7 Reasons Not to Worry This Week

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This weekly column ran into a roadblock last week. There weren't seven public companies projected to post higher earnings during the week.

New week, same problem.

This issue should resolve itself when earnings season kicks in later this month, but in the meantime, I have to dig a little deeper to find seven reasons to be cheerful. And since we're now facing the highest unemployment rate in 26 years, I'm bringing a backhoe.

1. Let's go Windows shopping
Saturday is the last day that XP and Vista users can preorder an upgrade copy of Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) Windows 7 Home Premium for just $49. The operating system's suggested retail price will be $119 when it officially hits the market in October.

The world's largest software company is hoping that the new platform will silence the cred-crushing "I'm a Mac" ads that have  -- perhaps unfairly -- hammered Windows Vista.

The July 11 preorder deadline is important. The buzz is building for Windows 7, and the preorder's sharp discount is also making the operating system the top-selling product in Amazon.com's (Nasdaq: AMZN) software store. So it's off to a great start, and we can only hope Microsoft will soon spill the beans on what should be juicy preorder numbers.

2. Let's go retailer shopping
Chain stores will post their comps for the month of June on Thursday, and the market is braced for something ugly. Thomson Reuters sees same-store sales clocking in 4.5% below where they were a year ago.

This is the kind of metric that may worry some investors, but I prefer to approach it from a more optimistic -- and opportunistic -- angle. Crummy comps are already baked into the market. How can the malls be buzzing when folks are still losing their jobs?

Well, the buoyant equity markets have had a favorable impact on consumer confidence. Many weaker retailers have either closed down or scaled back their operations. This situation would benefit the survivors, since they should be able to cut thicker slices of the pie -- even if the pie is getting smaller.

There will clearly be some real losers in specialty retail, but the market is also ripe for more than a few surprises.  

3. Lights! Camera! Multiplex action!
An already hot year at the local multiplex should heat up with Friday's theatrical openings for Bruno and I Love You, Beth Cooper. Exhibitors are loving the box-office buzz, naturally. Even though we're in a recession, escapism and attractively priced matinees are helping draw audiences to the movie houses.

4, 5, 6. There is still growth to be found
Even if we don't have seven companies positioned to post bottom-line buoyancy this week, there are at least three notable standouts projected to grow.

Company

Latest Quarter's EPS (Estimated)

Year-Ago Quarter's EPS

Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO)

$0.59

$0.46

Chattem (Nasdaq: CHTT)

$1.22

$1.06

Kayne Anderson Energy (NYSE: KED)

$0.36

$0.32

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Discounter Family Dollar should be thriving in this environment, so its higher profit target isn't a surprise. Getting margins to improve will be the meatier challenge, but Wall Street's finest believe that won't be a problem for the bargain-friendly chain.

Chattem makes over-the-counter drugstore staples Icy Hot, Gold Bond, and Aspercreme, so it also has all-weather appeal. There has been a lot of chatter about penny pinchers trading down to cheaper house brands, but this is probably a bigger problem with foodstuffs at the supermarket than it is at the pharmacy, where loyal Chattem customers are less likely to take chances with less expensive brands.

Kayne Anderson Energy declared a lower quarterly dividend last week, so this report promises to be interesting. It may be the least likely of the three companies above to come through, but something upbeat should come out of either Family Dollar, Chattem, or Kayne. Never look a gift earnings report in the mouth when the market -- on the whole -- is down in the dumps.  

7. On a more Sirius note
I've been following the progress of Sirius XM Radio's (Nasdaq: SIRI) application for iPhone and Web-powered iPod touch devices since its launch last month. It's been a popular download on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) App Store.

Initial demand was strong enough to catapult the Sirius XM app up the charts. It was the second most popular free app during its opening weekend. However, its ranking quickly began to fade. Poor user ratings didn't help. Nevertheless, the Sirius XM streaming program has crept back into fifth place among free apps during the holiday weekend, after dipping as low as sixth a week earlier.

Sirius XM is doing its part to promote the premium-priced service, but its success would also bode well for other developers who want to monetize App Store programs beyond one-time purchases or ad-supported freebies.

At the very least, we may not be as afraid to commit to premium subscription services as the worrywarts would have you believe.

Some other reads to get you through the week:

“The Next Great Investment”… That’s how a top global investor describes India’s potential. On Nov. 28, The Motley Fool’s Tim Hanson returns to India to prove it. Follow along in real time and get his TOP pick first (Hanson returned from China in July with a stock that’s up 169%!). Enter email below.

Microsoft is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. Apple and Amazon.com are Motley Fool Stock Advisor selections. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz prefers to look at the bright side of life -- and strife. He owns no shares in any of the companies in this story and is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 06, 2009, at 2:52 PM, DiscoFinance wrote:

    There is a DVD movie out about the whole Sirius XM/Mel K. story called: Stock Shock.

