Icahn's Next Target

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Looks like Carl Icahn has had enough of letting Amylin Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMLN) be a free spirit.

Ever since he purchased shares last May, he seemed to be content just leaving the company alone -- the activist investor even grabbed some more shares late last year without making a stink. But it seems that he's had enough and has decided to nominate a slate of five directors for the board.

Welcome to the club, Amylin. Talk to your friends over at Biogen Idec (Nasdaq: BIIB) and ImClone to hear exactly how fun the board fight can be.

Apparently, since he owns 8.3% of the company, Amylin had been discussing placing two individuals suggested by Icahn on the company's recommended slate. I guess Icahn was either worried that he wouldn't get those seats, or he just wants more control. Even if he gets his five members on the board, Icahn can't quite take full control of the board because there are 12 seats on the board.

The big question is what Icahn plans to do with Amylin if he gets some control. Sales of diabetes drug Byetta, which it markets with Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), fell almost 8% year over year last quarter because of reported potential issues with pancreatitis. Unless he plans to get out and help the sales reps explain to doctors that the benefits still likely outweigh the risks, I'm not sure how Icahn could improve sales there.

He could cut costs at the unprofitable drugmaker -- research & development was 35% of revenue last year -- but R&D is pretty important at biotech firms. Amylin's long-term future is tied to its once-weekly version of Byetta, which is in head-to-head trials against Merck's (NYSE: MRK) Januvia, Takeda's Actos, and metformin, the long-genericized version of Bristol-Myers Squibb's (NYSE: BMY) Glucophage. It's going to need the trial results to win over doctors and patients once the once-weekly drug hits the market.

The last option, and perhaps the most likely given Icahn's track record, is selling the company. It's anyone's guess whether Amylin would follow the route of MedImmune (bought by AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) in 2007) and ImClone (bought by Lilly last year) or be stuck in limbo as Biogen and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) have become.

I'm sure some bottom feeder would be happy to pick up Amylin on the cheap; I'm just not sure Icahn can get very much of a premium until positive head-to-head trials are released.

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Fool contributor Brian Orelli, Ph.D., doesn't own shares of any company mentioned in this article. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On January 30, 2009, at 6:26 PM, Biotechresrch wrote:

    Perhaps Mr. Icahn knows a few important things your article skipped:

    1. Byetta has distinct advantages over any other diabetes drug on the market: a) preservation of beta cells, b) weight loss instead of weight gain, c) superior blood sugar lowering.

    2. The pancreatitus publicity is unfounded. Amylin has shown, based on extensive data from a major health insurance company, that pancreatitus is no more of an issue for Byetta than for any other diabetes drug. Hopefully, the FDA will clear this up in Byetta's new label expected before the end of this quarter.

    3. At the 2008 ADA meeting, presentation of data from the Accord trials showed that Byetta was the ONLY diabetes drug that actually reduced the mortality rate of patients when it was used in intensive therapy to lower blood sugar as close to normal as possible. Others, such as insulin, caused an increase in mortality.

    4. The once-weekly version of what is now called Byetta has been shown to be better at lowering blood sugar than any diabetes drug EVER.

    Sure, there is risk. 1) What the FDA will do can never be forecast with certainty, and b) Novo's Liragulite MIGHT be approved later this year. However, Liraglutide's data on weight loss benefits is much more inconsistent than that of Byetta and its once daily dosing should quickly be substantially trumped by the more potent once weekly version of Byetta.

    Then, there is Amylin's pramlintide + metroleptin therapy for weight loss among non-diabetics that has so far in early human trials shown to be able to safely result in weight loss in humans of 12.7% simply by making them eat less by not being as hungry. Maybe, just maybe Mr. Icahn perceives great value in such a product.

  • Report this Comment On January 31, 2009, at 8:14 PM, BigProphets wrote:

    keep drinkin the cool aid! as long as the current inept, worthless, self-serving management is in place...amylin is going no where. this could quite possibly be the worst run organization in America today.

  • Report this Comment On February 07, 2009, at 11:00 AM, 1Diabetic wrote:

    BigP keep you Jones juice, use the product (AWESOME) and personally know one of the leaders. Great business mind and leader, one of the most honorable men ever met. You have not a clue of what you drivel.

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