3 Stocks in a Tailspin

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Individual stocks can surge 10%, 25%, or even higher in a short period of time. And they can fall just as far, just as quickly. For example, investors pummeled shares of Raser Technologies (NYSE: RZ) to the tune of 27% on Tuesday after it announced a common stock and warrant offering worth $25.5 million.

Big drops in share price can sometimes signal material defects or new risks. But at other times, they're simply pullbacks along with the larger pessimism facing the market today. Fortunately, we have Motley Fool CAPS, a great resource to help us understand the larger picture behind big price drops.

Is the sky falling?
CAPS contains more than just the crowd's opinions. Its best-performing members' votes count more in shaping each company's rating than do the picks of their poorer-performing peers. That way, investors can intelligently use the collective wisdom of more than 135,000 CAPS members to make better decisions.

We'll use CAPS' handy stock screening tool to quickly zero in on companies that have been slashed by at least 20% in the last four weeks, and which have a market cap greater than $100 million and a beta of less than 3. If you want to run this screen for yourself, please do -- just keep in mind that the results will update with the market.

Company

CAPS Rating
(out of 5)

4-Week
Price Change

Interoil (NYSE: IOC)

*

(20.4%)

CBS (NYSE: CBS)

***

(21.2%)

Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW)

*****

(23.4%)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Price return June 5 through June 30.

Interoil
Stock in Australian oil and gas company Interoil has pulled back from a big run since the start of the year. And just as other energy deals are beginning to flow, investors got a little excited about a report that CNOOC and PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) might bid for a stake in Interoil’s natural gas project in Papua New Guinea. But Interoil hasn’t budged from its one-star status in CAPS and many members remain bearish on the company’s prospects as it’s increased its share count over recent years and continues to burn through cash. Early last month, it sold more than 2 million shares of common stock, and just over 44% of the 435 CAPS members rating Interoil expect it to beat the market.

CBS
CBS didn't have much good news to report with its recent quarterly loss that included revenue coming in short of expectations. Weak advertising sales have led the company to conserve cash and reduce its dividend, but Standard & Poor’s doesn't think that's enough -- the rating firm still expects a difficult recovery in TV and radio advertising and moved to cut CBS’ corporate credit rating. TNS Media Intelligence recently reported that U.S. ad spending on media such as TV, print, and online fell 14% in the first quarter, with the Internet being the only medium to see growth.

Broadcasters like CBS and General Electric’s NBC have been scrambling to put content online to try to capture ad revenue, while other media companies like Comcast and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) hope the “TV Everywhere” movement will keep cable subscribers close. With all the competition for eyeballs, many investors are hedging on CBS, with only 80% of the 329 CAPS members rating the company believing it will outperform the S&P going forward.

Manitowoc
Like heavy-equipment peer Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Manitowoc has been struggling with lower sales volumes and reduced profitability, as construction firms have cut back on capital spending amid tight credit conditions. It's not a complete disaster, as Manitowoc beat expectations by $0.05 a share, bringing in earnings of $0.18 a share, despite some writedowns in its most recent quarter. But the company will rely heavily on the world economy to improve results, since more than half of sales come from abroad. Still, many CAPS members remain bullish on the company, as it has so far weathered the storm and managed its operations well, including negotiating debt covenant revisions. At this point, more than 97% of the 1,789 CAPS members rating Manitowoc expect it to outperform the broader market.

Ultimately, whether or not you believe a fall in any stock is warranted, your own research is more important than collective opinions. CAPS can help you quickly focus your due diligence, and even point out potential pitfalls you may not have seen.

Add your take on these or any of the 5,300 stocks that 135,000-plus members have covered in Motley Fool CAPS. It's totally free to be a part of the community, and the payback is more than worth it.

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Fool contributor Dave Mock habitually looks for silver linings in even the darkest of clouds. He owns no shares of companies mentioned here. CNOOC is a Global Gains recommendation. The Fool's disclosure policy is made of sugar and spice and everything nice.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 10, 2009, at 9:03 AM, kencooksam wrote:

    Another bashing article about IOC. This stock IOC is up 100% year to date. Motley Foll clearly is being paid to bash IOC or is just incompetent.I mean 3 negative IOC articles in 10 days. How much did you receive for this nonsense Motley Fool.?? Where the Fair and Balanced idea!! Here's real DD on IOC, Will Motley Fool report on their mistakes . Don't hold your breathe.Platts IOC to name partners SOON!! Interview CEO Mulacek

    Tokyo (Platts)--9Jul2009

    The InterOil-led Papua New Guinea LNG project is about to narrow down the

    field to "a few" potential partners to take a stake of 25-35% in the

    development, with an eye to making a decision by the end of this year, the

    Canada-based company's chairman and CEO Phil Mulacek said in an interview this

    week.

