World's Scariest Stock: Sirius XM Radio

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What do vampires, leeches, and Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) CEO Mel Karmazin have in common?

One bite and they can bleed you dry.

The difference, of course, is that vampires and leeches don't have message boards that fill up with passionately irate shareholders who feel as if the whole world is out to get them by driving shares of Sirius XM lower, when the real culprits are coming from inside the house.

Love the product, hate the stock
It's not easy for me to give Sirius XM the "scary stock" treatment because I've been a satellite radio subscriber for four years. I love the product. However, I'm also a realist -- I can separate the service from the stock.

Investors may also want to learn to separate the company from the stock. When I opened up the floor to reader suggestions to save Sirius XM, a few suggested a charity drive where shareowners and subscribers kick in a little coin to keep the company going.

The problem, of course, is that its 18.6 million collective subscribers will be just fine if common stakeholders go to nil. If Sirius XM files for bankruptcy next year -- a very real possibility, as if the pocket-change share price didn't tip you off -- Sirius and XM will keep broadcasting. It will only be the shareholders who suffer as their stock gets wiped out by creditors, who in turn may hand off the company to a private equity firm or perhaps a terrestrial heavy like CBS (NYSE: CBS  ) , Clear Channel, or Cox Radio (NYSE: CXR  ) .

It's pretty grim when Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes lowers his price target to $0.25 a share, as he did this week. A quarter? Are you kidding me? Jukebox money for a share of the premiere satellite radio provider? Wienkes has been one of the more vocal critics of Sirius XM since the drawn-out merger process. I may have disagreed with him in the past, but there's no sidestepping the obvious: He nailed it this time.

Look out below
As bad as things appear to be at the moment, things can always get worse.

We're now less than four months away from the first of three beefy debt repayments that Sirius XM will have to renegotiate. With nearly $1 billion in debt to refinance next year at a time when the company is hemorrhaging money and creditors are guarding their greenbacks, brace yourself.

I think it would be a disaster for the consumer-facing company if it filed for bankruptcy reorganization. Subscribers who aren't aware of the differences between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 may run for the hills, further capsizing an already shaky operating model.

I'm not as concerned as others about the general weakness in the auto market. Ford (NYSE: F  ) and General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) realize that satellite radio is a steady source of incremental revenue, so they are going to install the technology in more and more cars. The consumer's ability to pay for the subscriptions after the free trials run out is a bigger concern.

Sirius XM is holding up well on that front, for now. However, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) opened up more than a Pandora's box this summer when it launched the App Store for its iPhone and Wi-Fi-tethered iPod touch media players. Some of the more popular free downloads include access to music discovery site Pandora as well as online radio through CBS' Last.fm and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX  ) AOL Music.

Picky audiophiles may object to the quality of Internet radio streams, but those are also the same people who turn up their noses at the popular MP3 encoding format and the compressed state of satellite radio's own broadcasts as they try to wedge in as much content as is feasibly possible.

So how can you not be scared of Sirius XM? And if you agree with me, head out to Motley Fool CAPS and nail the stock with an underperform rating.

As for roughed-up investors, maybe Sirius XM should follow Dracula's lead and avoid coming out during the day. It's probably the best way to avoid taking another beating in the market.

Some other tales of low-priced stocks on the move:

Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is such a fan of satellite radio that he subscribes to both Sirius and XM. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (24) | Recommend This Article (19)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 11:24 AM, mojoworkun wrote:

    Just like the Internet bubble, satellite radio was a Wall Street induced sham from the git go. Too bad the confusion caused by this market abnormality has rubbed off on other innocent people and companies in essentially non-competing, yet related, market sectors.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 11:32 AM, alongshot wrote:

    Bankruptcy is the only way the crooked bosses can save the company for themselves. They get rid of the debt and shareholders but end up with the company. It makes sense. The

    only alternative is to be taken over by a media conglomerate.

    Mel bought shares at $1.37, but he got a salary of $5 mil. Only

    trading money, but it kept people in the stock thinking he was

    confident. But it tanked right after that. We're all fools. They

    have $1.8 mil monthly revenue stream and where is the money

    going. It's obviously being mis managed and probably legally

    stolen. Fools we all are.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 11:33 AM, Peterdom wrote:

    If Mel screws with us little shareholders, we will cancel our services and start a movement to get as many subscribers as possible to cancel even if it's for 1 day to protest his treatment of those who have supported this company with HARD EARNED MONEY. Beware MEL. To us shareholders it is Halloween Day (TRICK) every day.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 11:35 AM, alongshot wrote:

    My mistake above, it's $18 mil monthly revenue stream. All gone.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 11:36 AM, savesiri wrote:

    NO matter how unorthodox will seem my suggestion, hear it out..

