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Is Wal-Mart Really Recession-Proof?

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Even though Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) has often been one of the few retail bright spots out there these days, it seems like some investors got the creepy feeling that maybe it's not as immune as they once thought.  

Wal-Mart's third-quarter net income increased 9.8% to $3.14 billion, or $0.80 per share. Income from continuing operations increased 6.6% to $3.03 billion.

Revenue increased 7.5% to $97.6 billion, and U.S. same-store sales jumped 3.3%; without fuel they would have increased a still impressive 3%. Meanwhile, in another metric Fools like to see increasing, Wal-Mart generated $2 billion in free cash flow in the first nine months of the year, compared to a deficit of $1.3 billion this time last year.  

The bad news is Wal-Mart's guidance for fourth-quarter earnings of $1.03 per share and $1.07 per share. For the full year, it expects earnings between $3.42 per share and $3.46 per share.

The fact that Wal-Mart "tightened and modestly reduced" its guidance seems to give some investors a cold shudder. After all, this has been a chilling time as so many retailers have slashed or even withheld guidance due to incredibly tough times for consumers. Wal-Mart's word just a day after Best Buy (NYSE: BBY  ) gave a chilling assessment is probably not too comforting.

Wal-Mart, Costco (Nasdaq: COST  ) , and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) have all been understood as safer havens in the economic storm, since they offer bargain-priced merchandise. Companies like Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI  ) have shown they have a far bigger struggle on their hands.

Wal-Mart is safe, but not immune to the spending slowdown; it's silly to imagine it would be. And while Wal-Mart has traditionally been one of my least favorite companies on the retail horizon (I just don't like how it does business), I have had to admit that its discount offerings in the current economic climate probably do make it a safer stock than most (and our Motley Fool CAPS community is pretty darn bullish on the stock -- it's got a four-star rating there).

I don't think there's any reason to dump shares of Wal-Mart, even if it shows it's not completely immune. It is without a doubt a survivor for these troubled times. However, I think a couple other things look even clearer: There will be some credit coal in Christmas stockings, and we may be witnessing the death of excessive luxury on the retail landscape. These elements should help Wal-Mart, especially in the near term.

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Wal-Mart is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Whole Foods Market and Costco are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax owns shares of Whole Foods Market. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 14, 2008, at 1:13 PM, Milligram46 wrote:

    Given how deeply consumers are cutting back, WalMart* remains one of the few havens in the retail sector. Maybe the real question at the risk of speaking in hyperbole, is WalMart* DEPRESSION proof. It has proven time and again that it doesn't allow a recession to run its business, they play to strengths.

    Oh ya, and I'm first!

    Milligram46

    Refused to shop at WalMart*

  • Report this Comment On November 24, 2008, at 6:44 PM, dividendgrowth wrote:

    After a depression, Wal-Mart can only get stronger because most of its competitors will be out of business and it will get anything it wants from local governments.

    But WMT is not bear market proof. There will be days when WMT goes down 20% on a 5% earnings growth.

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Related Tickers

2/14/2012 4:00 PM
WMT $62.22 Up +0.43 +0.70%
Wal-Mart Stores CAPS Rating: ****
MCD $99.55 Down -0.10 -0.10%
McDonald's Corp CAPS Rating: ****
WFM $80.99 Up +0.03 +0.04%
Whole Foods Market CAPS Rating: ***
BBY $25.49 Up +0.28 +1.11%
Best Buy CAPS Rating: **
COST $84.10 Up +0.23 +0.27%
Costco Wholesale CAPS Rating: *****

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