Let's Rename eBay

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This morning's most popular four-letter swear word: eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY).

The online commerce enabler posted reasonable third-quarter numbers, but then it let investors down with a dreary outlook for the current quarter.

Given the degrading performance of its namesake auction site and the consistent growth of its PayPal online transaction platform, why are we even calling this company eBay anymore? This is PayPal Incorporated now.

At the very least, there should be a new moniker morphing the two properties. eBayPal has a nice ring to it. PayBay has a groove you can dance to.

But who cares, really? In a couple of years, we'll all be calling this company SkypePal.

Q3 was OK
The dot-com bellwether's summer went reasonably well. Revenue inched 12% higher to $2.12 million, in line with Wall Street's estimates. Non-GAAP profitability rose 11% to $0.46 a share, surprisingly better than the flat $0.41 showing that Mr. Market was expecting.

The performance gets murky only when you look at the company's mere 4% uptick in marketplace revenue, a figure that was positive only because StubHub and the company's growing empire of global classified websites gained ground during the period. Things weren't so hot at eBay.com itself, where gross merchandise volume being exchanged shrank by 1% over last year's showing.

eBay's marketplace business is smoking in global classifieds. Advertising revenue more than doubled, with eBay's portfolio of properties -- spearheaded by Kijiji -- attracting an average of 84 million unique visitors a month.

The party continues at PayPal, where a 27% spike in revenue comes courtesy of a 19% increase in active registered accounts. Look over your shoulders at those numbers again. See how revenue is growing more than its user base? That's fantastic, since it means the company is milking more out of its average user. In other words, PayPal is becoming even more ubiquitous. That's easy to believe, with more and more merchants accepting PayPal. The latest commerce heavies to hop on the "PayPal accepted" bandwagon during the quarter include American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) Walmart.com, and Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL).

Skype is still a rocket, having scored $143 million in revenue on a whopping 370 million users, although revenue growth decelerated to just a 46% year-over-year gain. Skype now accounts for nearly 7% of eBay's total revenue, so it will clearly take time before the Web chat platform becomes a needle mover.

Q4 will be ugly
Turn the page, and it's obvious that we're looking at a blue Christmas for eBay. The company is looking to earn between $0.39 and $0.41 a share in adjusted profits on $2.02 million to $2.17 million in revenue.

This isn't just less than what Wall Street was expecting. It's less than the $0.45 a share it earned on $2.2 billion in revenue a year ago. It's also sequentially lower on the bottom line -- and possibly the top line -- than what it posted in its recently concluded third quarter.

Are things that bad, eBay? This is the seasonally potent holiday quarter, where shoppers should be feverishly trading Elmo Live dolls, Nintendo Wii consoles, and "What Would Meg Do?" bumper stickers. You know that PayPal and Skype will keep growing. The company's recent overseas classifieds acquisitions should also come in handy. The odd word out is eBay itself. Ouch!

The countdown to PayBay
This hopefully is the only shoe to drop when it comes to e-tail stocks. Can you imagine if Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK), and Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE) also threaten to come up short sequentially during the telltale holiday quarter? Analysts are expecting sequential top-line gains of 68%, 78%, and 74% respectively out of those three bellwethers. This sector will clear out quickly if any of these companies follows eBay's lead.

That should not be the case, of course. Shoppers are still flocking online. It's eBay.com itself that's losing relevance in the world. Heck, it's even losing relevance within eBay, the company. The third quarter was the first period in eBay's history in which payment volume from PayPal's merchant services exceeded eBay's marketplace volume.

The company is trying. It bought back 25 million shares during the quarter. And with $3.3 billion in the bank, it has enough wiggle room to buy more shares at today's historically low prices, go after more acquisitions, and replace all of its stationery with a new name.

I guess we still need to come up with that new name, though.

Wait! I've got it.

"Not eBay!"

More items in the eBay bid basket:

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Wal-Mart Stores is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Blue Nile is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick. eBay, Amazon.com, and American Eagle Outfitters are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. The Fool owns shares of American Eagle Outfitters. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a satisfied eBay user, with 173 positive feedbacks to show for it. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story and is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 1:11 PM, vexas1 wrote:

    $2.12 million

    isn't that a billion?

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 1:27 PM, LBBeerman wrote:

    @vexas1

    a billion is a million million in the UK (12 zeros) and a thousand million in the US (9 zeros). 2.2 million is 0.22% of a billion.

