Don't Let Heavy Machinery Weigh You Down

First came the whiskers, followed by a furry little face that didn't look very threatening. But now, investors are being whipped by a destructive tail.

Yes, Fools, the cat is now fully out of the bag. Global industry simply fell off a cliff sometime last fall, and the more plant closures and layoffs we see, the more this once-bagged cat resembles a rabid, ferocious lion. After Terex (NYSE: TEX  ) became the latest heavy-equipment manufacturer to reduce guidance this week, the time is ripe to reassess the landscape for these machinery makers.

Back in September 2008, before the feline had extended its claws, Terex reduced 2008 earnings guidance to less than $6.65 per share and watched investors crush the stock. This week, Terex reduced guidance yet again, this time to a range of $5.40 to $5.45 per share, but the shares traded resiliently in the aftermath. The difference, I believe, is all about sentiment, which suggests that markets have already priced in a barrage of earnings disappointments. With a final growl, Terex even warned of a potential $600 million impairment charge relating to tumbling asset valuations, and still, shares refused to head lower.

Elsewhere in the sector, investors are licking their wounds after Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) dumped dismal earnings and deep labor cuts upon them. CNH Global (NYSE: CNH  ) set the mood by forecasting huge sales declines and announcing plant closures to work through burgeoning inventories. Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW  ) posted a fourth-quarter loss last week despite some one-time gains from the divestiture of its marine segment. Meanwhile, mining-equipment specialist Joy Global (Nasdaq: JOYG  ) notably bucked the trend, with a 68% increase in net earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter and a still-expanding backlog of equipment orders.

As we await earnings from both Bucyrus (Nasdaq: BUCY  ) and Deere (NYSE: DE  ) in mid-February, Fools with an interest in the sector have time to review balance sheets and operational outlooks. With stimulus packages under consideration around the world, and indications that some portion of demand disruption is related to credit and liquidity issues, I believe several of these companies will find themselves on the road to recovery by 2010. Now that the cat is out of the bag with respect to a massive global recession and the frightful derailment of the worldwide industrial machine, I believe that a recovery process can soon begin for the heavy industrials with the lightest debt burdens.

Further Foolishness:

Members of the Motley Fool CAPS community have awarded Terex with the highest possible rating of five stars, with nearly 1,300 members expecting the company to outperform the S&P 500. CAPS members are eager to know your thoughts on this company and on your favorite picks, so join the free community today.

Fool contributor Christopher Barker hasn't seen to many crane-filled skylines lately. He can be found blogging actively and acting Foolishly within the CAPS community under the username TMFSinchiruna. He owns no shares in the companies mentioned. The Fool owns shares of Terex. The Fool has a grown-up, high-capacity disclosure policy that played with toy tractors in the sandbox when it was but a wee lad.


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  • Report this Comment On February 04, 2009, at 7:44 PM, tradecorrectly wrote:

    "these companies will find themselves on the road to recovery by 2010"...

    That means they are NOT on the road to recovery NOW!

    Why bother to buy now when you can buy cheaper next quarter or the other next quarter nearer to 2010? Dow is sinking below 8000, man.

  • Report this Comment On February 04, 2009, at 8:21 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    I agree the DOW is likely heading lower, and there is certainly potential for industrial stocks to head lower for any number of reasons, including passage of a stimulus bill in the U.S. that resembles the House versions 5% allocation to infrastructure. I'm not trying to call a bottom here, nor urging Fools to rush into these stocks. All I'm saying is keep an eye on them, keep research ongoing, because this is a promising sector long-term and I do believe a recovery will initiate before long.

    I will be looking more closely at balance sheets, etc. with subsequent articles.

  • Report this Comment On February 05, 2009, at 8:44 AM, SteveTheInvestor wrote:

    I get what you are saying, but must also add that I think a 2010 recovery is quite unlikely. Frankly, I'm preparing for a five to ten year recession / depression. If it doesn't come to pass, then yeah! But I'm done betting on economically sensitive stocks for now.

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