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Thank Goodness Buffett Has His Credibility Back

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It's ironic that it took a short-term gain for some to reassess long-term-focused investing guru Warren Buffett.  

On Friday, The Wall Street Journal's Deal Journal blog posted this headline: "Buffett Regains His Cred With Goldman Surge." The headline refers, of course, to Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-A  ) (NYSE: BRK-B  ) $5 billion preferred stock investment in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) back in September.

The deal gave Berkshire $5 billion worth of preferred stock in Goldman that paid a whopping 10% annual dividend along with warrants to buy $5 billion in Goldman stock at $115 per share. With Goldman's share price over $160 today, those warrants are now worth more than $2 billion, and the preferred stock is still paying that sweet $500 million dividend.

How Buffett got his groove back
The investment in Goldman had some people suggesting that Buffett had lost his touch when the shares fell below $50 in November, while a similar investment in General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) is still drawing some cockeyed looks because the common stock is trading at about half of where it was when he made the investment. And that's to say nothing of some sniggers over his bullish op-ed piece in The New York Times back in October -- which preceded another 30% drop in the S&P 500 index between then and March.

The Deal Journal's headline, however, referred to a New York Post article about how successful Buffett's bet on Goldman has been. Still, I couldn't help but chuckle at the idea that Buffett had lost his credibility -- or his groove for that matter -- in the first place.

Not that I should be surprised. Most market commentators and many investing "experts" are so focused on the near term that they're ready to draw conclusions from every single frenetic spasm of the market.

But the idea of investing with an eye toward next month -- or even next year -- has rarely (if ever) been Buffett's modus operandi. Going against the grain has bagged him huge returns on investments like American Express (NYSE: AXP  ) (yes, he’s still way up) and allowed him to take over companies like GEICO when they're selling on the cheap. He also managed to miss out on massive losses such as those that came storming down during the dot-com bubble.

And though his heavy exposure to financial stocks like Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) , American Express, and US Bancorp (NYSE: USB  ) did him no favors during the most recent downturn, the cool $44 billion in cash that he had set aside going into the recession has allowed him to go on a buying spree while stock prices are depressed.

The lesson is clear
None of us really benefits from sitting around talking about how talented Warren Buffett is when it comes to investing. Luckily, we can benefit from learning how he has been so successful.

In the case of Goldman, Buffett did what he's always advocated -- investing in well-run companies with great brands and moats around their businesses, when they're selling at discounted prices, and then sitting on your hands and waiting for the market to come to its senses. Being able to buy preferred shares that common investors couldn't certainly helped, but the core of the investment fit what he's long preached.

Despite the run-up since March, today's market is offering a good number of these Buffett-esque opportunities. In fact, Berkshire itself -- which is trading under its typical 1.5-to-2 times book value -- may be one of them.

However, as smaller individual investors, we can also take advantage of the deals on many smaller stocks that would be of little interest to Buffett because of Berkshire's size. As my Foolish colleagues have pointed out in the past, these smaller companies are often the best opportunities to capture outsized gains. Options broker optionsXpress and refiner Holly Corp. are two of my favorite small caps, but with the market still so beaten up there are plenty of other opportunities that I've had my eyes on.

What stocks do you think would make the best Buffett-type buys right now? Share your thoughts in the comment section below or click over to the Motley Fool's CAPS community and share your picks with 135,000 other investors.

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The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

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Berkshire Hathaway and optionsXpress Holdings are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. American Express and Berkshire Hathaway are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. The Fool owns shares of American Express and Berkshire Hathaway. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days

Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway, optionsXpress, Holly Corp., and American Express, but does not own shares of any of the other companies mentioned. You can check out what Matt is keeping an eye on by visiting his CAPS portfolio, or you can follow Matt on Twitter @KoppTheFool. The Fool’s disclosure policy thinks mauve is the new black.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 28, 2009, at 5:11 PM, TMFBreakerRob wrote:

    Buffett regains his cred based on GS surge? Oh brother! No, he keeps the cred he already had....and the WSJ author loses *his*. Such a focus on short term performance....LOL

  • Report this Comment On July 28, 2009, at 8:43 PM, simonkathrein wrote:

    I admire Warren and believe he never lost his cred... not with anyone who understands how brilliant he is. The GS deal was a win for him right off the bat... his dividend on those prefered shares are fantastic, and no matter what happens to GS stock, he makes his money back in a decade or so just on the yield alone.

    I don't know you guys. I'm no expert, but I'm still very concerned about the state of the US.

    I've been reading a lot of Peter Schiff and Harry S. Dent's stuff....and Dent seems to feel that 2010 is the actual beginning of a depression (he has about 9 solid points to consider including the retiring baby boomers). You couple that with the US debt, the subprime and prime mortgage issues still looming, lack of confidence in the US econonmy and the US dollar just to name a few.....

    I think the economy is still in huge trouble.

    We posted Dent's forecast video on our site from May. He had predicted this Obama rally was likley to occur, but warns that Aug to Dec could be the end and Phase II of the correction will start. Check it out.

    http://stockcapitalist.com/harry-dents-great-depression-ahea...

  • Report this Comment On July 29, 2009, at 1:25 AM, TMFKopp wrote:

    Dent has said a lot of things...

    http://tampabay.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2006/01/02/...

    http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_13/b3674175.htm

    Not sure why we should believe he's got the timing right this time.

    Matt

  • Report this Comment On July 29, 2009, at 2:31 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    I agree with TMFBreakerRob. The people hating on Buffet this year are the same that would hate on Michael Jordan for missing a game winning shot once in a while.

    TMF loses again LoL.

  • Report this Comment On July 31, 2009, at 9:04 PM, lpcustom69 wrote:

    I don't know, but Dent sounds quite accurate on this!

    Too much debt, printing too much money, etc.

    The sh*t hasn't hit the fan yet.

  • Report this Comment On August 03, 2009, at 3:02 AM, thisislabor wrote:

    When people stop being hungry and stop needing clothes to put on their children, then i'll worry about the economy collapsing. tell then we all have a field to plow.

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