Turnaround a Tall Order for Talbots

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Talbots (NYSE: TLB) shares spiked today on an utterly abysmal quarter. Of course, it's pretty easy for a stock to spike when it's in low single-digit territory.

The retailer's net loss for the quarter was $167.2 million, or $3.13 per share, which includes charges related to discontinued operations. Its net loss from continuing operations (remember, Talbots has gotten rid of the men, kids, and U.K. concepts, and it also plans to sell J. Jill, which has now been reclassified as discontinued operations) was $14.8 million, or $0.28 per share, and that figure missed analysts' expectations by $0.06 per share.

On the revenue side, sales fell 13.7% to $357.3 million, and same-store sales dropped 13.9%. The retailer declined to give fourth-quarter guidance, saying it expects "the environment to remain difficult and volatile."

If there's any element investors may find remotely comforting, it's that Mizuho Corporate Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. agreed to convert their existing uncommitted working capital lines to committed working capital lines. This alleviates concern that this debt-laden retailer could face an imminent liquidity crunch, which would certainly have been a death knell.

Interestingly enough, rival Chico's (NYSE: CHS) also rose earlier today even though its third-quarter results were similarly unpleasant -- Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) didn't do much better last week. Ignore the stocks' ups and downs: The theme is that retailers aiming for older females are really falling flat, and that's exacerbated by the economic headwinds.

Talbots remains among my least favorite retail stocks. I have had a long-standing theory that its mature clientele are the shoppers who are most likely to pull back spending when times get tough, as compared to their younger counterparts. In addition, the acquisition of J. Jill was a mistake that really mucked up Talbots' balance sheet, and debt-heavy retailers aren't a red-hot idea in the current market environment.

I nominated Talbots as the World's Scariest Stock for our Halloween series this year. Foolish readers chose Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) as the Scariest, but I'd say Talbots' precipitous drop from a high of $10.59 on Oct. 30 vindicates the concerns I had about the high stock price, onerous debt, flagging operations, and overall market conditions.

And I still insist, "Buyer beware." There are beaten-down retail stocks galore for companies that are not only not in dire straits, but are doing pretty well, too. Betting on Talbots' turnaround remains a speculative and risky move. There's no reason for investors to take such risks when real quality retail stocks are out there -- and on sale to boot.

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Alyce Lomax owns shares of Starbucks. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 25, 2008, at 4:34 PM, vmb63 wrote:

    You know what I think? I think you have a hair across your arse for Talbots. I've never read anything positive from you in your reports....Is the road bumpy? Yes. Will it be difficult? Yes. Having said that it's nice of you to ignore and disregard the long standing history of this company and the loyalty of its customers.

  • Report this Comment On January 26, 2009, at 2:38 PM, birddog1939 wrote:

    It's this sort of negative reporting that only fuels the fire of dispair among the shopping public. It sure encourages people to go out and spend, right. I'm getting so tired of listening to people who offer no encouragement to see this economic slump through and can only see the negative side of almost everything and then keep beating the drum of doom for company's such as Talbots who have been around for so long with so many jobs at stake. Why don't people like you back off for a while and give company's like this a little time to recover, not just Talbots but all aspects of our economy.

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Related Tickers

11/9/2009 4:01 PM
ANN $13.57 Up +0.53 +4.06%
AnnTaylor Stores C… CAPS Rating: *
CHS $13.13 Up +0.66 +5.29%
Chico's FAS, Inc. CAPS Rating: **
TLB $9.19 Up +0.69 +8.12%
The Talbots, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
SBUX $21.10 Down -0.02 -0.09%
Starbucks Corp CAPS Rating: **

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