1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Delta Air Lines

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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 125,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) has received the dreaded one-star ranking. Our data has shown that one-star stocks woefully lag the market average; conversely, five-star stocks outperform the S&P by a significant margin.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Delta's business, and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Delta facts

Headquarters (founded)

Atlanta (1924)

Market Cap

$3.74 billion

Industry

Airlines

TTM Revenue

$20.67 billion

Management

CEO Richard Anderson (since Sep. 2007)

CFO Hank Halter (since Nov. 2008)

Net Income Margin (average of last five years and TTM)

(24.4%) and (36.6%)

Competitors

AMR (NYSE: AMR)

Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL)

CAPS members bearish on DAL also bearish on:

US Airways (NYSE: LCC)

UAL (Nasdaq: UAUA)

CAPS members bullish on DAL also bullish on:

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)

Sources: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's, and Motley Fool CAPS. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over on CAPS, 57.3% of the 192 All-Star members who have rated Delta believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These Fools include dexion10 and sandvig, both of whom are ranked in the top 5% of our community.

Early last month, dexion10 made this simple, commonsense bear case: "too many planes, too much debt, not enough passengers. insider selling."

In a pitch two weeks later, sandvig shared that bearishness, citing Delta's alarming red numbers as its biggest red flags. Here's an excerpt:

There are so many reasons to give this a thumbs down.

The "Profiles" tab reveals that it has a return on assets of -29.50%; it has a return on investments of -64%; its long term debt to equity ratio is 3.88, reflecting lots and lots of long term debt; it has negative cash flow.

They have a fleet of old planes that need to be upgraded. The last time I checked, new airplanes are expensive.

What do you think about Delta, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. More than 125,000 investors are waiting to hear what you have to say. CAPS is 100% free, so simply click here to get started. 

On Jan. 12, 2009, Fool co-founder David Gardner, Jeff Fischer, and their Motley Fool Pro team will accept new subscribers to their real-money portfolio service. Motley Fool Pro is investing $1 million of the Fool's own money in long and short positions in a range of securities, including common stocks, put and call options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They also incorporate proprietary CAPS "community intelligence" data into their research. To learn more about Motley Fool Pro and to receive a private invitation to join, simply enter your email address in the box below. 

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Google is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick. Bank of America is a choice of Income Investor. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 05, 2009, at 3:56 PM, whewwee wrote:

    Nope. Not accurate at all. Delta is very well managed. It has global reach, great hubs and very low unit costs. Believe me, this is an outperformer.

  • Report this Comment On January 05, 2009, at 4:07 PM, tim757pilot wrote:

    Delta relies too heavily on connecting passengers and lacks sufficient local population to have adequate O/D in its hubs. The only top 10 metro population true Delta hub is in #9 metro ATL. Delta is a distant fourth to CAL, JBLU and AMR in NYC traffic, with operations split between airports and no true hub there. By merging with Northwest, DAL became far larger overall, but it did not gain a single top 10 metro hub with Motown (DTW), Snowtown (MSP) and Notown (MEM). Now we have the world's largest airline with just one top 10 U.S. metro hub. Beyond that lies their jurassic DC-9 and MD-80 fleet that should have been replaced years ago. The only common fleet type between carriers was the Boeing 757.

    Finally, we have the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression taking place as they attempt to integrate operations.

    They are going to have a very hard time making this work.

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