    Here it is. There are millions of retail longs in SIRI. If we organize, we can save SIRI single handedly.

    Here is how.

    The debt to be refinanced on Feb, 2009 is $300M

    Let's refinance ourselves. Open a trust, with single purpose of lending money to SIRI with interest. Many of longs are down at least thousands. So assume everyone of us puts just $100 in the trust, and we lend the money to SIRI with 3% rate (Return on your savings acount in your bank is much less). If every long puts 300, we need just 1 million guys. Next, we refinance the other two installments of debt that are due in 2009 in same manner. SIRI solves its debt issue and gets breathing room to concenrate on business.

    Sounds unrealistic you say? Probably yes, but why should only likes of Icahn be an activist shareholders. WE CAN DO also.

    This idea got pretty good traction on SIRI board on Yahoo. The thread is called "Let's do something historic, unprecedented"

    If interested in above mentioned campaign, send an email to savesiri@yahoo.com as well as create an account on www.thepoint.com and after logging-in, search for campaign SAVESIRIUS and join

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 11:55 AM, DemianBohemian wrote:

    Another SIRI slam piece from the Motley Fool....

    There is no way that SIRI is going BK. The combined companies have never been in a better position to start to roll in positive cash flow.

    Why did you guys recommend XM as a stand alone company to your subscribers over $30 a share and slam the combined company now at .34?

    Have you guys forgot how you make money in the market?

    Buy low and sell high......

    SIRI is way undervalued here....

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 12:38 PM, alongshot wrote:

    I think it's a good idea to group together at $100-300 to raise the money to pay the debt. However, if the bosses are crooks, then

    we are still going to lose our money. As i mentioned, they have about $180 mil revenue stream monthly, or about $2.2 bil yearly.

    If we pay off the debts what are they doing with the $2.2 bil. If

    they continue to mis manage and throw the money away, or steal it legally, then it's still gone. Without oversight on the accounting

    we're still going to get screwed. On top of that, the short sellers

    are beating the stock down every time it goes up. So the

    problem is who's watching the money flow, what big investors like Sachs are manipulating the stock, and what the short sellers are doing. The product is fine. It's the managers and the crooks that we are dealing with. So raising the money is fine, but who are we giving it to, the managers and the crooks.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 12:40 PM, alongshot wrote:

    PS. What we need is a share holder takeover of the company and stock.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 12:59 PM, AFGHANREBEL wrote:

    Rick Worte........"It's pretty grim when Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes lowers his price target to $0.25 a share, as he did this week. A quarter? Are you kidding me? Jukebox money for a share of the premiere satellite radio provider? Wienkes has been one of the more vocal critics of Sirius XM since the drawn-out merger process. I may have disagreed with him in the past, but there's no sidestepping the obvious: He nailed it this time."

    UM.....really.....who would have though.........thats like saying I have to piss in the next week.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 1:42 PM, ronofky wrote:

    This is my first and last comment on the "Fools" forum...

    I keep hearing doom and gloom about Sat radio....It's the same message over and over again, with just a little twist for added flavor.....Are these articles published to be informative or just written because the writer needs job security??.....I think the latter....

    It's easy to kick a corpse, or a struggling company.....I guess it now the American way...These pompus little people "writers" no very well that Sat radio is good press.....They just want to push the buttons of millions of small share holders that believe in a struggling company that has been hammered by our wonderful government, the press, monday night quarter backs, and the list goes on and on.......My god, with the burdens they have faced, I don't see how they have made it this far. And yes, the added burden may indeed sink the company.... If I had to swim with a ton of crap on my back, I'd also drown...How about you??...Its easy to stand on dry land and and critize a struggling swimmer....Why not meet the swimmer half way and give a helping hand....OPPS, I forgot, this is not the American way..... Pile on boys, you now have an image to maintain...

    The "fools" forum, plus numerous others, have degenerated to gossip column status. Its a sad day....Don't you think???..... With this, I'll tune out and look else where for good business reporting...

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 2:22 PM, LakeEffect wrote:

    Congratulations, Rick, for finally coming to your senses on Sirius. I've been bearish on this stock since I first looked at it back in January 2005, and it's always bothered me that a fairly savvy investment site like TMF would repeatedly present the "story stock" argument as a legitimate case for being bullish. There are many techniques for assigning a value to a share of stock; "the future looks bright" isn't one of them, especially if the equity is already hugely overpriced, as SIRI has traditionally been. (didn't we learn that lesson when the NASDAQ crashed?) At today's levels, it may be approaching a reasonable valuation, if you consider what they may reasonably expect to earn going forward, but the risk of going to zero is way too real to warrant an investment, IMHO. Scary, indeed.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 2:32 PM, xGreedx wrote:

    Your statement is false.