    "We [gave] access to 30 companies interested [in the project]," Mulacek

    said. "We are now trimming [them] down to a few groups," he said of the

    ongoing qualification round.

    InterOil plans to invite new partners to take a 25-35% share of

    developing the Antelope gas structure, liquefaction and offtake. "We are

    working in the qualification through partners to join our project first, and

    then [the] next stage is the LNG offtake," Mulacek said.

    The interested companies included "a couple of Japanese consortiums," and

    also came from China, Europe and the US, Mulacek said, declining to identify

    any of the parties. He was scheduled to meet a number of Japanese companies in

    Tokyo over July 7-8.

    Mulacek would not detail definitive time frames for concluding the

    qualification round, but said "it is in everyone's interest to get

    negotiations to define [it] as quickly as possible." Speaking to Platts in

    Tokyo in May, Mulacek had said InterOil was planning to make a decision on new

    partners "over the next two to three months."

    InterOil is also drilling the Antelope-2 well over the next 90 days to

    define oil and heavy condensate as part of serialized efforts to certify

    reserves, Mulacek said. The LNG project is based on reserves in the Elk and

    Antelope gas fields.

    "We have certified between 3.4 and 4.7 Tcf of gas as of December 31,

    [2008]" he said. "All the parties have upgraded that to 6.1-7.3 Tcf [in their

    interim reports]. The utilities want 2 to 4 Tcf, so we clearly have more than

    enough gas requirement for the first [LNG] train," Mulacek added.

    The project's first LNG production train would have a capacity of 3.5

    million mt/year and a nominal throughput of 4 million mt/year.

    "They [potential buyers] can now price the gas, but what we cannot yet

    define is the question whether there is 100 million barrels of condensate or

    oil or is there 500 million barrels? We do not know yet but we know it is

    going to be a very significant amount," he added. InterOil's current estimate

    for the field's oil reserve is 100 million barrels.

    "All we can do [now] is work with the Japanese consortium to work out a

    pricing structure," Mulacek said. "As the liquids and oil are finally defined

    then we can proceed with closing. This is the mechanism we are focused on," he

    added.

    "We have had expression [of interest] for 100% of the offtake so we are

    very comfortable," Mulacek added. "In an agreement we design for two trains,

    but we are looking at this one after another."

    InterOil and its project partners PNG's national petroleum and mining

    company Petromin PNG and Pacific LNG, an investment arm of Switzerland's

    Clarion Finanz, now plan to make a final investment decision on an oil and

    condensate development at Antelope this year. Oil and condensate output from

    the project would start up in 2010 and 2011 respectively, Mulacek said.

    The final investment decision for the LNG project is targeted for 2010,

    with production planned to start in 2014.

    Separately, Petromin is seeking an offtake-for-debt agreement with Japan

    to fund its purchase of equity in the LNG project, Mulacek said, declining to

    elaborate. The company is seeking up to $500 million in financing from Japan

    and in turn would offer 20%, or at least 800,000 mt/year, of the project's LNG

    offtake under a 10-year agreement.

    Petromin is also in talks with state-owned Japan Bank for International

    Cooperation and Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation on the

    providing of financial support for PNG's upstream-to-downstream LNG chain.

    --Takeo Kumagai, takeo_kumagai@platts.com

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Related Tickers

11/6/2009 4:01 PM
CAT $57.60 Down -0.39 -0.67%
Caterpillar, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****
CBS $12.72 Down -0.07 -0.55%
CBS Corp CAPS Rating: **
MTW $10.58 Down -0.17 -1.58%
Manitowoc Company,… CAPS Rating: *****
PTR $127.75 Down +0.00 +0.00%
PetroChina Company… CAPS Rating: ****
RZ $1.15 Down -0.02 -1.71%
Raser Technologies… CAPS Rating: *
TWX $31.01 Down -0.12 -0.39%
Time Warner, Inc. CAPS Rating: ***

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