Constructing a Case for a Beaten-Down Group

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It's hard to believe: We've just experienced back-to-back days in which the equities markets surged nicely. And after getting beaten down by Mr. Market like a rented mule, one sector now appears to be giving investors good reasons to hope for a rebound -- for at least a little while.

The industry? Construction.

No, I'm not talking about housing, despite the homebuilders' attempts to tap into government bailout money. Rather, I'm talking about the public works folks, such as Fluor (NYSE: FLR). The company is involved in all manner of big projects, ranging from energy-related building to crucial infrastructure work on roads, highways, bridges, rail facilities, and airports.

Probably because the administration-in-waiting has been talking up infrastructure work as an elixir for our sputtering economy, Fluor's share price has tacked on more than 25% in the past two trading days. Ditto for Granite Construction (NYSE: GVA), a California-based public-works company that has seen a 20% rise.

And then there are the cement producers, about half of whose output ultimately ends up in roads, bridges, and other public-works projects. Dallas-based Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI), for instance, operates cement and ready-mix facilities in California and Texas. It has seen its share price execute a two-day 17% improvement -- that after plunging 75% from its 52-week high in May.

And then there's another "Big D" operative, Eagle Materials (NYSE: EXP), which operates four U.S. cement plants and has enjoyed a 13% two-day bump. Eagle will be somewhat slower to respond to a public-works recovery, since it also operates gypsum wallboard plants that serve the homebuilding industry.

Yet despite having substantial U.S. assets, big Mexican cement manufacturer Cemex (NYSE: CX) hasn't quite joined its upwardly mobile peers. It gained just 7% on Friday and Monday. Clearly, in the face of a U.S. infrastructure push, Cemex's response will be slowed by drag from its assets elsewhere across the world.

The building of new roads and the reconstituting of bridges won't start overnight. Nevertheless, the companies operating in the heavy-construction sector have surrendered so much value recently that even the slightest glimmer of hope could push them back toward a recovery.

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Fool contributor David Lee Smith doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned. He does, however, welcome your questions and comments. The Fool has a cement-cured disclosure policy.

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 27, 2008, at 9:26 AM, williamedavis wrote:

    This is a good analysis of the opportunities in the construction industry as far as it goes. The reality for construction is that most of the players are privately held companies...99.99%...so it is hard to make direct investment in the segment.

    Having said that, it is possible to buy this market at the edges through the companies that supply contractors, particularly construction equipment firms.

    Normally construction equipment is so long-lived that it is hard to take advantage of short-term opportunties such as the Obama stimulus package. However, right now there is a play caused by the new air quality regulation of existing machines, which is causing forced retirement of the existing fleet and requiring new machines to meet very high emission standards.

    This is starting in California where the Air Resources Board approved regulations in July of 2007. CARB is seeking EPA approval of its rule and should get it by the first of the year. When that happends, 20 other states can adopt the California regulation, which will cause a massive outflow of existing machines and purchases of new, lower emission equipment.

    There are about twenty stocks in the segment but only a few are in the arena--Caterpillar, Deere, Hitachi, CNH, and Terex jump to mind--and while their shares have been beaten down, they started moving up this week,

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