    First off, I am sure the CEO is aware that Sirius XM has the largest individual stock following over any company. This means not only are most customers subscribers, but most of them are investors. With being the #1 company in this area, I doubt very much that Sirius XM is that dimwitted to see that declaring a BK would be healthy for the company. For many people think alike in this area -"You take my money, I don't care about your service anymore". This will be in the millions. That would destroy them.

    The next option is a reverse split, which would sooth the overall saturation of their stock as well as give it a boost in overall price to make it attractive to investors and mutual funds. This is likely the next step if they feel the market will not bring them back over the $1.00 mark within the next 3 months.

    I personally don't care about any of this, for I know they wont go BK. Worse case scenario is a reverse split, but even then it will be good overall. There are to many corporations tied to Sirius XM. The auto industry is making them default in all vehicles. They wouldnt do this with a company that would go extinct or even playing around with a BK. It takes years to put these in and manufacture. Sirius XM is here to stay.

    The only hard part is picking the best time to invest. This is a good time.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 3:58 PM, alongshot wrote:

    BK doesn't mean there won't be an Sat. Radio. It means they will get rid of the debt, dump the shareholders, reduce their obligations, re-organize under a different business model, keep

    the Corp. to themselves, get paid salaries, pay high fee's to talent,

    have deals with auto makers, and in essence have a completely

    new company under which they profit and not the dumped shareholders. It's also possible they will be taken over then or

    merge with other media Corp. The idea that there is any value

    left to the share price because under the assumption they are

    default with the auto makers misses the point. The Sat. radio

    business goes on but without the debt and shareholders. The

    bosses have nothing to lose. That's the point. It's the shareholders

    who put up the money which they screwed up with. There is no

    value left to the stock price under the current debt load. The reverse stock split will lower the value so much that the price has

    no lower level stability point to support it. No where to go after that

    but out of business under the debt load. The only value it will have is to a takeover Corp. for the subscriber base. That's what they

    are waiting for. The right time to swoop down and take over to get the subscriber base after Sirius defaults, goes into BK to reduce

    debt and then wham, move to take over the subs. base. It's only

    value is in terms of revenue stream. That's it folks. It's a loss and

    a right off. It's not coming back in it's current form as it is structured now in it's business model. The stock value price can

    not recover because there is no value to recover against it's

    current management policy, it's debt load, and future growth.

    There are no numbers that can reverse the situation. Any one

    putting money into the company now might as well just right a check to Mel as a present. I like the idea we all cancel our subscriptions to stick it back to them. Except it's still a good product and where hooked on Sat. Radio. What a dilema.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 4:28 PM, sirisorry wrote:

    Could Mark Wienkes keep banging Sirius because Goldman Sachs has seriously shorted the stock????

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 4:40 PM, ndboymb wrote:

    Alright, I'm trying to do the math on this refinancing the debt, and might be valid to bring up at a shareholders meeting if it does have enough traction.

    a couple of things. First, would each long share, have to put in $100 or would each shareholder with a long position have to put in $100? Thats a difference of me loaning SIRI $100 or $1,000,000 which I can tell you I don't have just laying around.

    Next if this does happen, I think as shareholders, we do a proxy fight and replace the board or at least gain some seats and replace the CEO. Possibly with someone for the likes of the former eBay CEO.

    Finally, we need another revenue stream. I know that we don't want to break away from the no commercials. However, no one said we couldn't sell the commercial naming rights to the individual stations like they do to ball parks as well as show visible advertising on the screen during a song. Companies would pay for that. For example if Starry eyed surprise comes on, maybe a Coke ad pops on the screen.

    It's done at the Olympics and at baseball and football games, don't know why it can't be done on Sirius.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2008, at 9:29 PM, LakeEffect wrote:

    People, please stop embarrassing yourself with this "Save Sirius" charity drive. Aside from the fact that they've already received a capital investment when they issued the share, the company doesn't need your permission to use your money to refinance their debt*, nor are they going to pay you interest.

    They've already started. If you've been reading the SEC filings this month (and you should), you already know that Sirius has exchanged 132,231,070 shares of common stock in exchange for $50,000,000. This came out of your pocket. All Sirius shareholders coughed up a fractional part of their holdings, so the company could give it away to its creditors. And they are going to do it again.

    Come on, folks, educate yourselves. TMF is a great place to do it. Take advantage of it.

