1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Palm?

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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 135,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, smartphone maker Palm (Nasdaq: PALM) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Palm's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Palm facts

Headquarters (founded)

Sunnyvale, Calif. (1992)

Market Cap

$2.24 billion

Industry

Communications Equipment

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$735.9 million

Management

CEO Jonathan Rubinstein (since June 2009)

CFO Douglas Jeffries (since January 2009)

Return on Equity (average, last five years)

(3.1%) and (29.6%)

6-Month Return

415%

Competitors

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)

Nokia (NYSE: NOK)

Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM)

CAPS Members Bearish on PALM Also Bearish on

Ford Motor (NYSE: F)

D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI)

CAPS Members Bullish on PALM Also Bullish on

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)

Sources: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's, and Motley Fool CAPS.

Over on CAPS, fully 387 of the 607 All-Star members who have rated Palm -- some 64% -- believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include ViolentCapital and JakilaTheHun, both of whom are ranked in the top 3% of our community.

Just last week, ViolentCapital addressed Palm's seemingly Pre-mature price run:

[T]he trajectory on this stock is plain stupid, they are a 1 product company -- a 1 product company that is steps behind the competition in every respect … Fact is that no one major, profitable, financially-well-to-do carrier really gives two cents about [Palm], simply because they have already developed relationships with the larger players that will be sticking around for much longer -- Apple, Blackberry, Samsung, Google, HTC, and whoever else is out there.

In a pitch from two weeks earlier, JakilaTheHun echoes that bearish sentiment:

I believe insane expectations are already priced into the stock. The Pre will probably sell well, but I don't think it will sell nearly as well as the market seems to believe. Consider the fact that Palm is competing in a very crowded smartphone market dominated by [Apple] and [Research In Motion].

Two days after the launch of the Pre, Apple unveiled its iPhone 3G with a price tag of $99. Note that this is $100 less expensive than the Pre even if you include the $100 rebate for the Pre.

Palm also decided to create limited availability for the Pre in its initial run. ... By the time the Pre is available in mass quantities, will it still be "in"?

I expect Palm to retrace back to the $5 - $8 range at some point. Even if the Pre continues to be a wild success, the market has overly priced this into the stock and there are reasons to believe that once the initial buzz around the Pre dies out, that Palm is in for hard times again.

What do you think about Palm, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. More than 135,000 investors are waiting to hear what you have to say. CAPS is 100% free, so simply click here to get started.

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. Google is a Rule Breakers recommendation. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 29, 2009, at 10:09 AM, glamajamma wrote:

    Please do not pay any attention to Motley Fool articles. It is a well know fact they have been trying to kill Palm stocks for a while, Even in the face of massive stock growth and the positive analysis from other major institutions.

    I repeat they have consistently been trying to create bad publicity for Palm.

  • Report this Comment On June 29, 2009, at 10:42 AM, wobatus wrote:

    Glammajamma, don't be so paranoid. The Fool isn't trying to kill Palm. First, the CAPS game players are the ones who have given it a collective 1-star rating, and those are readers/players take on Palm. Second, to the extent the Fol is highlighting it, this is merely because it dovetails with and illustrates their investing thesis, which tends to run more toward free cash flow and discounted present valuation of future expected cash flows. The Fool doesn't always get them right, and this is aclassic case where they have missed the boat on the massive price run-up, but likely this more in the nature of buyer beware, don't get caught in the hype.

    I doubt the Fool doesn't acknowledge that Palm could sees future growth and COULD do quite well, but it is laying out the pitfalls and valuation issues by the reader/player quotes it is choosing.

    And I am sure they cacknowledge the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent, so their own advice may not even be to short the stock, although someone with relatively prudent positions and as part of a balanced portfdolio might give it a whirl.

    BTW and FWIW, I think the stock is way overvalued, but I have thought so since $8.

    Best of luck.

  • Report this Comment On June 29, 2009, at 10:47 AM, AZ123 wrote:

    It's more than obvious that Motley Fool is filled with naked short sellers, based on the above comments from those two 'Fool members who commented in this article.

    Notice that there was no technical analysis; just negative bias and negative opinions.

    I made over 20 grand in one day off off Palm last Friday; money that would have been left on the table had I followed previous 'Fool articles: "Palm: Dead on Arrival?" and "Throw This Stock Away."

    These people are absolute morons who waste space by doing nothing more than throw out wishful, hateful opinions and speculation. There's zero value to these e-articles.

    There's no mention of the upcoming Palm Pixie, no mention of Palm being carried by Verizon AND AT&T's stated interest in 2010, no mention of iTunes integration onto the Pre (and please spare me the speculation that Apple will cut it off since they haven't yet. Let's stick to actual facts, not mere speculation), and no mention of Palm going cash flow positive by year's end. Oh, and they also had over 1 million apps downloads since the Pre has been out less than a month, with many more apps on the way.

