A 1-in-100 Investor

• Email
• Share
• Print

Just as the first 100 days in office set the tone for a new president, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since data shows that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is wcwhiner, who sports a nearly perfect 99.95 member rating. A member since October 2006, wcwhiner currently has 130 active picks on CAPS out of more than 1,230 stock picks made. Achieving 79% accuracy, wcwhiner has also attracted 167 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating  (5 Max)	Call	Price*	Current Score
CIT Group (NYSE: CIT)	*	Outperform	$1.72	56.24
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB)	*	Outperform	$45.54	(23.24)
Fifth Third Bancorp	*	Outperform	$7.76	7.96
Macy's (NYSE: M)	*	Outperform	$5.51	17.16
UBS (NYSE: UBS)	*	Outperform	$9.00	33.96
Valence Technology	*	Outperform	$2.78	(22.53)
XL Capital (NYSE: XL)	*	Outperform	$4.19	8.73

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Current score is how many percentage points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.
*Price when call was made.

Let's look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

CIT Group
Following the likes of American Express (NYSE: AXP), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), and others, CIT Group applied to become a bank holding company, possibly as a means of grabbing on to some of the $700 billion in tax dollars the Treasury is doling out. Whether that will save the company from ruin or not has investors split. CAPS member Daretoth figures the bounce CIT's shares got marks the beginning of the end.

"The bubble is over. This company can barely pay the interest on its debt. They [are] broke and heading for zero and since it went up 33% today I figured it was as good a time as any to [call underperform]."

Theresewin, on the other hand, finds the Treasury's "no bank left behind" policy a case for seeing CIT bounce further. "With all of the government money now out there and assurances that essentially no one will be left out to dry ... I think this bounces from here."

Macy's
While some smart Fools think the Grinch may have already stolen Christmas for Internet retailers, CAPS All-Star NEWSMONKEY thinks shoppers may also have hearts two sizes too small when it comes to their bricks-and-mortar brethren like Macy's.

"[N]o one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) [that people] put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even [Wal-Mart]) that will have a great quarter. ... Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets. ... My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more."

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?