    *They're going to need your permission soon, in the way of a vote, to issue more shares. So that they can continue this strategy, they really have few other options. Know what you're voting on, and the consequences thereof.

  • Report this Comment On November 01, 2008, at 11:05 AM, sl6209 wrote:

    MikeRehling...

    I won't insult you...this time!...but duh, I know it wasn't pulled from the Siri investor page, that would be illegal. What I was talking about was it was pulled from the mainstream financial reporting sites (yahoo, aol finance, etc...). Poof, it was gone as fast as it appeared. And my ultimate point to Big Rick was that is not the kind of document the company wants hanging out where the public can easily get it. They make you either go to their website or Edgar to see it. But by posting it to the media for a few hours, they satisfy their requisite reporting duties. See? And further, how interesting that their other latest 8K filings and the proxy are all still out in plain sight. This one...nope. That's the point. Mel calls his shareolders unsophisticated. That's how they pull important docs and no one even misses a trick. How many shareholders even noticed this little subtle form of protection by the company? If you are not astute, this company will rob you blind my man.

    Rick....since I had to take the time to set this matter straight.. I ask you one more time. Please do some reporting man!! Leave the lightweight stuff like this and your article from yesterday behind and tell some truths about the stock and company. It's all there if you just stop phoning in your stuff...Then people will give you cred!!! Thank you.

  • Report this Comment On November 01, 2008, at 11:17 AM, sl6209 wrote:

    And people!!!!! Please stop with the "if we all send SIRI $1 it will get them out of debt" busness. Listen to your man LakeEffect. You are proposing something preposterous!!! That's not the way the game is played my dear friends. If for no other reasons (of which there are plenty), this company has it's own plans of how they are steering the company (just look at a 4 year chart of the stock price and the new supplemental prospectus now only available on the SIRI investor page or Edgar) and those plans do not include you!!! Shareholders to this company are not valued and are considered a means to a greater end as delineated by the company. And believe it...they are only asking for your permission via a vote on 12/18 because they ARE REQUIRED TO. If they weren't, trust me, the additional 3.5B shares would already have hit the market and...etc. And all you would be left with is a dropped jaw and words like wtf!!!

    Rick...yet another scary article...remember, substance = cred!!

  • Report this Comment On November 01, 2008, at 1:58 PM, minktrapper wrote:

    Hey, I like the idea of forming a group to donate $100 to Mel. Let's do it like a chain letter....we can use my home address to send all the money to and I will see that Mel gets it. Let me know when you want to get it started.

  • Report this Comment On November 02, 2008, at 10:20 AM, splintar wrote:

    Rick:

    Just for one minute I want you to imagine that SIRIXM is able to refinance all it's debt into next year. I know maybe the odds are not there - fine.

    But for this argument, I want you to assume that as a given and assume it is not at much worse terms than what their debt costs now.

    Then I want you to explain the possibilities and the scenario for SAT RAD under that circumstance.

    I also want to you to make explicitly clear what all the draw backs are to Apples ipod wi fi apps.

    Like how limited they are in reception and how much they cost. I also want you to tell me about how Pandora will continue to function as a going concern and get to keep playing copywrited music for free (No ads or sub fee).

    Then I want you to explain how while the competition is figuring all this out, SAT RAD doesn't continue to grow across the following verticals.

    1. Look fervently to add a music library component from the combined entity that dwarfs the iTunes (AAPL) selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. The library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song. I want you to reference the article from the WSJ published on August 28, 2008 entitled "More Artists steer clear of iTunes". It was front page on the marketplace section. Mel, you need to embrace these artists and create a library that they are all proud to belong to. It's not necessarily going to be about making money on the library. You break even there and concentrate on driving more subscriptions to your service. You can beat iTunes by taking the artists away from them, getting goo d musi cian PR, and offering a much better value across verticals to your consumers. This one step is and absolute no-brainer.

    2. Develop a clear and comprehensive strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season. Start the press releases NOW! It's September already

    3. Let it be known that this service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software. OEM loaded software should enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the new handsets from Nokia (NOK) and Samsung, extending its reach over multiple platforms. Forget about the iPhone. You must partner with Microsoft (MSFT) here and get this done. The iPhone will need to come to you by default once you get out in front on this and drive your service.

    4. Include with this desktop software a Pandora-like option, connected to the new library. Have a structure that is either advertiser sponsored or subscription based. This is not a hard software program to write. Again, Microsoft will be your best friend here, and not Sony (SNE).