    Lets give credit where due, PayBay was coined by Henrietta at RedINKdiary.blogspot.com

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2008, at 1:33 PM, OELdeals wrote:

    Why is eBay giving up on auction biz? I'm doing great there & there will be a new emphasis on frugality that could be very good for eBay. Just moms selling the kids old clothes and DVDs and other moms looking for a deal on same, let alone people and businesses becoming more willing to buy used, good working gear to save $$ ...

    Other sites are not near as friendly to mom & pop sellers. Ebay has made site changes to improve safety that will pay off, they just need to really exploit their advantage now and make it easier for new sellers to jump on board ... Also when was the last time you saw an ad for eBay on TV? Come'on eBay you've got a good product, press your advantage & quit trying to be Amazon!

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 12:08 AM, MaroonCartoon wrote:

    Users are already calling it FeeBay. The way Donahoe is going you might as well call it Amazon Lite.

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2008, at 6:23 AM, DaddyKurtBucks wrote:

    Ebay Motor's latest policies for selling cars and motorcycles is driving away (I couldn't help it) customers. Craig's List is booming because of it.

    It won't kill Ebay, but the word is out, you get better deals elsewhere due to reduced overhead.

  • Report this Comment On October 18, 2008, at 12:26 PM, reednf wrote:

    I am heading to OLA.com they have a solid plan and for only $196 bucks the first year I can sell without anymore fees...No more listing fees, re-listing fees os final value fees...and I am locked in for the rest of my life for only $96 a year thereafter to sell everything I own what a deal...It works great...they are having growing pains because of growth issues but they are a real online auction and thats were I have had the most luck selling. They also allow you to use whatever shipping or payment method you feel good with..

  • Report this Comment On October 19, 2008, at 8:28 PM, EBAYSAD wrote:

    It should be clear, I am a wholesaler and not a good writer or a stock expert, but I have a first hand inside look having been a powerseller almost from e bay start, for over 10 years, 1.7 million per year sales and account for $156,000 paid to e bay per year for seller fees, this is the bases in which e bay shows profit or loss in a great way for there core business, this does not account for paypal fees charged, seller manager pro, e bay stores. Buyers and sellers are leaving e bay, this can be proved by http://www.sellerdome.com/

    It is interesting how the 1500 employee lay off received so much attention, however, the 10% of total powersellers were laid off/suspended because of flawed aggressive policy poorly implemented has not had a placement. This is proved by http://blog.sellerdome.com/?p=16 between 15k-30K e bay powersellers who account for $3000-$20,000 in seller fees paid each month for each of those sellers. This seems a larger story than a simple layoff of e bay employees. Ebay saves money by laying off paid employees, but e bays profit takes a hit by getting rid of partners who contribute to e bay profit. For example: 20,000 powersellers/partners laid off/suspended that account for an average of $5,000 per month seller fees = $100,000,000 each month in seller fees not received by e bay. That is $1,200,000,000 per year in revenue given up for aggressively flawed policy by current management. The idea current ebay management had was by getting rid of 10% of its selling partners was going drive back 32% of its buyers, however, that has clearly not been the case, because the policy change was flawed and implemented with such aggression over a short period of time, 6 months total, 320months aggressively. Ebay seems to have driven away buyers by this and the new search method that sellers or buyers don't like with no concern of management. The company has managed to drive its investors away in the same motion as stock prices show a drop since new management put in place 6 months ago, before market crash. Ebay management charged its sellers/partners for decline in its core business and seems not to have taken into account the increased competition of walmart, best buy, circuit city and many others putting marketing dollars into the online sector of business. Ebay pushing away its partners, sellers and buyers, is only going to make profit softer and push away investors. With 70% more competitors in the market e bay only dropped 30% seems a strong market hold for e bay and a reason to support its partners in a currently working policy rather than place blame partners and will prove to decline its future market share which is pointed out by many market analysis.

    Ebay, through the wild west style new management, took a look at itself and realized it had a drop in the number of sellers buying on its site. It decided it was because of bad "buyer experience" and immediately, it seems without full thought of backfire, decided it was the sellers fault. In some cases, this may be true, but it is most likely because of the additions to online retailers such as walmart, bestbuy, circuit city and the lis t goes on that were not competitors before and had not sunk the marketing dollars into the Internet sector of there business plan before. The more big sellers the less customers for ebay. It is widely known that e bay has blamed sellers rather than external forces for the slow in sales. Instead of working within the community, that once believed that people are basically good, took on a policy that made its community fell like criminals and strong feelings of dislike for the symbol that was once regarded. Ebay has aggressively pushed away its partners will prove to decline its future market share and a relationship that may go un repaired when new management is called upon.