    Palm is a long term hold as the company's better days are ahead. This stock will continue to rise because they have a clear strategy (the Pre commercials are all over TV, YouTube, Facebook and print now), an esthetically-pleasing product, (we all know people fall in love with their smart phones and it was designed by former Apple developers) an operating system that will appear on other models like the Pixie later this year, and a new CEO who knows exactly what he's doing.

    When Palm releases their sales figures for the Pre, the stock will rise again. The company has a built in set of events coming that will boost the stock each time. (my prediction: SIRI on the Pre and Sprint within a few months)

    That's why their conference call was a success on Friday and the stock price rose; their losses were less than expected, they exceeded all analyst expectations for their 4Q results. And this was BEFORE the Pre was released.

    All the Motley Fool has done since the phone was announced back in January, is post negative article after negative article predicting Palm's failure and demise. Yet, all the company has done is rise in stock value. Fools here can continue to hate with nothing more than negative bias rather than actual technical data because even the data no longer supports their hatred.

    If anyone is reading this who has an actual clue, hold onto your Palm stock. When it reaches $25 - $30/share by year's end, when it comes out on Verizon and the Pixie is out, you'll be glad that you didn't follow the short-sighted idiocy of The Motley Fool's writer's and several of it's "top" members.

    If anyone on 'Fool wants to counter, please provide an actual, technical analysis, not just the standard,

    "Palm is dumb, Palm sucks, I go play now" rebuttal.

    Peace

  • Report this Comment On June 29, 2009, at 11:05 AM, mktcorreo wrote:

    This is another Montley Fool article designed to get hits to the website rather than to provide real information.

    The bashers are all those people who missed the boat on Palm are now trying to bash to get in before the next quarter release of Palm’s earning where the Pre sales will be announced. This will also come as the hype for the Xmas sales starts to ramp up.

    The assumption that there are too many Smartphones is crap. The assumption is that everyone either wants a Blackberry or an iPhone. That is a crap statement. Look the iPhone has its problems and it is not the most Windows OS friendly phone out there. The Blackberry is also not the most Windows friendly. The Pre does both Windows very well and it even synchs with iTunes.

    I like the Pre it works great as a first release. I can’t wait to see how this develops and Palm has always the potential of being a take over candidate.

  • Report this Comment On June 29, 2009, at 11:09 AM, NorthPierCIO wrote:

    Foolish Garbage Reporting:

    If this website ever quoted a firm that is bullish on Palm as a counterpoint, you may have an ounce of cred.

    you quote ViolentCapital, who must be living in a cave.

    "a 1 product company"

    ??????

    Firstly, one product seems to be enough for Apple (don't give me the 'they have two: 3G and 3G S' garbage. 3G is just old inventory being worked out on an updated product line. Kinda like the Centro and the Treo Pro that sold hundreds of thousands of units last quarter. Oh wait, that would be product number 2 and 3 for Palm, if I can count. Can you?)

    Secondly, Palm has multiple handsets in development. Google "Palm Pixie" if you want to do just a minute of research before you go spouting off to support your obvious short position.

    "steps behind the competition in every respect"

    Name a few… UI? Not a chance. Applications? A non event within less than a year. How long did it take Apple to build its catalog again?

    "Fact is that no one major, profitable, financially-well-to-do carrier really gives two cents about [Palm]"

    Really? Verizon already announced that they are getting a WebOS Palm in six months and AT&T's CEO has stated publicly that he would love to have a new Palm on his network. Better check your "Fact(s)"

    Folks, do yourself a favor, don't read this bash trash on this Foolish website. They have been talking down this stock from before CES in January. The stock is up more than 4x since then. Talk about pushing a bad position. Could your lopsided reporting have been any more wrong??????

  • Report this Comment On June 29, 2009, at 1:03 PM, InfoThatHelp wrote:

    BES is what keeps Rim from becoming a penny stock now. A BES clone from Palm coupled with penetration into the American educational institutes, public utilities, research labs and factories will catapult palm stock into the $30 ranch, and this BES clone doesn't even have to come from Palm alone. It can be an academic project dedicated to developing open smartphone infrastructure for American enterprises using open standards and technologies, perhaps IEEE or ANSI.

    That will be an industry unlocking American enterprises from Rim's proprietary monopoly.

    This open smartphone mobile can even be done in a couple of months as a collaborative project across industries.

  • Report this Comment On July 02, 2009, at 2:03 AM, gorfo57 wrote:

    Sort of makes you laugh reading about an already crowded smart phone market. I suppose there were people holding similar views when automobiles represented just over 20% of personal transportation in America.

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