Judging by Starbucks' (Nasdaq: SBUX ) unimpressive financial results, it seems as if consumers aren't quite as willing to pay up for premium coffee drinks as they were just a couple of years ago. Combine that with the case of overexpansion-itis that the company had during the pre-recession years, and it isn't so shocking that Starbucks' stock has suffered.
The question now, though, is how deep the trouble runs at Starbucks, and whether the company can emerge from this recession with espresso machines blazing.
The members of The Motley Fool's CAPS community aren't sold on the java giant's prospects. Though Starbucks has been bumped up to three stars (out of five) a few times, it's maintained a two-star rating for most of the past two years. Some members of the community have stuck by the stock, though, while others have come around to it more recently.
Ocdan, for instance, gave Starbucks' stock a thumbs-up last November, after it fell all the way to $7 per share. That call has yielded 68 points so far, putting Ocdan among the Starbucks score leaders.
Ocdan hasn't quite reached CAPS All-Star status yet -- he's thi-i-i-is close -- but this Starbucks bull has managed to score more than 800 points and outperform the vast majority of all other CAPS members. Starbucks isn't this member's only great call. Here's a look at a few of Ocdan's other prescient picks:
|
Company
|
Date Picked
|
Call
|
Points
|
CAPS Rating
|
|
Ford (NYSE: F )
|
11/21/08
|
Outperform
|
175
|
**
|
|
Fuel Systems Solutions
|
3/24/08
|
Outperform
|
144
|
**
|
|
Northgate Minerals (NYSE: NXG )
|
9/23/08
|
Outperform
|
54
|
*****
|
Data from CAPS.
So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of Ocdan's most recent calls on CAPS:
|
Company
|
Date Picked
|
Call
|
CAPS Rating
|
|
General Motors (NYSE: GM )
|
5/11/09
|
Outperform
|
*
|
|
Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT )
|
5/11/09
|
Outperform
|
***
|
|
Honeywell (NYSE: HON )
|
5/8/09
|
Outperform
|
****
|
Data from CAPS.
While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start some further research. I decided to take a closer look at Honeywell.
An odds-off favorite?
If the stock market were a horse race -- which it sure seems like sometimes -- Honeywell would be a seasoned thoroughbred with some pretty attractive odds right now.
The company generates most of its revenue from two of its four segments -- aerospace, where it competes with the likes of GE (NYSE: GE ) and Raytheon, and automation and control systems, where it goes head-to-head with companies such as United Technologies.
Despite that tough competition, Honeywell has a long history of growth, strong returns on equity, and rewarding its shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases. But investors don't seem to have much confidence in the industrial giant these days. Honeywell's stock has dropped nearly 50% since this time last year, and its trailing price-to-earnings ratio has been pushed down to less than 10, while its dividend yield has been bumped up to 3.8%.
Most CAPS members who have rated the stock don't seem to share the rest of the market's pessimism. Nearly 95% of the more than 1,000 ratings on Honeywell have given the company a thumbs-up, and the stock currently sports a four-star rankng. Earlier this month, CAPS member sett0047 stopped by the Honeywell page to add another thumbs-up and share some bullish thoughts:
Honeywell will benefit immensely through partnerships with utility companies and its expertise in building automation and controls used to reduce and manage energy usage in large buildings. Much of the growth in the energy space will be offset in the short-term from a decline in aerospace and military markets, but the stock is priced for value today (w/ a nice dividend) and does not reflect growth prospects of many end markets.
But here's the important question: What's your take on Honeywell? Will it show its strength in the face of recession? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. CAPS is absolutely free and already has more than 130,000 stock pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.
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