    Ebay has withstood the .com storm because of a superior system and its ability to hold steady to the working core business policy. Its customers fell that is no longer the case and many companies like bonanzle.com and OLA.COM (onlineauction.com) are rushing to try to meet seller and buyer demands that ebay seems unwilling to meet. Many small auction sites have tried to compete in the past but been successful in driving traffic. Now a once complacent audience of e bay buyers and sellers are seeing the changes and the likely hood t hey are being driven away through aggressive, unfair, flawed policy changes and are taking note to change to someone with the old values that made ebay a community that worked. You can see from the chart below the demand that is being driven to for example.

    http://www.quantcast.com/bonanzle.com

    This is a small amount of buyers and sellers compared to e bay, but it does show a market who is hungry to meet the demand of current buyers and sellers, and what is maybe most important that buyers and sellers are finding the ability for change.

    When e bay was a "venue", now it is felt by many of its sellers that it acts as an employer or landlord by design of new policy, it was profitable for sellers and a great value for buyers. Sellers drove traffic to the site because buyers knew they could get many of the items for a large percentage below retail, at or below wholesale. E bay is a follower now and is trying to make itself like Amazon and other .com retailers. Ebay sellers who use Amazon report little to no sales. E bay has a niche (wholesale products) and Amazon has a niche (books, CDs with unmatched distribution etc) and both worked independently of each other, this is why Ebay sellers are not successful on Amazon and Amazon sellers are not successful using ebay. New ebay management has had a hard time realizing Amazon is a different market plan. Many e bay sellers are leaving to do Amazon but it is feared this will not prove successful for them. The e bay system worked and most were satisfied, buyers and sellers could realize other bad buyers or sellers.

    Buyers and sellers are not happy anymore and the numbers will continue to show as long as this management stays. Economy will play a roll, that is why ebay can't afford to gamble with management that has proven to drive its partners, sellers and buyers, away. The company is large enough it will be around for a long time, maybe not in the online auction sector effectively as it was before, but it is still a mystery to many who use or used to use the site why this management has been allowed to make this aggressive of a change. If this is where they wanted to go, it would takes years to change a company this size effectively, it can't be done in 6 months times and certainty not given a slow in the economy.

    Things are not happy under new management/John Donahoe management has made no one happy, sellers or buyers or its investors. It has been a 6 month meltdown since new managemen t fumbled a working system.

    I talked to the owner of onlineauction.com 1-800-900-2828, Rowen Grisham, a previous e bay powerseller who seen improper change coming long before many sellers and buyers realized. He said he had seen a flood of sellers and buyers calling to learn about the site in the last 4 months. Rowen Grishamw says they are about to roll out a goggle search program that will make it more visible. This is just one example of where e bay buyer and seller base is going. Grisham seems to want to supply its sellers and buyers with a fair service, as when the ebay site was born and acted as a venue rather than an employer. Small companies that are hungry and taking advantage of a situation where ebay is not satisfying its demand.

    Anyone considering investing or putting time into future sales may want to take a look at the=2 0aggressive, flawed policy’s they have put in place, there are little to no direct policy as there has been. Sellers, buyers and investors wouldn't be leaving if there was any good reason to stay.

    E bay has done a poor job or emplaning the new changes to its buyers, sellers only after a few months of effect, some loosing there e bay business because of improper, unmonitored data, is still learning and it seems no one knows the answers even at the top account managers level. Its buyers do not realize that the DSR DETAILED SELLER RATING, the 5 stars under the feedback rating is not based on a 100 point scale like every other system in the free world. For example, from 1 to 5, 1 is poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent. With e bay, 4,5 is average and 5 is good, I am glad they didn't have my math teachers in Collage. So many times buyers rate a 3 when they don't realize they are giving the seller a unacceptable rating that could potentially suspend his/her account from e bay as so many has been suspended in the last 3 months because of improper data that has been now used as the bible of e bay to rate seller performance. It should also be noted that a flaw in the data of the 5 star DSR is that if a customer is happy, they fell that leaving positive feedback served its purpose and they have caused a positive vote to the seller, e bay has not educated the buyer, so they do not leave a star rating at all, and are not required to and a large % do not, but leave a positive feedback as it is not required. But the buyer who is mad and is leaving hasty feedback will be more than motivated to leave a 1 or 2 for all stars. For this reason, good sellers offering great service and products are being suspended from e bay by record numbers, this cuts the life cord of the seller as well as core business at e bay and the reason buyers come to the site and investors invest in the company.

