I am always looking for a good deal, whether that means buying an extra box of Golden Grahams when they're on sale or pouncing on undervalued stocks. The idea that anybody would sell a stock for less than its worth may seem silly, but legendary value investor Ben Graham (no relation to the cereal) tells us, by way of allegory, how we can look out for these situations.
In The Intelligent Investor, Graham introduces readers to a wacky chap named Mr. Market. Mr. Market's game is to pay you house calls on a daily basis to offer to sell you interests in businesses he owns or to buy from you interests in businesses you own. Sometimes Mr. Market will show up at your door very excited and offer you premium prices for your holdings, while at other times he'll be inconsolably depressed about the future and will offer to sell you what he has for as low as pennies on the dollar.
So, to find some of the stocks that Mr. Market is depressed about, I've turned once again to The Motley Fool's CAPS investor community. Each of the companies below had been given a five-star rating (the highest) by our community of investors just 30 days ago:
|
Stock
|
30-Day Return
|
One-Year Return
|
Current CAPS Rating
|
|
ICON
|
(11.8%)
|
(45.9%)
|
*****
|
|
Harris (NYSE: HRS )
|
(9.7%)
|
(42.9%)
|
*****
|
|
McCormick
|
(3.8%)
|
(20.9%)
|
****
|
|
CommVault Systems
|
(1.7%)
|
(20.1%)
|
****
|
|
General Mills (NYSE: GIS )
|
(0.3%)
|
(14.3%)
|
****
|
|
Huaneng Power (NYSE: HNP )
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(0.2%)
|
(13.0%)
|
*****
|
|
Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU )
|
(0.1%)
|
(67.1%)
|
****
|
Data from Motley Fool CAPS as of April 7.
Though the declines above may look like no big deal after the bloodletting we've seen over the past year, we shouldn't overlook the fact that the S&P 500 index soared over 20% over the past month. So, not only did these stocks decline, but they also missed out on one of the best months for stocks that we've seen in quite some time.
But as the table shows, these stocks are all still very well-regarded by the CAPS community, despite their underperformance over the past month. While these are not formal recommendations, they could be a great place to kick off some further research. I'll even get you started with some thoughts on Harris.
Why so blue?
Defense is one of those areas that has the potential to march right through a recession unscathed. If Uncle Sam thinks we need to spend a certain amount of money on defense equipment to keep us safe, are we going to argue?
This time around, though, we came into the recession already embroiled in a war overseas, and it now looks like we could be getting close to wrapping up that entanglement. As a major supplier of RF communications equipment to the military, a quicker pullout than expected could be bad news for Harris. This potentiality has spooked some analysts and investors and was likely the reason that its stock was in the corner with the dunce cap on while the rest of the market was running up like crazy over the past month.
What the bulls say
But let's not get hasty here. While Harris could take a hit from a rapid Iraq pullout, it may benefit from a new focus from the Defense Department.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently made waves by saying that some big name defense projects could be at risk as the department realigns priorities. The F-22 Raptor, a Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) joint, may be one of the first to go. Other major contractors like Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC ) and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD ) may not be in the clear on all of their projects, either.
However, this wasn't a sign of a shrinking budget, in fact, the prospective budget is larger. The focus, though, is on smarter spending and making sure that money is being spent on gear that will be useful in 21st-century combat. What does this mean for an RF communications specialist like Harris? I'm just speculating, but it seems that the new focus could be beneficial.
You don't have to tell CAPS members about the high points of Harris; it's already rated a solid five stars. CAPS All-Star Trimalerus recently became part of the bullish chorus and noted:
I'm normally not big on Military Tech, but communications fall under the category of mission critical tech. The fact that the company spent $600 mil to buyback shares recently is encouraging. I love companies that wear their own pants and are cash flush enough buyback shares when low. Beyond that I like that it is near it's 52 week low.
So, do you think the recent drop has created a good buying opportunity? Or will changes in defense spending squeeze Harris? Let the community know what you think -- head over to CAPS and share your thoughts with the other 130,000 members currently part of the community. Even if you'd prefer to pass on Harris, you can check out a couple of the other stocks listed above or any of the 5,300 stocks that are rated on CAPS.
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