    Stock Shock explains stock market manipulation as well. Stock Shock is at amazon.com and stockshockmovie.com

  • Report this Comment On July 06, 2009, at 4:04 PM, JPS007 wrote:

    Another example of MF turing good News (1 million copies downloaded in less that two weeks), into bad news.

  • Report this Comment On July 07, 2009, at 8:50 AM, BullishBroker74 wrote:

    By Brandon Matthews

    Traditional forms of media including television, radio and print are threatened by the success of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the organizations behind traditional forms of media have united on a single front to denigrate the Satellite Radio provider at any and all costs. I know this first hand as most of the negative comments left on Satwaves.com can be traced back to everything from terrestrial radio station operators to the National Association of Broadcasters. These traditional media conglomerates control everything most people see and hear. Consider if you will the number 1 hit by the Black Eyed Peas in which the words “Satellite Radio” have been bleeped out by terrestrial radio stations from coast to coast.

    In the years since Howard Stern first joined Sirius, traditional media has made a point of downplaying Howard Stern's relevance. Just last October, the Los Angeles Times published this article which made the claim that Howard Stern was no longer relevant, and that his listeners had dwindled to a fraction of the number that once tuned in. The Los Angeles Times happens to be owned by Tribune; “America’s largest employee-owned media company, operating businesses in publishing, interactive and broadcasting.” The same article was syndicated and republished on an almost daily basis for several weeks that followed, assuring that the story would be told in every major U.S. market and maintain a top ranked listing in google news search results.

    That is why I could not help but laugh hysterically at the newest media attempts to control the American public’s view of Sirius XM Radio through new articles that claim Howard Stern will leave Sirius XM nearly two years from now. These articles now make the claim that Howard Stern is so important and popular, that Sirius XM’s survival hinges on whether or not Howard decides to stay with Sirius XM when his contract comes up for renewal in 2011! Unfortunately, some people seem to be buying into this manipulation and fear-mongering. The reach of these media outlets is unlimited in scope.

    As an example, on the eve of Sirius XM’s announcement that its iPhone application had reached a million downloads, a story was written suggesting that Sirius XM stock would be a good short sale candidate by a known writer who has denigrated Sirius for years. I recall writing that it seemed like a signal was being sent on the Satwaves forums the moment I read it. As trading progressed the following day it looked as if Sirius XM stock would rise precipitously on the iPhone application news. CNBC even picked up the story, but if you follow Sirius XM you knew what was coming next.

    It was then reported that the app, despite having over a million downloads, had a low rating based on the absence of The Howard Stern Show. The very same show that the media has been proclaiming to be irrelevant. The stock ended the day's session flat as a result. Out of nearly 19 million subscribers and out of 1 million iPhone app downloads, the app was given a low rating by a mere 38,000 people. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that anyone can bash the application, whether or not they even own an Apple device. I rated the application 5 stars, and I have no iPod nor iPhone. I simply signed up using my AOL account. It can hardly be deemed a reliable source of consumer sentiment compared to the fact that it remains the number 1 downloaded music application.

    As for Howard Stern, terrestrial radio is already on life support. Clear Channel is knocking on bankruptcy’s door. When it comes to radio companies, there is only one that is growing. There is only one that can offer Howard the freedom to do his show and produce new shows without fear of retribution from the FCC. By the year 2011, it is probable that no radio company in existence would be able to afford Howard Stern while offering him a minuscule percentage of his current national audience. Only one radio company can offer The Howard Stern Show a potential global audience in the years to come. That radio company is Sirius XM Radio.

    As for the media manipulation: People should make a stand. If you’d like to be told what to read and hear only that which is selected for you, you might want to consider a move to North Korea. Turn off your am/fm radios. Pick up a Satellite Radio and subscription. Send a message to traditional media that they cannot control what you see and what you hear. I have and in this lies true freedom.

    Position: Long SIRI

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Related Tickers

11/24/2009 11:15 AM
MSFT $29.93 Down -0.01 -0.03%
Microsoft Corp CAPS Rating: ***
KED $13.45 Down -0.03 -0.22%
Kayne Anderson Ene… CAPS Rating: *****
SIRI $0.63 Down +0.00 -0.09%
Sirius XM Radio CAPS Rating: **
AAPL $203.95 Down -1.93 -0.94%
Apple, Inc. CAPS Rating: ***
AMZN $133.15 Up +0.15 +0.11%
Amazon.com, Inc. CAPS Rating: **
FDO $30.63 Up +0.10 +0.33%
Family Dollar Stor… CAPS Rating: ***
CHTT $67.31 Up +0.06 +0.09%
Chattem, Inc. CAPS Rating: ***

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