Back in early 2007 I highlighted Cisco
Alex and I aren't alone in our high opinion on Cisco. In The Motley Fool's CAPS community the stock is rated four stars out of five, with nearly 8,000 CAPS members giving the stock a thumbs-up. Among that army of Cisco bulls is ccharlan, whose score on Cisco leads the pack. This investor originally gave the stock a thumbs-up way back in July 2006 and has held on ever since, scoring nearly 17 points for the stock's outperformance.
ccharlan is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and has managed an impressive stock-picking accuracy of more than 60% while racking up more than 200 points. Cisco isn't this player's only great call. Here's a look at a few of the other prescient picks:
|
Company |
Date Picked |
Call |
Points |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Apple |
7/5/06 |
Outperform |
111 |
**** |
|
ExxonMobil |
3/30/07 |
Outperform |
47 |
**** |
|
Hewlett-Packard |
7/5/06 |
Outperform |
44 |
*** |
Data from CAPS.
So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of the most recent calls on CAPS:
|
Company |
Date Picked |
Call |
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
Hess |
9/18/08 |
Outperform |
***** |
|
eBay |
8/22/07 |
Outperform |
*** |
|
Deere & Co. |
6/21/07 |
Outperform |
**** |
Data from CAPS.
While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start further research. I decided to take a closer look at Deere.
Near and Deere
You may notice that ccharlan's picks are only "recent" in the relative sense of the word. The reason is that this investor likes to pick a few stocks and hang onto them for a long time. In fact, ccharlan's profile suggests that you should "buy what you know, and hold on for a long time." Deere, which makes the iconic lawn tractors and is near and dear to many Americans' hearts, seems like a good fit for that strategy.
While many Americans may know Deere best for its consumer-facing products, the company covers a much larger swath of the industrial equipment landscape. The sale of agricultural equipment made up the majority of Deere's revenue in 2008, and construction and forestry equipment accounted for another 17% -- leaving commercial and consumer products as Deere's smallest segment.
This distribution of sales is why some investors see a silver lining on Deere's stock, despite the downturn in consumer spending. Though grain prices are down from their 2008 peaks, they're still elevated, and this could spur spending on farming gear. And while oil prices have tumbled and ethanol isn't on the tip of everyone's tongue anymore, some still see demand for biofuels as a potential driver for Deere's agricultural equipment.
The pending stimulus plan from the U.S. government is also leading some investors to bet on a resurgence in spending on construction equipment. At the same time, Deere is hoping that continuing to increase its presence outside of the U.S. will boost future business.
Deere's stock isn't quite at a perfect, five-star rating on CAPS, but it does sport an outperform rating percentage of more than 95%. leohaas, one of CAPS' highest-rated members, joined the bullish Deere chorus nine months ago, saying:
Taking advantage of the recent sell-off in this company. [Deere] is the leader in machines needed in any agricultural business. And with demand for crops (needed for feeding people, cows, pigs, chickens, and to support demand from the growing ethanol/bio-diesel industries) only going up, so does demand for [Deere's] products.
But here's the important question: What's your take on Deere? Will agriculture and construction help it climb above the market or will the global slowdown pull down this iconic American brand? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. CAPS is absolutely free and already has more than 125,000 stock pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.
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