The Best Stock Idea I've Ever Seen

Nowadays it's hard to imagine any stock being truly great. But if you're a long-term investor who's hoping to profit tomorrow from today's panic, my advice is to invest in firms that exhibit each of these three winning traits:

  1. They're self-funded. Top stocks produce bushels of free cash flow. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX  ) are perfect examples of this. Combined, they've produced more than $16 billion in FCF over the past 12 months alone.
  2. They're growing fast. Big winners tend to attract customers and produce massive revenue growth, as GameStop (NYSE: GME  ) has over the past five years.
  3. They possess sustainable advantages. Great stocks have the chops to fund growth and expand margins. Think of Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN  ) and its reputation for quality. Or Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL  ) and its timeless clothing brands.

Every one of these firms is a great business. I highlight them here because history proves that, while low-priced businesses can make for good returns, reasonably priced great businesses can make you rich.

Cheap stocks, cheap returns
Consider Google. When the search king was preparing for its August 2004 IPO, hundreds of stocks sold for less than 15 times earnings. Why pick 15? Jeremy Siegel pegs the 130-year average P/E of the market at 14.45.

Google, selling for around 100 times earnings, wasn't anywhere near that. Investors adhering to the investapo's party line -- that pricey multiples are rarely rewarded -- opted out of Google and into "cheap" stocks. Barclays (NYSE: BCS  ) and Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU  ) , for example, which were trading for 13.8 and 14.1 times earnings, respectively, on the day of DoubleGoo's public debut.

But it was the cheapskates that went unrewarded. Barclays and Prudential Financial have lagged Google and the market since the summer of 2004.

Great businesses, great returns
If you checked my portfolio today, you'd see that I've finally learned my lesson; Google is too great a business to ignore. But it isn't the best stock idea I've ever seen.

The stock I'm thinking of is self-funded, growing fast, features sustainable advantages, and accounts for more than 20% of my portfolio. Here's why:

  • Free cash flow exceeded $100 million over the trailing 12 months.
  • Return on invested capital exceeds 40%.
  • Operating margins are expanding dramatically and net margin is up over 25%.

What really excites me, though, is that this stock, which commands less than $3 billion in market value, is about to enter a hypergrowth phase that should unleash tens of billions in additional value.

David Gardner agrees. Three times he's recommended this stock to Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscribers since the July 2002 issue. Learn why with a 30-day free trial to the service. You'll get unfettered access to all of David's picks and there's no obligation to subscribe.

Fool contributor Tim Beyers had stock and options positions in Google at the time of publication. Google is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. Wal-Mart is an Inside Value pick. GameStop is a Stock Advisor selection. The Motley Fool's disclosure policy would be the best-dressed disclosure policy if words didn't already prefer to be naked.


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  • Report this Comment On March 01, 2009, at 5:44 PM, jtrue wrote:

    On 11-7-08, the day of this article RL closed at $45.80. Today 3-01-09 RL is at $34.47. The market reflects the future. Which direction does anyone think this stock will be heading?

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