    5. Challenge Clear Channel relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Develop common ways to share revenue with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues by offering this pay-for-listen service. This step is as huge as the number one point, and I would recommend doing a major live concert broadcast as soon as you can, working with the artist to facilitate sales and downloads. Again, just breaking even provides a huge boost to the brand here. Another absolute no-brainer.

    6. Expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs. Make your product more robust.

    7. Look to expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2011 / 2012. A longer term vision, but absolutely huge. Develop a relationship now with Branson and Virgin that will enable him to be your partner in that country. He is a definite possibility to supply reasonable debt refinancing for your due convertibles, if this is a business opportunity that makes sense for him. And it will.

    8. Also look for Sirius TV, which will be a show created for cable and the web that covers Sirius and all of what it is up to. It will include special features about artists, the industry, the studios and the glitz. It needs to be more encompassing than what you offer on your site currently. Paid for almost entirely by brand placement and promotion, this does not have to be a fancy production.

    9. Also use cheap guerrilla locally targeted marketing for innovative infomercials. A much better use of your advertising dollar, and production costs should be mitigated by using content and services from the Sirius TV endeavor.

    Thanks Rick. Oh, and don't put in all these caveats about the debt up front. For the sake of this dialogue just accept it as a given - period.

  • Report this Comment On November 02, 2008, at 10:41 AM, splintar wrote:

    Also, one more thing, based on the logic of so many here, why doesn't every company just let their stock collapse so they can re-organize and get rid of debt.

    If it was that easy, and that much of a no-brainer win, why wouldn't every company trading under a dollar today just go bankrupt and reorganize?

    Oh, I see, this only relates to Sirius. They are the only company that needs long term debt, who won't have earnings in 2009.

    Yeh that's it, who cares about 2.7 billion of cash flow and a rising subscriber base.

    No, no, no - they need to borrow money so, hey, then I guess they need to go bankrupt.

    COMPLETE and UTTER morons here.

    There are 1000's of companies that need to refinance long term debt and trade below a dollar (especially now - which is why Nasdaq lifted the $1.00 floor). And most off them don't have nearly the cash flow of SIRIXM or the growing subscriber base and the available verticals.

    These same Companies are looking at no or Punk earnings next year (it's a recession stupid). So - hey, I guess they all need to go bankrupt and take themselves private. And yeh, the government will get behind that kind of behavior. That's the kind of reform you can expect.

    Like I said - COMPLETE and UTTER "FOOLISH" morons here.

    This a once in a lifetime opportunity as every one just simply thinks the sky is falling. You see this psychology at absolute rock bottoms.

  • Report this Comment On November 02, 2008, at 5:36 PM, MikeRehling wrote:

    World's scariest eh? How about that Motley Fool recommendation:

    DBTK

    If you think GS misses on occasion, check out the 'Fools' picks. Lost my ass on that one.

  • Report this Comment On November 02, 2008, at 8:36 PM, alongshot wrote:

    It seems splintar lacks historical understanding and knowledge

    about BK, refinancing and lost stock values. He sure doesn't lack the ability to call people morons. That is a sure sign of stupidity.

    Historically many companies do go BK. Many companies do buy

    their own shares back when they go low and then go private. The

    corp. who uses BK try to re-organize based on the actual value they have in assests. Sirius has no solid assests. They have a

    fluid subscriber base , high debt, and high talent fees.

    If splintar had a brain he'd realize the stock has no value left.

    The $2.7 bil revenue stream doesn't cover the bad business

    model management set up for it's operating expenses, debt

    refinancing, talent fees, and new subs acquisition. It's going

    to continue to be in the red which means it has no way to refinance because it has no future earnings to pay it back. Otherwise moron someone would have refinanced them already.

    No one will give them money because there is no way to pay it back and they have no real assests to value. BK can be used by

    Corps. to reorganize because their product or commodity has

    an intrinisic assest value that may appreciate. Subscribers will

    not appreciate in value. The long list of new products splintar

    spews is ridiculous. Where would Sirius get the money to develop

    new products. Are the new products going to materialize out of thin air. There's no money. So the bottom line is this. No money

    to cover expenses, bad management and possibly wrong doing by the bosses with the revenue stream, debt they cannot repay,

    and an uncertain future about increases in subs. The only thing

    left is to be taken over, go out of business, or BK. If they could

    go BK and keep the corp. for themselves, which do you think they will choose.

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2008, at 4:54 PM, UpsideHunter wrote:

    If SIRI goes BK, it will be lawsuit city like never before... As many posters have mentioned, there are lots of ways to finance the company and avoid BK -- including doing a rights offering with current shareholders. If management ignores the options and just declares BK -- or sells to private equity for less than $5 -- there will be massive repercussions. Count on it.

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