to me that U.S. farmers have uniquely strong bank ties that are unlikely to be severed in this time of stress.

Monsanto also discussed the willingness of Latin American governments to provide liquidity to their farmers. Combine that with Lindsay's comments about China's support for irrigation systems, and global agricultural sectors seem pretty well-supported.

While I would not be (small-f) foolish enough to rule out damaging spillover effects from the wobbly financial system, agricultural cycles largely follow their own drumbeat. In this kind of market, that's about the best opportunity you can ask for. Stay alert, but I wouldn't get too anxious about agriculture just yet.

Related Foolishness:

• Monsanto just keeps on growing its guidance.
• Ag equipment is what's driving Deere.
• ADM remains enthusiastic about ethanol.