    Ebay may have ruined their market flair for both buyers and sellers forever. Too many restricting rule changes, increased charges, paypal demands, seller ratings. This has ultimately destroyed their bottom line.

    Don't think eBay and its payment system engage in unfair, at the very least unethical or even illegal business practices? Retailers are asking for congress to crack down on organized computer crimes, but eBay, said "they would be unfairly targeted in the proposed legislation" Read article from link below:

    http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=3 DAP&Date=20080922&ID=9174700&Symbol=EBAY

    Many sellers, buyers and investors alike have a dedicated special interest and hope they turn themselves around, but it is going to take some quick and correct policy change back to the system that worked to undo what has been done in what would be considered by many as well as a powerseller account manager in a telephone conversation said that this is "the most aggressive change e bay has ever done" it is costing sellers there business and driving buyers away from the site. The Best Match search is fatally flawed and $0.35 listings are not going to fix that.

    Sellers of the unique items that made eBay famous (and who paid listing fees) are leaving in droves, while eBay brokers deals with corporate sellers of new stuff you can get anywhere who don't pay listing fees deteriorate the profits. And their buyers are following them. Watch the Q4 and Q1 figures. A company of this size can keep up appearances for some time, but its customers, its customers customers, that is sellers and buyers, are speaking up and cannot be ignored in the long term, the leader of these policy's are and continue to drive away the core business of e bay and investors are taking notice.

    E bay bought Bill Me Later, I would have been surprised just 6 months ago, but I am unhappy to report that I am not at this time, the reason is this management has taken down the tread that holds e bay together as can be seen by its buyers and sellers everywhere complaining about the flawed aggressive policies that have taken place over the last few months, maybe you have heard some of them or are one of them. Every comment citing that the previous system was not broken. E bay has had community and trust, this 13 year trust has been violated and has failed both sellers and buyers in just a few months of unfair, faulty policy change that has taken a ship this size and turned it so fast that it is out of control and is facing a challenge to bring the ship back to course as it was before in the core business, although still ignored by management at this time, this is just in the core business, this shows the danger of a lateral move like credit right now. Take into account there could't be worse timing as the world economy will not view this favorably given recent events. This policy change was over a short aggressive period, but the negative impact will make it difficult to navigate back in position, if this venture is not successful, it will be even worse for ebay, its investors, and20the management that follows. The core business has taken a great hit world wide, now it is committed to a market that is new. A new market during the time when its core business is in jeopardy due to flawed policy and a slowed economy with management proven only to drive away customers. This will prove a challenge that may take years to repair relationships of its sellers and buyers when it has been realized by investors concerned on top of unpopular credit service. Migration back to the system with effective proven 12-15 record, built by previous management over 12-15 years, seems to be the only way to save the future profits and stability the company once enjoyed.

    So, e bay wants its investors to trust it in a huge risk buy, when the investors are clearly concerned and most can see that e bay can not run its core business in a way that is satisfying to its customers, causing them to leave, look for other suppliers that will eventually be able to meet demands of the once complacent sellers and buyers. Sorry, it would be hard for anyone with basic knowledge of the problems with recent policy of the core business to buy this, having been a seller and buyer for 10 years, it makes it even harder to buy. I can say, I am happy to report my family, who bought stock when they=2 0seen my success on e bay, sold there stock when I explained the new managements flawed, unfair, and aggressive policy handed down. The stock has followed since this and many are betting with there dollars fell it will continue to fall. Maybe Jim Cramer, hyper as he is, has a point when he said he could not get behind the company, and that someone should buy the company "and put them out of their misery." It is hard to argue with him, stock sold back in march, when these policies were being talked about, not yet implemented agressively, sold ebay seems to be the smart move. Stock was $30-$32 per share at that time, March 2008, it dropped every since as can be tracked from any stock quote chart. Yes, the economy took the abrupt hit, stock price had already plummeted by 1/3, $19-$22 per share, before it happened that our country was in trouble from bad credit/debt. Some say they wouldn't want to touch this a credit market at this time. I would also not want to answer to shareholders when they learn what long time sellers and buyers have seen in the past few months. Good thing for golden parachutes I guess, maybe that will soften the fall?

    I think this report on NYtimes has some good in site of the problems facing the company with the current buy:

    http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/ebay-plays-warren-b...

