August is just a weekend away. Do you know where your earnings reports are?
We're now waist-deep into earnings season, and investors have seen great companies implode and bad ones persevere. Analysts have caught on and are fine-tuning their profit targets accordingly.
The end result is that a lot of beloved bellwethers are expected to post lower earnings than they did a year ago. Let's go over a few of the blue chips and seemingly recession-proof companies that have analysts seeing the arrows pointing down on the bottom line next week. Some of the names may surprise you.
|
Company
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Latest Quarter's EPS (Estimated)
|
Year-Ago Quarter's EPS
|
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM)
|
$0.44
|
$0.58
|
|
Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT)
|
$0.54
|
$0.58
|
|
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)
|
$0.79
|
$0.92
|
|
Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI)
|
$0.19
|
$0.24
|
|
Garmin (Nasdaq: GRMN)
|
$0.51
|
$1.18
|
|
51job (Nasdaq: JOBS)
|
$0.03
|
$0.10
|
|
Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE)
|
$0.19
|
$0.20
|
Source: Yahoo! Finance. EPS = earnings per share.
Clearing the table
Several companies will post lower earnings next week, but these are just a few of the names that really jump out at me.
Let's start with Archer-Daniels-Midland. You thought agricultural enablers would buck recessionary pressures, right? After all, we may forgo fancy cars or new computers, but we all need to eat. Well, it hasn't been that way for ADM as it barrels toward the end of its fiscal year. It posted lower net income during its fiscal third quarter three months ago, and analysts see a repeat performance next week.
Kraft and Procter & Gamble are no strangers to anyone who has strolled through a supermarket aisle. These two companies combine for some of our more endearing food brands, including Oreo, Pringles, and Jell-O. Yet Kraft and Procter & Gamble are losing their "all-weather" ponchos these days. Consumers are doing more than clipping coupons. They're bypassing name brands and opting for cheaper store brands.
Whole Foods Market is the undisputed champ when it comes to organic grocery stores. Supermarkets tend to hold up well during economic downturns, but Whole Foods is positioned as a premium shopping experience. The "whole paycheck" reputation is overblown, but analysts don't see shoppers coming back in droves to the organic grocer until there's more disposable income to go around.
Garmin is a name you'd expect to see on this list. You don't have to ask yourself who is springing for new GPS gadgets in this iffy climate. The better question to ask is whether we even need Garmin devices as GPS-friendly smartphones continue to sell briskly. Analysts predict that Garmin will earn less than half of what it did a year ago. If you think that's gloomy, consider that Garmin has come up short of Wall Street's targets in each of the two previous quarters.
51job is the smallest company on this list, with a market cap of just $300 million. It's probably the biggest surprise, though. The company publishes local job listings throughout China. It also runs a popular site, offering online job-recruitment services. How can this not be a growth industry? China's economy is growing more quickly than the rest of the world, and the workforce is rapidly evolving.
Finally, we have Blue Nile. High-end jewelry has had the cooties since the recession intensified last year, but this online merchant has grown market share and expanded overseas. Earnings dropped to anemic levels last quarter, but the pros see the company rebounding on the earnings front a wee bit this time around.
Why the long face, short-seller?
I didn't mean to scare you. Chinese growth stocks are buckling. Food giants are backtracking. I would buy a Garmin GPS to trace the backward steps, but what good would that do at this point? Many of the companies you know, love, and possibly own are going the wrong way.
Well, keep your chin up. The good news is that investors are already braced for the worst with these reports. If there is an upside to this grim list, it's that lower profitability is already baked into next week's reports. If anything, this all opens the door for unexpected surprises.
The more I think about it, the less worried I become.
Some other reads to get you through the weekend:
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