  • Report this Comment On October 20, 2008, at 1:38 PM, beckit wrote:

    PLEASE see the petition to remove John Donahoe as ebay's CEO by doing an internet search of:

    "Ebay Stockholders and Sellers Calling For Immediate Termination of John Donohoe CEO"

    found at petitiononline.com

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2008, at 1:11 PM, ocdgirl2000 wrote:

    Ebay stock has plummeted exactly as I said it would, right after the Q3 report. They HAD to report the totality of the marketplaces as a whole, because if the figures were really exosed, (as each entity's income and losses within marketplaces should be) then the truth would be seen.

    The auctions site itself, that one big site that brings buyers and sellers together has been systematically torn down by the new administartors. There is a lack of coordination between all the changes going on at once.

    Mr Donahoe's new wave theory of disruptive innovation was implemented poorly and stupidly, with no forethought or planning, and is becoming the laughing stock of every old and new member who sits and watches the company fall apart.

    He was a poor choice as the head CEO, as he lacks experience in auction and auction mentality, as well as no experience whatsoever in the marketing of used and previously owned vintage and antique collectibles, etc. None, whatsoever.

    Considering this day and age being one where folks cannot afford the things they once had, recycling and "being green" is what it's all about, not continuously pumping new cheaply made Chinese imports into retail venues, adding to the environments' already saturated garbage dumps.

    The individual sellers who made ebay rich to start with, have been pushed off the site by Mr Donahoe's ridiculous policies that cannot work when the "buyers" are able to steal from sellers so flagrantly.

    When Mr Donahoe refers to the sellers, in utter contempt and hatred as "noise" and "flea market sellers" he not only let the attitude of the site reflect that, but he sold out to the commercialism that ebay never WAS.

    To illustrate the point, we all know about the ads on TV about supplements that people take for various reasons. On a selling site like ebay, folks had some very poor x rated ads placed on their "my ebay" pages" that were totally not appropriate. Insulting? yes. The new face of ebay? yes. The company has sold itself to the very worst of advertising venues no matter how disturbing the ads are. This is not even close to being a buyer driven site. It is a failure. Plain and simple, and so was the choice of Mr Donahoe as CEO.

    I would bide your time before investing in this stock. The core marketplace is collapsing and being filled up with catalog data poured in by only several large offline companies that have sites off ebay. Not the sellers that they thought they would attract. take a better look and you will see! I expect that the company will be seeing single digit prices on it's shares by the end of the year, and it will then be a good buy. I am sure the board of directors will find a new CEO to salvage what's left and rebuild ebay into what it once was.

  • Report this Comment On January 23, 2009, at 9:47 AM, Seller101 wrote:

    The problem is very simple!

    Why we as sellers want to list 7500+ items?

    If the best Match default put our items 123 places down.

    An item that will end 9 hours later,

    That with a combine price and shipping cost of $18.60

    Is in the top first place!

    We offer the exact same Brand New item,

    with a combine price and shipping cost of $11.00

    that will end in 2 hours!

    it is placed 123 places bellow!

    We were doing and average of $12,000.00 a month

    Paying eBay and PayPal around $2,760.00 a month

    Clearly given eBay and PayPal 23% of our gross Sales

    Listing and average of 7500 items a month

    And selling around 680 items or 12% of our listings!

    Of which 10% are repeat buyers.

    With the new best match default listing

    We the sellers are now subsiding

    All of the 122 listings above us!

    Even so we offer the same

    Brand New Item for $11.00!

    We can't believe that eBay is using

    Their coveted ‘Best Match” search engine,

    As their vehicle for a better buyer experience!

    What eBay had fail to analyze is that

    The Best Buyer Experience is coming to eBay

    To find great products at great prices!

    Buyers come to eBay to find a bargain,

    Buyers come to eBay to experience the eBay

    That wants to offers the best deals in the internet!

    But now eBay default search systems,

    List more expensive items first

    with total disregard of ending times or pricing

    Long on the hard knocks,

    But short on the long green!

    Does that give me Venture Capital potential?

    These changes are causing a tremendous

    Decrease on sales with the direct consequence

    Of a decrease on the number of successful listings.

    We are been force to list less because

    We won have

    Revenue to list more!

    It doesn’t make sense to list 7500 items

    To only sale 300 items a month!

    Our operating results and profitability

    Is been harmed by eBay decisions.

    And ultimately we all will loose,

    The sellers, the buyers, the eBay community

    And the stockholders.

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